Lock the doors. Hide ya kids, hide ya wife. Do whatever you have to do to keep yourself safe from the menace.

Blake Griffin is coming.

He is a being of pure, malevolent energy. He is a Category 5 hurricane. He is all four horsemen of the apocalypse. He could probably beat up Chuck Norris.

Whatever you want to call him, it’s pretty clear that the Clippers rookie is one of the most incredible players of his generation. There’s absolutely no question that he’s going to win the Rookie of the Year award this year, barring his demise on the court. No one else is even close.

Consider the numbers he’s putting up this season. He’s averaging 22.5 points per game, good for 12^th in the league, just behind Carmelo Anthony. The next closest rookie is 67^th in the NBA (Sacramento’s DeMarcus Cousins). Griffin’s 12.8 rebounds per game are good for 4^th in the league. No other rookie is in the top 20.

In fact, the player with the closest scoring and rebounding totals to Griffin might surprise you. Griffin’s 22/13 average sounds a lot like the 22/13 average of Dwight Howard. Take a look at their Spider Graphs and tell me what you think:

Now, clearly there’s a difference between their block totals, but remember, Howard is perennially a league leader in blocks. Imagine if Griffin decided to dedicate the energy he spends on dunks toward blocks. Not only could he rustle up 3 or 4 blocks a night, but he’d be swatting them through the roof consistently.

Griffin is putting up virtually superstar-level numbers in just his first season. We’re seeing something special here, and it’s even more impressive when you consider that he’s doing it in spite of the Clipper curse. This special part of Los Angeles has long been where promising young draft picks go to rot and die. Blake’s trying to turn that all around.

He’s doing it with freakish energy and athleticism. We’ve all seen the dunks. On his first night against Portland, Griffin announced his arrival to the NBA with a deafening tomahawk putback that had Clipper fans jumping out of their seats with disbelief. He put up a 20/14 on the Blazers like it was no big deal. Ho hum. Just another day at the office.

Since that night, he’s had 24 more nights of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, topped off by the jaw-dropping 47/14 he dropped on the Pacers on Monday. For Blake, this really is just another day at the office. He’s abusing defenders and scoring almost at will. It’s like trying to stop a tornado, or a semi without brakes. Don’t even bother. Just step out of the way.

Opposing teams seem like they’re waiting for Griffin to hit the rookie wall. Sure, he’s been fantastic through 40 games, but it’s just a matter of time until scouting reports catch up to him, right? That would make sense, if his numbers were dropping off at all. Take a look at his scoring and rebounding over the course of the season, though:

If anything, his scoring looks like it’s slowly tapering upward. He hasn’t had a game where he scored fewer than 20 points since December 11. He’s had at least 10 rebounds per game in every game since November 18.

Oh, and did I mention that he’s still a rookie? He’s only going to get better from here.

All this basically tells you exactly what your eyes do every time you watch him, though. The kid is absolutely insane. He missed his first season with a knee injury, and he seems determined to make up for lost time. He’s throwing down with a fury that might be unmatched in the history of the league. At the rate he’s going, Griffin is a lock to either win multiple MVPs or die on the court in the next decade.

Either way, we’re seeing something incredible. We owe it to ourselves to watch before he ushers in the End of Days and Blakemageddon is unleashed upon us.

Three of these four players will make the All-Star Game. Guess who's getting left out?

When All-Star voting totals were released last week, there weren’t any real surprises with the leading vote-getters. Kobe Bryant led all players in votes, and mainstays like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Paul all had a starting spot. And even though he’s only played in five games this year, Yao Ming is your starting center for the West squad, fueled by millions of crazed, partisan Chinese basketball fans.

The real question, though, is who will earn the seven reserve spots on each team. The coaches for each side (likely San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich and Boston’s Doc Rivers, though Erik Spoelstra could make a run at it) get to choose two guards, two forwards, and one center as reserves, with two more picks being at their discretion. (Injured players are replaced by commissioner David Stern.) While we still have over a month until the game will be played, we’re far enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea who will make it.

Earlier this week we looked at the likely reserves for the West team, which was no small feat. The West isn’t struggling for elite players, and it was a challenge to pare the contenders down to just seven players. However, we find just the opposite problem for the East. Choosing five starters isn’t especially difficult, and the voting totals reflect exactly that. Your five starters in the East are Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade at guard, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett at forward, and Dwight Howard at center. No real surprises there.

In determining who deserves the seven reserve spots, we first need to figure out the likely candidates at each position. Let’s start with the guards.

