Though it looks dark for TCU now, the future is bright.

TCU carried the Mountain West banner all the way to the BCS promised land this season. Their powerful defense was supposed to dominate the Boise State offense. Instead, the Broncos, aided by a trick play (which everyone in America was waiting for) edged the Horned Frogs, 17-10.

You know what? I like this turnout a lot better.

A down to the wire finish was probably the best thing that could have happened to either of these teams. A blowout for either side would have meant the loser would have been “exposed” as a BCS pretender.

Had TCU won by 40, we would have been talking about how they only played overrated mid-major teams and were never really tested. Had Boise State won by 40, you’d have heard the same thing. Instead, the game came down to the closing seconds and was an instant classic. A last second interception saved the game for Boise in dramatic fashion.

Closing seconds. Instant classic. Dramatic. These aren’t words you throw around with overrated mid-majors.

Boise will probably end up ranked third when the final polls come out on Friday. TCU probably only falls to sixth or seventh. Most programs would kill to finish ranked that high with only a loss to the no. 3 team in the country.

Obviously, this is a major success for the WAC, but it has to be a step forward for the Mountain West, too. The MWC has fielded a BCS team in three of the last six years. That’s without an automatic berth.

For comparison, that’s more at-large teams in that span than the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-10 have fielded combined.

And while the BCS busters have largely held their weight (2-1 so far), it’s not as though the rest of the conference hasn’t done their part. MWC teams posted a perfect 4-0 record before the Fiesta Bowl. The opposition has been solid, too; their victims include Fresno State, Oregon State, California, and Houston.

That dominance isn’t just limited to this year, either. Over the last three years, the MWC has posted a 9-4 record in bowl games.

Bowl games provide an excellent chance to measure conferences against each other, since they’re in direct competition, unlike most of the year. The Mountain West’s 4-1 record (.800) is better than the following BCS conferences this year: the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC.

That’s right. All of them.

One can only make so many excuses for keeping the Mountain West out of the BCS before they start to sound old. Last year, the MWC complained loudly that they were being excluded. This year, they’re letting their play speak for itself.

So far, they have four impressive wins and one heartbreaking loss in what will probably be remembered as the best bowl game of the year.

Next year, they’ll probably start again with three teams in the top 25 (TCU, BYU, and Utah). TCU can probably expect to be a top-10 team. Though they’re on the outside for now, the Mountain West is knocking at the door of the BCS.

Only time will tell it’s opened to them.

It's the big one - don't risk sounding like an idiot.

The 2009 bowl season is upon us, and it’s time to be confronted with a fact you’ve worked all year to cover up: you don’t know as much as you should about college football.

You know Texas and Alabama, sure, but smaller teams like  Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and Fresno State are beyond you. You live your life in fear that you’ll be caught in an in-depth football conversation and exposed when you let slip that you’ve always thought that TCU is the name of the organization Jack Bauer worked for on 24.

Don’t worry, we’re here to help.

The following is a guide to understanding the teams and matchups in the bowl games to come over the next few weeks, starting with the smaller, more obscure bowls. If nothing else, it will give you a few sound bites to make it sound like you know what you’re talking about.

If you missed it, check out Part I, Part II, and Part III.

Admittedly, these picks haven’t been the best (10-8, yikes), but I stand by my quotes. If you want to sound like you know what you’re talking about (or if you want to sound like an idiot), stick with the analysis.

Fiesta Bowl, Boise State vs. TCU (Jan. 4)

There have been a lot of angry people about this matchup, feeling that the two non-AQ teams were banished to sit at the kids’ table while the grownups played in the real games. There might be something to that, but that’s no reason to think this won’t be one of the best games of the bowl season. Boise State brings the nation’s #1 scoring offense. TCU brings the nation’s #1 defense in terms of yards allowed. The Horned Frogs have held some powerful offenses in check this year (BYU, Utah, Clemson), but haven’t seen anything like Kellen Moore and the Broncos. That said, the Broncos haven’t faced a defense that comes close to TCU’s. This one could come down to the final moments – and if it does, you just know Boise will have a trick play or two up their sleeve.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Kellen Moore is the nation’s most proficient quarterback, sure, but Andy Dalton is no slouch – he’s no. 4.”

Sound like an idiot: “This game is a joke. If they’re not from a BCS conference, they aren’t worth watching.”

The pick: TCU 24, Boise State 21.

Orange Bowl, Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (Jan. 5)

This game has the reputation of the “boring” BCS game, but these two teams are anything but boring. Georgia Tech runs a devastating triple option attack that drives opposing defenses crazy. Iowa has been incredibly entertaining this year, falling behind early and pulling off improbable comebacks behind QB Ricky Stanzi. Both have been tested and have impressive wins (over Penn State and Virginia Tech, respectively). So who has the edge? Normally I’d say the Yellow Jackets, but with Stanzi healthy and ready for action, all bets are off. Expect this game to come down to the final seconds.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “If a couple of plays had broken differently against Georgia, we’d be talking about Georgia Tech as a championship contender.”

Sound like an idiot: “Ugh, the Big Ten and the ACC. This game is always a dud.”

The pick: Iowa 21, Georgia 20.

GMAC Bowl, Central Michigan vs. Troy (Jan. 6)

Wait, what? Right in the middle of BCS Week we get a lower-tier bowl between the MAC and (shudder) Sun Belt? It’s tempting to write this game off, but don’t be so quick to change the channel. Troy has been the class of the Sun Belt for the last few years, dominating the rest of the conference. (Think Boise State in the WAC.) Central Michigan has been impressive as well, led by talented quarterback Dan LeFevour, who has passed for a staggering 12,510 yards over his college career. Both teams have been great against subpar competition, but I think this comes down to the face that Troy just doesn’t have an answer for LeFevour. Frankly, who does?