Two of those names shouldn’t surprise you as potential All-Stars, but Raymond Felton might make you look twice if you haven’t seen the Knicks play yet this year. While most of the credit for New York’s rebirth justly goes to Amare Stoudemire (who will get some love later in this article), Felton has quietly been playing the best basketball of his career. Rather than Stoudemire struggling without Steve Nash, we might actually be seeing Stoudemire turning an average (at best) point guard into an elite player.

Joe Johnson has been one of the league’s best shooting guards for years, but his sub-par numbers and prolonged injuries mean he’s unlikely to make the team this year. Derrick Rose, of course, is on the short list for MVP this year. He’s a shoo-in. If I’m picking the teams, I’d go with Rose and Felton here. If you disagree with my choice of Felton, I’d love to hear who else you have in mind at guard. This year’s crop in the East is pretty slim.

Next we take a look at forwards, which are a bit deeper than guards in this conference, but not by much. Take a look at what the conference has to offer in the way of small forwards:

Other than James, these two are the best small forwards in the conference. Granger made the All-Star Game last year, but he’s regressed a bit this year, despite the Pacers’ increased win total. Pierce, meanwhile, has been as fantastic as ever. Even though his graph is a bit smaller than Granger’s, I’d be stunned if he didn’t earn a spot this year. Coaches tend to favor winning teams with their spots, and they tend to be heavily swayed by past All-Star appearances. Granger has one appearance; Pierce has eight. I have to think he’s going to make it nine this year.

Next, we take a look at the power forward situation in the East, where thankfully, we at least have three worthy contenders.

As mentioned earlier, Stoudemire is destroying all comers in New York, effectively putting to bed the idea that he was only as good as Steve Nash made him. He’s easily the best of this bunch, and possibly playing the best at his position in the league. Amare is a lock to get a spot. (In fact, his vote total is virtually identical to Garnett’s, so he may even get a starting spot on the team.)

As a member of the Big Three in Miami, you’d expect Bosh to get a spot, but the fact of the matter is that he’s hardly been playing like an All-Star this year. (We covered Bosh’s struggles earlier in the year when we took a look at why the Heat got off to such a poor start.) Certainly he’s no slouch, but his low rebound and block totals show that he hasn’t made as big of an impact on defense as Miami would have liked.

Instead of Bosh, what about Atlanta’s Josh Smith on the All-Star Team? It was a travesty that he was left off the team last year, and he’s responded by playing even better this year. He dwarfs Bosh on the bottom half of the graph, suggesting that he’s playing lights-out defense. I expect to see J-Smoove  joining Amare on the team this year.

Finally, let’s consider the center situation. Howard is head and shoulders above the rest, but there are some solid contenders to keep in mind.

Roy Hibbert has been having a breakout season for Indiana this year, and is the major reason they’re in contention for a playoff spot this year. I’d love to see Hibbert get an All-Star spot this year, but his graph suggests that maybe he’s not quite as dominant a player as others at his position have been. You know, like Andrew Bogut. Bogut was another player inexplicably left off the team last year, and he’s responded by becoming the league’s blocking leader. He’s been solid on offense too, so it’s not like we’re struggling to come up with a decent player here.

And then there’s Al Horford, who has turned into one of the league’s best centers this year. None of his numbers leap off the page like Bogut’s do, but he has an impressive all-around game. Together with Smith, he’s part of the league’s highest-scoring frontcourt this year. (No joke. Atlanta’s a much more impressive team than most of us realize.) I think Horford will snap up the reserve center spot here, while Bogut will have to pick up one of the remaining two spots.

So that gives us the following roster for the East All-Star Team:

PG: Rondo, Rose, Felton
SG: Wade
SF: James, Pierce
PF: Garnett, Stoudemire, Smith
C: Howard, Horford, Bogut

Maybe it’s not as potent offensively as the West team, but that’s a lockdown defensive team, which should make for an interesting matchup this February.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or tell him that Chris Bosh clearly deserves an All-Star selection in the comments section below.

This is an all-too familiar sight for Cleveland fans this year.

For seven years, we heard all about the fact that the atrocious supporting cast in Cleveland was holding LeBron James back from his eventual greatness. In his last two years as a Cavalier, James led his team to over sixty wins each season and were a legitimate threat to win a championship each year.

Then “The Decision” happened and James left for Miami. Cavs management decided that while they obviously wouldn’t be quite as good this year, they would probably do alright only losing one player from a 60+ win team. So they let him go, replaced him with Ramon Sessions, and hoped for the best.

And while things weren’t great at first, they certainly weren’t bad. The Cavs knocked off Boston in their home opener en route to a respectable 7-9 start that had everyone thinking that maybe the Cavs could keep their heads above water and make a run at a low playoff seed.