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Before building up the Cincinnati football program, Brian Kelly built up Central Michigan – and it shows.”

Sound like an idiot: “I thought the USC Trojans already played their bowl game. Can teams play two bowl games in one year?”

The pick: Central Michigan 42, Troy 21.

BCS National Championship Game, Texas vs. Alabama (Jan. 7)

By now, you’ve heard it all. Alabama cruised through the SEC, blowing out #1 Florida in the championship game. Texas struggled through a relatively weak Big 12, being bailed out by a video review and a last-second field goal to win their conference championship. Seems like the Tide would be a lock, right? You’d think, but recent years have taught us never to count out the Longhorns in big games. Since losing to Oklahoma in the 2007 Red River Rivalry game, Texas has only lost twice (to Texas A&M and #5 Texas Tech on a last-second miracle play). The Longhorns’ offense has looked anemic recently, true, and that doesn’t bode well against the Crimson Tide’s ferocious defense, but what happened last time Alabama came into a BCS game heavily favored? Utah not only beat them, but embarrassed them. Could the same thing happen this Thursday? It certainly could, but based on the results of each team’s conference championship, I wouldn’t count on it.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Remember what happened last time Texas came into a national championship game as an underdog? Vince Young, anyone?”

Sound like an idiot: “It’s a good thing Texas made that field goal. No one would have wanted to see a Mountain West team play for the championship.”

The pick: Alabama 31, Texas 17.

You know it's the New Year when you see this.

The 2009 bowl season is upon us, and it’s time to be confronted with a fact you’ve worked all year to cover up: you don’t know as much as you should about college football.

You know Texas and Alabama, sure, but smaller teams like  Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and Fresno State are beyond you. You live your life in fear that you’ll be caught in an in-depth football conversation and exposed when you let slip that you’ve always thought that TCU is the name of the organization Jack Bauer worked for on 24.

Don’t worry, we’re here to help.

The following is a guide to understanding the teams and matchups in the bowl games to come over the next few weeks, starting with the smaller, more obscure bowls. If nothing else, it will give you a few sound bites to make it sound like you know what you’re talking about.

If you missed it, check out Part I and Part II.

Outback Bowl, Northwestern vs. Auburn (Jan. 1)

Get ready for a parade of mediocrity – both teams struggled to stay above water all year, finishing 8-4 and 7-5, respectively. Northwestern has the better wins over ranked teams, owning victories over Iowa and Wisconsin compared to Auburn’s win over Ole Miss. Ultimately, it comes down to whether you think the Big Ten or the SEC is capable of producing a better middling team. I think the Big Ten is overrated, but the SEC even more so. Edge to Northwestern.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Since starting 5-0, Auburn’s only wins came over an overrated Ole Miss team and Furman. Yikes.”

Sound like an idiot: “Sure, they played Furman, but remember, Furman beat Georgia Southern this year.”

The pick: Northwestern 33, Auburn 17.

Capital One Bowl, Penn State vs. LSU (Jan. 1)

This is the biggest bowl game outside the BCS, or at least the most-hyped. Both teams strike me as pretenders; Penn State’s biggest win came over Northwestern, and LSU’s biggest came over Auburn. Both solid teams (they’re playing in the Outback Bowl, after all), but for those to be your biggest wins if you’re top-15 teams? Yikes. LSU at least kept games against top teams (like Florida and Alabama) close, while Penn State laid a huge egg in their big games (Iowa and Ohio State). I expect that trend to continue.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “LSU might be primed to strike in the SEC next year now that Urban Meyer’s…well, whatever he is.”

Sound like an idiot: “Geaux Lions. I mean, Tigers.”

The pick: LSU 21, Penn State 7.

Gator Bowl, West Virginia vs. Florida State (Jan. 1)

Much has been made out of this being Bobby Bowden’s last game and how he’ll have the team playing out of their minds for him. Yeah, I don’t buy it. If the team were capable of pushing it to another level, don’t you think we would have seen that by now? 6-6 in a mediocre ACC speaks for itself. I expect West Virginia to roll here.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Christian Ponder can destroy you with his arm and with his legs – he’s like Vince Young 2.0.”

Sound like an idiot: “The Gator Bowl? How can that be – Florida isn’t even playing in it!”

The pick: West Virginia 31, Florida State 6.

Rose Bowl, Ohio State vs. Oregon (Jan. 1)

The conventional wisdom is that Oregon’s speed and versatility will be too much for conservative Ohio State. We’ve heard it so much that Oregon is probably starting to believe it. Maybe they’re getting a little complacent. Maybe Ohio State is getting fired up and living off the underdog label. Or maybe it’s legit and we’re looking for Ohio State to lose their fourth straight BCS bowl game. Which do you think is more likely?

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Jacquizz Rodgers gets all the hype, but LaMichael James might be the best running back in the state of Oregon.”

Sound like an idiot: “What kind of Mickey Mouse organization would name a team the Ducks?”

The pick: Oregon 34, Ohio State 21.

Sugar Bowl, Cincinnati vs. Florida (Jan. 1)

Both of these teams saw a shot at the national championship slip through their fingers. Both of them have watched their coach abandon them before their bowl game. And, you know, they’re playing in New Orleans. With all these distractions, the game is a complete tossup. In a situation like this, the team that has played better down the stretch probably has the best shot. The one that wasn’t almost blowing games to huge underdogs repeatedly. Yes, that would be the Gators. It’ll be close, but expect Florida to come out on top.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “With neither coach returning next year, both Cincy and Florida could take a huge step backward in 2010.”

Sound like an idiot: “Please, there’s no way a Big East team could hang with an SEC team.”

The pick: Florida 24, Cincinnati 21.