Since then? The Cavs have defied even the most pessimistic predictions with a 1-21 stretch. They’ve only won once since about Thanksgiving, and it’s doubtful they’ll win before Martin Luther King Day, with games at Utah and Denver next up on the slate. Over the last 22 games, they’ve allowed 107 points per game while only managing just over 92 a game themselves. Essentially, they’ve been losing by about 15 points a game for a month and a half.

Last night was the final straw. They came into Los Angeles making a big deal about switching hotels to avoid sharing the same accommodations as James and the Heat, only to suffer what might be the worst loss any NBA team has endured in a few seasons, and yes, that includes that 104-59 beatdown the Celtics laid on the Knicks in 2007. Incredibly, the Cavs managed to score less than those Knicks while allowing more points.

112-57.

Give yourself a moment to think about that. Remember, BYU’s Jimmer Fredette lit up Utah for 47 points on the same night. Even if Jimmer had been playing for Cleveland tonight, they still would have lost by 8.

It’s time to face facts: the Cavs, as presently constructed, are terrible. Awful. Irredeemably abysmal, and Cleveland management needs to blow this team up. Now. Right away.

We had our fun cheering for the loveable martyrs in the early part of the season. Virtually the whole world was on their side when Miami came to town. You’d think a 28 point loss would have been enough to clue the team in, but no, they’ve gamely soldiered on, hoping to compete this year.

Cavs owner Dan Gilbert promised Cleveland faithful that his team would win a championship before LeBron would. For one game this year, the Cavs even had a better record than the Heat. But chew on this: while the Cavs have been mired in their 1-21 slump, Miami has actually ripped off a 21-1 streak. This team couldn’t possibly be on any more wrong a track (unless they were on an 0-22 skid, I guess).

So Dan, I’m addressing this to you. You need to blow up this team. You need to set aside your pride, admit that you were wrong about this team contending, and ship out all of your expensive players. Plenty of teams could make use of someone like Antawn Jamison. Or J.J. Hickson. Or even Mo Williams. Get rid of them and stockpile young talent so you can build for the future.

The city of Cleveland deserves better than repeated 15 point losses. It certainly deserves more than losing by 55 to the Lakers’ scrubs.

It’s going to be painful in the short term, for sure. If you blow the team up now, you could be looking at a 15 or 20 win season, and you can bet your season ticket holders aren’t going to be too excited about that. But if you try to hold on to this team, you could be looking at years of 25 or 30 win seasons, just like it was before LeBron came to town, and I can tell you that if that’s your plan, you won’t have to worry about what your season ticket holders think, because you won’t have any.

I don’t care if you blow up the team all at once, sell it off bit by bit, or wait until the trade deadline to try and see who else appears on the block. Just do something. This is the latest low point in a season full of them, and unless you act soon, you’re just going to see more and more of them. Like when your team has to go to Miami on the 31^st.

The real question, though, is who will earn the seven reserve spots on each team. The coaches for each side (likely San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich and Boston’s Doc Rivers, though Erik Spoelstra could make a run at it) get to choose two guards, two forwards, and one center as reserves, with two more picks being at their discretion. (Injured players are replaced by commissioner David Stern.) While we still have over a month until the game will be played, we’re far enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea who will make it.

Let’s start by looking at the West, which despite seeing its depth decrease this year due to trades (Amare Stoudemire), injuries (Brandon Roy), and decline due to old age (Steve Nash), is still as crowded as ever. Chris Paul will start at point guard, but Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker are all nipping at his heels. We’ve probably only got one spot for a point guard; who should it be? We’ll turn to Spider Graphs (for a primer on how they work, click here) for a visual look. The maximum values on the graph have been set to NBA leaders in each category, so think of each value as a percentage of the maximum.

All three of them stack up pretty evenly, so it’s difficult to make a choice. Parker has rejuvenated himself and sparked the Spurs to the league’s best record. Russell Westbrook kept his team flying high even after Kevin Durant’s slow start this year. And Deron Williams is just playing MVP ball and keeping his Jazz in contention. For my money’s worth, Westbrook is probably the most deserving player, but I’d be surprised if Williams doesn’t get the spot, if only because he’s been left out of the game for so many years. (Thunder fans, don’t worry. Westbrook will have his turn.)

So what about shooting guards? Kobe Bryant (shock!) gets the starting spot here, but the West isn’t hurting for viable options at the position. As I see it, the three contenders are Manu Ginobili, Kevin Martin, and Monta Ellis. Here’s how they measure up:

Despite all the MVP talk we’ve been hearing for Ginobili, this didn’t turn out quite the way you’d expect. Martin’s been doing fine, but Ginobili’s graph almost swallows his whole, and Ellis’ does the same for Ginobili’s. From a raw production standpoint, Ellis deserves this spot. Of course, outstanding players for subpar teams have historically had a difficult time finding their way onto the team. I fully expect Ginobili to pick up this spot and to continue Golden State’s long All-Star drought.

You’d think he might be able to snag one of the two additional reserve spots, but this year, they’re almost definitely going to power forwards. This is probably the deepest position in the NBA right now. By my count, there are five guys with legitimate claims to an All-Star spot at the position. Two of them are locks to get in, and you’ll see their Spider Graphs below.

If you’re surprised to see the names of Dirk Nowitzki or Pau Gasol up there, you probably haven’t seen the Mavs or the Lakers play a game this season. These two have been outstanding and have earned serious MVP discussion. It’s extremely unlikely that either of them miss a spot. So what about the other three contending power forwards? As I see it, there’s probably just one spot to be claimed by either LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, or Kevin Love.

Here’s where it gets tricky. Each is fantastic in their own right, and each has a unique case to make. Aldridge has done this year what naysayers said he couldn’t for his whole career – step up and become the number one option for a team. In the absence of Brandon Roy, he has steadied the ship for the Blazers this season. Griffin has merely electrified the league with high-flying dunks and incredible athleticism. Watching him play is almost like watching someone play NBA Jam for 48 minutes with the turbo button stuck down. And all Kevin Love has done is lead the league in rebounding all year. (You may have heard about that 31 rebound game he had earlier this season.) The real question here is whether the voters will go for a rookie or a player on a terrible team. Love’s probably the best option here, and I feel like he’ll be picked up, but any of these three would be a strong selection.

Unfortunately, center isn’t nearly as deep in the West. With Yao Ming and Greg Oden out for the year and Andrew Bynum already missing significant time due to injury, there aren’t many marquee centers out there. I only found two even worth considering. Take a look and see what you think.

Both are virtually identical, statistically. Tim Duncan has been to about a dozen of these games, though, while Jefferson is looking to make his first. As good as Big Al has been this year, though, I would be surprised if Duncan isn’t chosen over him, purely for familiarity’s sake. (It’s the same reason why Shaq continued to play in All-Star Games well after his prime.) Sorry Utah fans, but this just isn’t Jefferson’s year.

Throw in Russell Westbrook as the final selection, and here’s how I see the West All-Star Team shaking out:

PG: C. Paul, D. Williams, R. Westbrook
SG: K. Bryant, M. Ginobili
SF: C. Anthony, K. Durant
PF: P. Gasol, D. Nowitzki, K. Love
C: Yao M., T. Duncan

And just for grins, let’s say David Stern selects Blake Griffin to replace the injured Yao.

Coming tomorrow: the Eastern team, which has about half the depth of the West squad. Pity we can’t just transfer some of them over there.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or you can just tell him he’s clearly never watched a game of basketball in his life in the comments section below.

The haircut that started it all... thanks to Defcase.

This weekend I had the pleasure of interviewing Defcase, the mastermind barber behind a couple of Ron Artest’s most memorable haircuts. We talked about how Ron got started in having the NBA’s best hair, whether or not his personality is an act, and everyone from Anthony Mason to Brandon Jennings. Great stuff.

Listen here! (16 minutes, 31 seconds)

As promised, check out a picture of Defcase and Ron after doing the Tru Warier cut here, and a few pictures of the Sacramento Kings cut here. There’s more at www.defcase.com.

The full text of the interview is below.

Roger: I’m Roger Pimentel, for HowToWatchSports.com, and I’m joined today by Defcase, better known as Ron Artest’s barber. Or used to be. He’s responsible, at least, for the famous “Tru Warier” cut. Defcase, thanks for joining me.

Defcase: Hey, thanks a lot for having me, Roger.

R: Yeah, no problem. Tell me a bit about yourself and what you do.

D: Yeah, my name is Case, Defcase. I do a lot of work for websites, and graphic design, that’s what I specialize in. As a hobby, I’ve been cutting hair since I was young. I had people lining up in the backyard for haircuts. I specialize in promotions, and right now what I’m doing is helping with these t-shirts. So, yeah, that’s it.

R: Tell me about the t-shirts, and what you’ve got going on right now.

D: Right now I’ve got these Manny Pacquiao t-shirts. I’m working with Team Pacquiao, as you know he won his eighth belt last night, so right now he’s a hot commodity and a lot of people are looking to pick up his merchandise. So that’s where business calls me to be at.

R: Cool. Tell me about how you came in contact with Ron Artest, and how you ended up cutting his hair.