International Bowl, Northern Illinois vs. South Florida (Jan. 2)

Both teams come in with 7-5 marks and middling conference records. They look pretty even, so it basically comes down to which team has a better history of showing up in big games. Or at least not choking in them. (Brace yourself, Bulls fans.)

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Northern Illinois is one of the best mid-major schools you never hear about.”

Sound like an idiot: “The game is in Toronto? Don’t they call football soccer up there, or something?”

The pick: Northern Illinois 20, South Florida 19.

Papajohns.com Bowl, South Carolina vs. UConn (Jan. 2)

Two teams headed in different directions. South Carolina started hot before falling on their face, losing 4 of their last 6. UConn looked horrible to start, but the death of teammate Jasper Howard galvanized them and inspired them to win their last 3 games. Not only does South Carolina excel in disappearing in big games, but if you don’t think the Huskies are going to win this one for Howard, you’re crazy.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “The Gamecocks beat both North Carolina State and South Carolina State this year. Real impressive, guys.”

Sound like an idiot: “It’s still the Big East. Like a team from the Big East could ever hang with an SEC team.”

Stay tuned for Part IV.

The Chick-Fil-A Bowl? Or the Insight Bowl?

The 2009 bowl season is upon us, and it’s time to be confronted with a fact you’ve worked all year to cover up: you don’t know as much as you should about college football.

You know Texas and Alabama, sure, but smaller teams like  Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and Fresno State are beyond you. You live your life in fear that you’ll be caught in an in-depth football conversation and exposed when you let slip that you’ve always thought that TCU is the name of the organization Jack Bauer worked for on 24.

Don’t worry, we’re here to help.

The following is a guide to understanding the teams and matchups in the bowl games to come over the next few weeks, starting with the smaller, more obscure bowls. If nothing else, it will give you a few sound bites to make it sound like you know what you’re talking about.

If you missed it, check out Part I.

Music City Bowl, Kentucky vs. Clemson (Dec. 27)

It’s tempting to simplify this to SEC vs. ACC, but remember, Clemson was nearly in the Orange Bowl this year. Both teams had nearly identical records, and both have an impressive list of schools they lost to (Alabama, Florida, TCU, and Georgia Tech). Clemson’s fear of the big stage probably doesn’t play a factor here because, well, it’s Nashville.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Both teams lost to South Carolina this year, but only one played them close. Go ‘Cats!”

Sound like an idiot: “I expect John Wall to be the difference maker here. Go ‘Cats!”

The pick: Clemson 30, Kentucky 17

Independence Bowl, Texas A&M vs. Georgia (Dec. 28)

If defense really isn’t your thing, then this is the game to watch. Both the Aggies and the Bulldogs can roll up the points, and to make things better, both have paper-thin defenses. Ultimately, this game probably comes down to who has the ball last, but it ought to be an entertaining ride.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “A&M nearly knocked off Texas. Georgia shouldn’t be nearly as tough.”

Sound like an idiot: “Total mismatch for Georgia. SEC supremacy!”

The pick: Georgia 45, Texas A&M 42

Eaglebank Bowl, UCLA vs. Temple (Dec. 29)

Temple is playing in a bowl game for just the second time ever, so you know they’re a little excited. UCLA wasn’t great this year, but they’ve been tested in the brutal Pac-10. Temple ought to make a game out of it, but expect them to fall short in the end.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Nine straight wins is nine straight wins, even if they’re in the MAC. Temple is a legit team.”

Sound like an idiot: “A bruin could eat an owl.”

The pick: UCLA 20, Temple 6

Champs Sports Bowl, Miami (FL) vs. Wisconsin (Dec. 29)

Miami is a program on the rise, but their biggest wins this season (besides Georgia Tech) came over dramatically overrated Oklahoma and Florida State teams. Wisconsin is also on the rise, but their best win was an overtime nail-biter over Fresno State. The bottom line? I’ll take the team with one quality win over the team with none, thanks.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Playing in Orlando in December is nice, but next year the ‘Canes will be playing in Miami in January. You know, the Orange Bowl.”

Sound like an idiot: “Big Ten teams have historically done well against Florida teams in bowl games. Right?”

The pick: Miami 31, Wisconsin 17

Humanitarian Bowl, Bowling Green vs. Idaho (Dec. 30)

Both teams posted a 7-5 record in 2009, but Bowling Green rang up six wins against the MAC, while Idaho only went 4-4 in WAC play. I don’t know what that tells us, since both conferences are atrocious, so I’ll take Idaho, a team amped to be playing in a bowl for the first time since the Stone Age and in front of a home crowd to boot.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Even when they lose, the Vandals can still light up the scoreboard. Good luck, Bowling Green.”

Sound like an idiot: “Don’t forget, Bowling Green beat Sun Belt champion Troy this year. So there’s something.”

The pick: Idaho 45, Bowling Green 20

Holiday Bowl, Arizona vs. Nebraska (Dec. 30)

If a couple of plays had broken differently (against Oregon and Texas), this could easily have been a BCS game. The matchup is the classic case of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. The Huskers’ defense, anchored by Ndamukong Suh, allows just over 11 points per game. The Wildcats’ offense scores just under 30 a game. Something has to give.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Ndamukong Suh would have won the Heisman this year if it weren’t so biased toward offensive players.”

Sound like an idiot: “Ndomokung…Ndamikeng, Ndamu…Donkey Kong?”

The pick: Nebraska 13, Arizona 12

Armed Forces Bowl, Houston vs. Air Force (Dec. 31)

These two teams ought to be pretty familiar with each other by now – it’s the third time they’ve faced each other in the last two years. Houston’s offense, led by QB Case Keenum, knows how to score, having hung 73 on Rice, but Air Force is no slouch either, having dropped 72 on Nicholls State. Here’s hoping the scoreboard operators brought some extra light bulbs.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Air Force has consistently exceeded expectations in the Mountain West for the last few years.”

Sound like an idiot: “You just know those crooked Armed Forces Bowl refs are going to favor Air Force.”

The pick: Houston 55, Air Force 31

Sun Bowl, Oklahoma vs. Stanford (Dec. 31)

The Sun Bowl features two teams headed in dramatically different directions. Two years ago, Stanford was a bottom-feeder in the Pac-10 until their dramatic upset over USC as a 42-point underdog. Oklahoma was a national juggernaut until Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending injury against BYU in an upset loss. The Sooners’ defense is still stout, but Toby Gerhart will probably prove too much for them.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Stanford has the chops to challenge for the Pac-10 crown next year.”

Sound like an idiot: “Oklahoma might not be the Big 12 champion, but at least they won their divi… no… well, at least they won their state championship!”

The pick: Stanford 21, Oklahoma 17

Texas Bowl, Navy vs. Missouri (Dec. 31)

Both teams posted 8-4 records this year, but it might surprise you to hear that Navy actually had the tougher schedule. The fact that Navy’s win over Notre Dame was better than any of Missouri’s wins tells you all you need to know. Wins over Iowa State, Illinois, and Furman don’t exactly fill me with confidence.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Everyone talks about Georgia Tech’s triple option, but Navy’s been running that scheme for years.”

Sound like an idiot: “If you cheer for Missouri, the terrorists win. Support our troops!”

The pick: Navy 27, Missouri 20

Insight Bowl, Minnesota vs. Iowa State (Dec. 31)

Both teams are 6-6. Both teams went 3-5 in conference play. Both teams laid a huge egg against ranked opponents. Your guess is as good as mine. When in doubt, go with the team that’s excited to be there, which is Iowa State, headed to a bowl game for the first time since 2005.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “The Cyclones may just be 6-6 this year, but they’re a program on the rise in the Big 12.”

Sound like an idiot: “Minnesota and Iowa State? Shouldn’t this be a hockey game?”

The pick: Iowa State 21, Minnesota 20

Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee (Dec. 31)

These two teams combined have four losses to teams appearing in BCS games (Florida, Alabama x2, and Georgia Tech). However, Virginia Tech only has one other loss, while Tennessee also lost to Ole Miss and UCLA. The Vols are headed in the right direction under new head coach Lane Kiffin, but they still have a little way to go before they can hang with the Hokies.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Tennessee QB Johnathan Crompton is worlds better than he was last year.”

Sound like an idiot: “They’ll be singing ‘Rocky Top’ all night long after beating Florida. Er, I mean, Virginia Tech.”

The pick: Virginia Tech 34, Tennessee 10.

Part III to come.

The NCAA's 30th most prestigious bowl destination.

The 2009 bowl season is upon us, and it’s time to be confronted with a fact you’ve worked all year to cover up: you don’t know as much as you should about college football.

You know Texas and Alabama, sure, but smaller teams like  Ohio, Middle Tennessee, and Fresno State are beyond you. You live your life in fear that you’ll be caught in an in-depth football conversation and exposed when you let slip that you’ve always thought that TCU is the name of the organization Jack Bauer worked for on 24.

Don’t worry, we’re here to help.

The following is a guide to understanding the teams and matchups in the bowl games to come over the next few weeks, starting with the smaller, more obscure bowls. If nothing else, it will give you a few sound bites to make it sound like you know what you’re talking about.

New Mexico Bowl, Fresno State vs. Wyoming (Dec. 19)

Fresno State has been an up-and-coming non-AQ team over the last few years that hasn’t been able to break through yet. Still, they’re 8-4 this year and a tough matchup for Wyoming , who went just 6-6. Still, the Cowboys played Texas tough for a half in Laramie this year before succumbing to the inevitable. Look for the Bulldogs to win this one comfortably.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Fresno State could be the next Boise State.”

Sound like an idiot: “Wyoming could be the next Boise State.”

St. Petersburg Bowl, Central Florida vs. Rutgers (Dec. 19)

Both teams are 8-4, but Rutgers has been tested more in the Big East than UCF was in Conference USA. Though Rutgers fell short of their high expectations early, they closed the season strong. Don’t sleep on UCF, though – they have a potent offense and knocked off #15 Houston a few weeks ago.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Knights and Scarlet Knights? What a great matchup!”

Sound like an idiot: “Rutgers doesn’t have a prayer. They’re just a bunch of nappy-headed hoes.”

New Orleans Bowl , Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee (Dec. 20)

Southern Miss has quietly been one of the most consistent non-AQ teams over the last few years. Though they went just 7-5 in Conference USA, they are a tough opponent for the Blue Raiders. MTSU posted a 9-3 record in the Sun Belt, playing runners-up to champions Troy. This one could be a shootout, with each team averaging over 30 points per game.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Everyone talks about Houston, but Southern Miss was the class of the C-USA this year.”

Sound like an idiot: “I’ve always liked Middle Tennessee’s new coach, Lane Kiffin.”

Las Vegas Bowl, Oregon State vs. BYU (Dec. 22)

This is one of the best matchups outside the BCS, being one of just four non-BCS bowl games to feature two ranked teams. BYU fields a high-flying pass offense, while Oregon State boasts a vicious running attack led by Jacquizz Rodgers. A win here for BYU could give us two top-10 MWC teams for the second year in a row.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Five straight Las Vegas Bowls for BYU? Aren’t they getting tired of them yet?”

Sound like an idiot: “Oregon State is a classless university.”

Poinsettia Bowl, Utah vs. California (Dec. 23)

Utah and California both started 2009 highly touted, but both took a tumble in the rankings after big losses to top-10 teams. Cal running back Jahvid Best, out since sustaining a concussion against Oregon State, could be the difference maker if he comes back.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Look for Utah to stretch their bowl game winning streak to nine.”

Sound like an idiot: “Utah? Since when has a Mountain West team been any good?”

Hawaii Bowl, Nevada vs. Southern Methodist (Dec. 24)

The Hawaii Bowl features two teams on the rise. Nevada was a dark-horse BCS-buster candidate at the beginning of the season, and SMU has risen from mediocrity under second-year head coach June Jones. Nevada might run away with this one, though; the Wolfpack average over 40 points per game.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Nevada has the chops to challenge Boise State in the WAC.”

Sound like an idiot: “The Mustangs? Weren’t they put to death a few years ago?”

Little Caesars Bowl, Marshall vs. Ohio (Dec. 26)

You’d think this one would be a snoozer, and there’s reason to think you might be right. Marshall squeezed into a bowl game at 6-6, while Ohio played for the MAC championship, finishing 9-4. Barring a miracle, look for Ohio to cruise.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Watch out for the Bobcats. They nearly knocked off Ohio State last year.”

Sound like an idiot: “I am Marshall! I AM MARSHALL!”

Meineke Car Care Bowl, Pittsburgh vs. UNC (Dec. 26)

This is a solid matchup between two teams who had high expectations at the beginning of the year. Pitt came within an extra point attempt of the Sugar Bowl, while UNC contended for the ACC crown for most of the season. Both teams feature stout defenses, so it may come down to the team that finds a way to impose its offense.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Pitt running back Dion Lewis will win a Heisman before he graduates.”

Sound like an idiot: “Pitt vs. UNC? Count me in! I love basketball!”

Emerald Bowl, Boston College vs. USC (Dec. 26)

Who would have thought that USC and Boston College would have the same record at the end of the year? USC has seriously underachieved this year, dropping 3 of their last 5 games. Boston College, on the other hand, overachieved, being picked by many to finish near the bottom of the ACC. USC might be disappointed to be here and come out flat, setting up an upset for the Eagles.

Sound like you know what you’re talking about: “Looks like USC finally has to rebuild instead of reload.”

Sound like an idiot: “USC ought to be grateful to be out of the Rose Bowl. I’m sure it was getting boring for them.”

Part II to follow.

Non-AQ teams like Boise State are running toward a bright future, or at least away from a crappy past.

The conventional wisdom in the college football world is that the BCS is systematically keeping the little guy down, preventing any school outside the six automatically-qualifying conferences from playing for the national championship. A cursory look at the final BCS standings over the last 12 years bears that out. Not only has a non-AQ (shorthand for non-automatic qualifier) school never played for the championship, but none had ever been ranked higher than sixth until this year.

And yet I’m here to tell you that the BCS has not only helped non-AQ schools, but that it’s probably the best thing that could have happened to them.

I’ll give you a second to wrap your head around that.

Skeptical? I don’t blame you. After all, most of what we hear about the BCS is how unfair it is, how it’s biased toward glamorous, traditional powerhouses, and about how it screws the little guy out of a chance to win a championship.

It sure does. Isn’t it great?

If there’s no BCS to keep Tulane and Marshall out of a big-time bowl game in 1998 and 1999, would anybody have talked about them at all those years? (Granted, we don’t talk about them much today. Quick, try to name either of their team names.)

Without a BCS system that relegated #6 Utah to playing #20 Pittsburgh in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, does anyone talk about how they were chiseled out of a chance to play for a championship?

Without a BCS system that did the same thing to an undefeated Boise State team in 2006, do we ever get to see one of the sport’s greatest upsets ever against Oklahoma?

The list goes on. Every time a non-AQ team gets the shaft – and it seems to be happening every year lately – we hear more about the team than we ever would have normally. Being denied a chance to play for the national title might be the best thing that could have happened to Utah, Boise State, and TCU.

Sure, playing for the championship would have been exciting, but being kept on the outside means more media coverage, which keeps you in voters’ minds, which makes you…a traditional school.

Think about that for a moment.

Those three schools have been in the final BCS standings more than any other non-AQ team. Boise State has as many appearances as Michigan. TCU has more appearances than Alabama. Both BYU and Utah have as many appearances as Auburn.

After a while, these teams start to make appearances in the BCS standings purely on reputation.

You see it all the time with established teams. Oklahoma clung to a spot in the top 25 this year long after they had been exposed as a mediocre team. USC finished 24th this year despite four losses, three of which came in the last five weeks.

And now there’s evidence some of the unprivileged schools are getting the same treatment.

Consider Utah. Despite an underwhelming 9-3 season, they still finished 23rd. Their best win this season was a 23-16 win over Air Force. In overtime.

Yet when pollsters submit their votes, I’d be surprised if they’re not still remembering the Utes’ 31-17 thrashing of Alabama in last year’s Sugar Bowl.

Boise State gets the same treatment. Despite only one quality win (Oregon), and several close shaves against sub-par competition (Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, and UC Davis), they’ve been a top-10 team all year. You think voters aren’t still remembering the 2006 Fiesta Bowl?

As more and more non-AQ schools make their way into BCS bowls, voters are also inclined to think more kindly of their non-AQ brethren.

Take a look at BYU this year. They opened with an impressive win over Oklahoma, but stumbled against a weak Florida State team and didn’t have another quality win until edging Utah in overtime on the last week of the season.

Their final BCS ranking? 14th.

The total number of non-AQ teams appearing in the final BCS standings has been steadily on the rise, too. Since 2005, at least one more non-AQ team appeared in the final BCS standings than the year before. It would have remained constant this year (5 in 2008, 4 in 2009) if Central Michigan could have made the jump from 26th to 25th over Wisconsin, but alas.

Don’t get me wrong. As an alum of a mid-major, I hate the BCS. It frustrates me to see deserving schools kept from having a fair shot at the championship each year.

But looking at history, I can’t help but think it’s been good for us overall. We may not have a crystal football yet, but there’s one thing we’ve earned that we didn’t have five short years ago.

Respect.

(By the way, it’s the Tulane Green Wave and the Marshall Thundering Herd.)

The Oregon Ducks and the Oregon State Beavers squared off for supremacy in one of the toughest conferences in the nation this year.

We all got what we were waiting for. SEC heavyweights Alabama and Florida mixed it up in Atlanta, marking the first time the nation’s #1 and #2 teams faced each other in a conference championship. Based on the fact that neither of these two teams were ranked lower than #4 during the entire season and that SEC teams have won the last three national championships, it seems like a lock to say that the SEC was the strongest conference in the nation this year.

Right?

The fact that the question is being asked at all means there’s some uncertainty. Figuring out which conference is the strongest is no simple task. Teams generally schedule just four non-conference games each season, and those games rarely feature power teams against each other.

It gets worse when you remember that only the top 25 teams are ranked. That helps to sort things out at the top, but it does little for determining the strength of the remaining 84 teams in the country.

So where do we begin? It seems that the best way to tell which conference is the strongest, top to bottom, would be looking at their record against non-conference teams. Logically, the conference that wins the most games, on average, against other conferences should be the strongest.

No contest there. The SEC posted a staggering 42-6 record against non-conference foes this year. The Big East and Big Ten round out the top three, boasting records of 32-8 and 35-13, respectively.

Of course, it’s not as simple as all that. Winning 88% of your non-conference games is impressive, certainly, but the quality of the competition certainly has to be taken into account. SEC non-conference opponents combined this year to win just 38% of their games, good for an average record of 4-8.

.380 is good for the lowest non-conference win percentage, meaning weakest out-of-conference schedule, of any of the 11 FBS conferences, and is a full game worse than the average strength of schedule for a non-conference slate (.454).

This isn’t to say that the other conferences are much better. Not surprisingly, the other two conferences with the best non-conference records had some of the worst strength of schedule ratings, with the Big East at #10 and the Big 12 at #8 (out of 11).

But does that tell us the full story? Not quite. Sometimes wins and losses can be misleading.

Take Connecticut, for instance. On the surface, their 7-5 record suggests a somewhat mediocre team. But if you look a bit deeper, you find that three of their losses came to ranked teams (#19 UNC, #23 West Virginia, and #5 Cincinnati) by a total of eight points, and that they lost to a fourth (Pittsburgh) that was on the verge of being ranked by just three points.

That’s the mark of a good team that just suffered some heartbreaking losses.

That’s why I like to look at things through the lens of scoring margin. Teams with a high scoring margin win by more points, on average, than those with a lower scoring margin. It’s not foolproof, certainly, since there’s still strength of schedule to be considered, but it does a good job of weeding out weaker teams.

Looking at the scoring margin of non-conference slates reveals more than we initially saw. The SEC’s opponents combined to win just 38% of their games, but they were also outscored, on average, by 8.5 points. Five teams put up a scoring margin in that range this year: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisville, Colorado State, Ball State, and North Texas.

They averaged just over three wins each this season.

That’s not to say that the SEC is collectively picking on weaker teams to inflate their win totals, but looking at the teams above, it’s certainly not outside the realm of imagination to see non-conference slates like that.

Meanwhile, on the high end of the strength of schedule ladder, we find the Sun Belt (.558) and Conference USA (.509). Of course, they tend to have difficult non-conference schedules because power conferences look to them to provide easy victories. Florida International, a Sun Belt school, found themselves playing both Florida and Alabama this year.

The third-ranked conference, however, is far from a cream puff. The Pac-10′s average non-conference opponent checks in at exactly 6-6, and they posted a record of 22-9 against said competition. Not too shabby. Teams with a similar scoring margin to their non-conference foes this year include Mississippi State, Purdue, and Minnesota.

Certainly a far cry from Louisiana-Lafayette and North Texas.

It’s hard to argue with the concentration of power at the top of the SEC, with Florida, Alabama, and LSU leading the way. But power at the top isn’t everything. No one mistakes the Mountain West, with their big three of TCU, BYU, and Utah, for the SEC.

The argument you’re most likely to hear from the SEC is that since their conference is so strong, they don’t need to schedule tough non-conference games. A quick look at the standings pokes some holes in that theory. The big three lead the way with 13, 12, and 9 wins, but the rest of the conference is a muddle after that. Other than Florida, Alabama, and LSU, no team in the SEC won more than half of their games in conference play.

Compare that to the Pac-10, which features a five-way tie for second place in the conference at 8-4.

Apologists may argue that the SEC teams beat up on each other to produce those murky standings, but it seems clear the same thing happened in the Pac-10, only their non-conference wins came against stronger competition.

The only way to know for certain which conference is stronger would be to have every team from each conference face each other. If that were to happen, Florida and Alabama would certainly be expected to do very well. But I’m not too sure that teams like Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, and Arizona wouldn’t be able to hold their own.

After all, UCLA, which finished eighth in the Pac-10, was able to handle Tennessee, which finished fourth in the SEC.

I won’t presume to say that the Pac-10 is stronger than the SEC purely on the basis of a few statistics. But it’s safe to say that the perception of SEC dominance isn’t quite as clear as it might seem.

The BCS Championship Trophy—and like every other trophy, its winner is decided by a complex system of polls and algorithms.

This year, Florida is the top dog, checking in with an average of .9868, while Alabama is second at .9513. Both SEC teams have a comfortable lead over the Texas teams; Texas comes in at .9282, while fourth-place TCU comes in at a distant .8689.

If all you took away from that was “Florida, Alabama, Texas, and TCU are ranked 1-4″, don’t fear. You aren’t alone. Most college football fans (and pundits, for that matter) understand the significance of the BCS rankings, but little about what the actual scores mean or how they’re generated.

The BCS average is compiled using three components: the Harris poll, the USA Today poll, and an average of six computer rankings. Each has an equal weighting in the final average. Essentially, you take a team’s showing in each of the three components, add them together, divide by three, and presto! Instant national champion.

The Harris Poll is compiled by (surprise!) Harris Interactive, a market research company specializing in Internet research. Harris interviews potential panelists from a pool of former players, coaches, college administrators, and media members, finally selecting 113 of them randomly to participate in the survey.

The first Harris poll is not released until the middle of September, unlike the USA Today poll, so the initial BCS standings are not released until the Harris poll has been published. Similar to other polls, however, each panelist chooses his or her top 25 teams, giving 25 points for a first-place vote and 1 point for a twenty-fifth-place vote.

A team’s score from the Harris poll is determined by dividing the amount of points they received by the maximum amount of points they could have received. For instance, as of November 29, Florida has 2783 points in the Harris poll out of a possible 2825 (134 x 25). Dividing that out tells us that Florida has 98.51% of the maximum, giving them a score of .9851.

The USA Today poll is calculated in much the same way. However, instead of using former players and coaches as panelists, USA Today uses current coaches. 61 coaches are chosen from members of the American Football Coaches Association and asked to vote along the same standards as Harris panelists. Scores are determined the same as in the Harris poll.

Using current coaches leads to some bias, whether intentional or not. Coaches generally have little time to watch teams other than their own, so it is common to see coaches favor their own teams in the voting or even forgo voting at all, relegating the task to an assistant.

The final component is an average of six computer rankings. Each computer ranking uses its own system, though many components of the six systems are similar. Most of the rankings are based on win-loss record and strength of schedule. Outside factors such as name-recognition and margin of victory are discounted, theoretically leading to an unbiased ranking. Teams receive 25 points for a first place ranking and 1 for a twenty-fifth-place ranking. The scores are then calculated the same as the Harris and USA Today polls.

The standings create a near-constant debate over who should be ranked there, but it’s important to remember that they were created primarily to determine the top two teams in the country. The other 23 are interesting, certainly, but only the rankings of the top two matter in the end. There’s no guarantee that nos. 3 and 4 will play each other in a game.

Now, if you disagree with the way the rankings are put together, that’s another matter entirely. Feel free to join one side or the other and shout yourself hoarse. After all, that’s what college football is all about, isn’t it?

The Trojan Horse was the turning point, as you’ll recall. They built a giant wooden horse and hid inside, and then once the horse was taken inside the gates they popped out and destroyed the entire city.

But wait—it wasn’t the Trojans that built the horse. It was the opposing Greeks, and it was the Trojans that foolishly brought the horse into their mighty city. Given the opportunity the Greeks burned Troy, slaughtered the Trojans, and sold the women and children as slaves.

Sounds a bit like the 2009 USC Trojans, doesn’t it? Minus the women and children as slaves.

You don’t have to look hard to see that this mighty, Pete Carroll-fueled USC empire has gone down in flames, at least this season. I don’t need to rehash how big of a downfall it is for the Trojans, but you know I’m going to anyway.

Yes, it was the first time that USC has ever lost a November game under Carroll. Yes, the Stanford game was the most points (55) given up by a USC team, ever. Yes, this season is going to break their streaks of seven straight Pac-10 championships, seven straight BCS bowls, and seven straight seasons ending the season ranked #4 or above.

*@&%.

There’s been plenty of finger-pointing, and in various directions. Some blame the true freshman quarterback, others blame the slew of defensive starters that left for the NFL, still others blame the exodus of Carroll’s high-level assistants like Norm Chow and Steve Sarkisian.

I’ll throw one more thought into the mix, and it points the finger somewhere in the vicinity of Pete Carroll.

But I’ll be clear—I feel strongly that Pete Carroll is the greatest coach in college football right now, and right up there with the greatest of all time. He is, more or less, single-handedly responsible for bringing USC’s program back to prominence and keeping it there.

And he’s done it with recruiting. Carroll is the country’s best recruiter, bar none—this is a guy who can recruit a top-level running back to be the third string, who regularly sends his entire linebacker corps to the NFL, and whose quarterback position is a stepping stone to the first round of the draft.

That all said, there are coaches that are better tacticians. Look to Boise State’s Chris Peterson, who has routinely led the Broncos to overachieving without a top-ranked recruiting class. Or look to any of the Mountain West Conference’s Big Three—BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, or TCU’s Gary Patterson—who have all made big splashes nationally with their respective mid-level recruiting groups.

The shortcomings of Pete the Tactician (that sounds like heresy, doesn’t it) become clear with a little digging. It’s most clearly manifest in close games—that’s where the tactically-skilled come out to shine, when the game becomes a play-calling chess match.

USC, instead, tends to win games with its athletes. They blow the doors off with their offense and overwhelm opponents with defense. From 2002-2008, USC’s seven years of sovereignty, they’ve averaged almost 38 points per game, with an average 22-point margin of victory.

But in close games?

In that seven-year span, the Trojans only scored 21 points or fewer in eight games, and in those contests they went an uncharacteristic 4-4. In games decided by one touchdown or less, they went a miserable 12-9.

And in this 2009 season, for some reason, they find themselves unable to dominate with their athleticism as before. While they were able to eke out a 18-15 win over Ohio State, they turned around to lose the following week to lowly Washington, 16-13.

But for perhaps the first time since the beginning of the USC dynasty, they’ve found themselves facing opponents that are both outgunning them athletically and outcoaching them tactically—namely Oregon and Stanford, coached by Chip Kelly and Jim Harbaugh respectively. As you recall, they lost to Oregon by 27 and to Stanford by 34—when they had not lost a game by more than seven points in that entire span from 2002-2008.

It’s easy to make a 6-3 record look like the end of the world, when it’s still a winning record and the Trojans are still ranked nationally. But as a transplant living in the LA area, I can tell you that with the tradition that the cardinal and gold have assembled, anything short of a BCS National Championship is a disappointment, and anything less than a BCS bowl is a travesty.

And it’s very likely that they’ll be back to form soon. Matt Barkley is a potential 4-year starter, and he’ll continue to build on the successes that he’s had this year. The defense will gain experience, and Carroll will keep a steady influx of the best talent in the country. You don’t stay down long when you have that.

If anything worse happens, like losses to UCLA or Arizona or a humiliating bowl defeat, this season will go down as the exception, the necessary regression to the mean. It’ll be the one season worth forgetting in one of college football’s greatest runs at the top of the sport.

*@&%.

The Broncos dropped in the BCS standings (aka, the only rankings that matter) from #4 to #7 this week, finding themselves leap-frogged by fellow unbeaten mid-major TCU—plus one-loss USC and unbeaten Iowa.

And that was after a convincing 54-9 blowout of conference foe Hawaii.

Word around the country (try here, here, here, and here) is that poll voters will pick a one-loss, or possibly even two-loss, team from a powerhouse conference for the BCS Championship game over an unbeaten Boise State. And with TCU from the Mountain West Conference having jumped them in the rankings, it’s possible that the Broncos will get squeezed out of a BCS bowl entirely.

It’s happened twice before. In both 2004 and 2008 (just last season), Utah was selected for a BCS bowl and an undefeated Boise State team was left in the cold. While the BCS system allows for two schools from non-automatically-qualifying conferences to make BCS bowls, it’s highly, highly unlikely that it will ever happen.

Which all raises the question: Did anybody ever believe that Boise State was the fourth-best team in the country, even when they held that ranking?

It’s a tough pill to swallow for Smurf Turf fans, and I can relate as an alum of another longstanding mid-major power. But to really understand the rankings we have to understand where they come from, and why they can ultimately seem fickle and unreliable.

Early in the season, AP ranking voting is predictable. Teams that lose drop down a few spots, and the teams that win typically stay in the same order but slide up to fill the vacated spots.

It’s not always fair, but preseason rankings set the landscape for most of the season. Take last year’s Utah Utes, for example. They started the season unranked, and ended up #2—their trip through the rankings from week to week was a slow climb to the top, as they continued to put together quality wins each week. They jumped into the rankings at #22 after beating Michigan in week one, then were ranked 22, 20, 17, 15, 14, 14, 11, 10, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, and 6 again—apparently reaching their limit, even though undefeated and behind five one-loss teams. They finally impressed voters with their Sugar Bowl win over Alabama and finished the season at #2.

Had Utah started as a top 10 team at the season’s beginning, they likely could have climbed higher than #6 before the bowls were determined—though it’s likely they still wouldn’t have made the BCS championship game.

It’s possible, of course, to jump up in the rankings early in the season—BYU jumped from #20 to #9 this year after beating the then-#3 Oklahoma Sooners in week one—but it’s certainly the exception rather than the rule.

And the rule has held pretty fast for Boise State throughout this season so far. Starting with the preseason, they’ve been ranked 14, 12, 10, 8, 5, 6 (after being jumped by Virginia Tech, who had just beaten #9 Miami), 5 again, and 4, before now dropping to 7.

As the season progresses, which we’re seeing now, that voter behavior starts changing and BCS standings become more important than AP rankings. Gone are the cupcake non-conference schedules. Ranked teams start to play better opponents, and teams are looking for signature wins to boost their BCS standing.

And for a mid-major with no big games left, like Boise State, they may have reached their glass ceiling.

Iowa jumped ahead of BSU in this week’s rankings with a road win over Big Ten challenger Michigan State. With a undefeated pedigree that also boasts wins over Michigan and then-#5 Penn State, it’s hard to argue with the Hawkeyes being ranked fourth nationally. While Boise State had its own marquee win over Oregon to start the season, it’s more difficult to be taken seriously when your second-toughest challenge was a close scrape against Tulsa.

USC also jumped ahead, after exorcising its 2008 demons and beating Oregon State at home. While USC has a loss at the hands of Washington, they also have road wins over then-#8 Ohio State, then-#24 Cal and then-#25 Notre Dame. They’re not done, either—the Trojans could still move up or down with big games coming up against #10 Oregon (in Eugene) and at home against #20 Arizona.

But it’s TCU jumping ahead that must hurt the most to Bronco fans. The Horned Frogs notched their biggest win of the season with a 38-7 on-the-road shellacking of then-#16 BYU. TCU can strengthen its resumé even more with a win over #16 Utah in three weeks.

And Boise State? Their biggest game yet to play is a WAC conference showdown with Idaho. Nevada is their next closest thing to a marquee game. The rest of the schedule is a glass half-empty: San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, New Mexico State.

Even if the Broncos win out, it’s unlikely they’ll move up much in the rankings—if at all—from where they are now at #7. If both teams finish the season undefeated, it’s almost certainly TCU, to the exclusion of Boise State, that will make a BCS bowl—reaping the publicity, prestige, and revenues that come with such an honor.

So, my condolences to Boise State fans. Unless TCU loses a game—which is looking less and less likely—we’re going to have a repeat of 2004 and 2008.

And instead of a BCS bowl, we’ll see Boise State in something like the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.