D: Well, I came in contact with Ron Artest when I was in New York. I had a couple of friends who were working with him on music. It was a label called Q-York Entertainment, and when Ron started working on his music, when he first started getting involved in everything, he used to come around and we started shooting music videos for him. I was working on all the marketing stuff for our business, for our brand, and he wanted me to help him out with all this stuff, so I started on his logos, his identity on the the Internet, and I started cutting his hair basically because I was cutting one of our partners’ hair. I was cutting a design, Q-York, on the back of his head, and he saw that, and that was the beginning right there, and he wanted me to go ahead and start cutting Tru Warier on his head one time when he came and visited us. That was it right there, that was the beginning. So since then… that’s how it all began for him.

R: Nice. So you did the Tru Warier, and then you did another one when he was with the Kings, right?

D: Mm-hmm. Yep.

R: And another others since then, or just those ones?

D: No, it’s just those two. After that, he’d been jumping around from place to place, I think he had moved to Houston, and so whenever he was in town—because I had moved to L.A., and it was whenever he was in town that he would hit me up. That’s been the two that I cut for him, right there. I think he had found someone over in Houston who had approached him about cutting his hair. From there, you know, someone who was more local for him, and someone who was closer. So, he built a bond with that person, and instead of having to travel 2,000 miles to get a haircut, he had one right there in his backyard.

R: Nice. What do you think about the cuts that he’s had since then? He has a sweet Rockets logo cut, and then he had some cool ones this past year. What did you think about that?

D: That guy’s really talented. When I saw those cuts, I was like, at least he found someone who was good. It would be another story if he found someone wasn’t doing him justice. But definitely, whoever’s cutting his hair now has a lot of talent.

R: Good. Looks cool to me, but I don’t have the chops. So what’s the process for a haircut like that? Does Ron come to you with a design, or with an idea, or does he come and say “I want something cool, do your thing?”

D: The first time, it was up in the air. We were just sitting down brainstorming, and I thought, hey, why don’t we do Tru Warier in your head to promote the label, and he was totally for it. From there, he just left it up to me, and we basically just freestyled it. Other times, if we’re going to do something like that, they usually come with an idea, and we just build around that.

R: Cool. What about with the “Kings” cut, was there a story behind that one?

D: With the Kings, he had hit me up, and he just wanted a fade. I think he was a little that David Stern would have some problems with him promoting anything else, so he just wanted a fade. This was right after the fight with the Detroit Pistons, and he was getting heat from everyone, so he really wanted to stay a little low, and I was like, why don’t we do the Kings to show that you’re part of the team, show that you represent your team, and you’re a team player. Just to show something that was more like instead of being an individual and representing himself, just show something that represents him and his team. So we went ahead and just cut the “Kings” in the back of his head. It was fun times.

R: And since then, he’s had a Rockets logo cut, and he’s had a Lakers logo cut. So it looks like you started something.

D: Yeah, yeah. This was all inspired by Anthony Mason. I don’t know if you guys remember Anthony Mason, but he basically started all that. After Anthony Mason, everyone was everyone was like, I gotta get that, I gotta get that, we all gotta do this. It basically brought us back. It was kinda like bringing the old school back into the new school and just representing what was already out there.

R: Very cool. So the big question, and you probably get this a lot as someone who knows Ron Artest, he had a reputation for a while as a “bad boy”, after the Brawl, after that stuff. It’s not so much that way anymore, but he does come across as just as very strange human being. Really goofy, really different guy. My question about Ron Artest is, is it an act? Is he really a strange dude? Or is it a show he puts on?

D: Ron is just original. Even hanging out with him, you can tell he’s kinda off the wall. He’s just being himself. He’s a good guy. It’s definitely not an act, he’s definitely down for whatever. Ron… he’s just out there. Growing up in Queensbridge and stuff, he’s always just been a character. He’s pretty straightforward with what he wants, and I think nothing’s going to stop him in whatever he wants to do. He’s definitely changed; he’s definitely changed and gotten his act straight and that’s definitely a good thing. He’s just being himself—this is really who he is. He’s just really down-to-earth, and it’s just like when you hang out with anyone else, we all have that one friend who’s just kinda out there, and he just says whatever he wants to say. That’s Ron. That’s our Ron of the group.

R: Nice, that makes a lot of sense.

D: Yeah, it’s definitely not an act.

R: Do you think he deserved any of the flak he got after the Brawl, and for a while he was kind of the poster boy for what was wrong with the NBA. Do you think he deserved that?

D: He definitely did something wrong. When you’re in that spotlight, you have to hold yourself as a role model to anyone, and that was televised nationwide. It made a lot of news. It wasn’t good for the sport, but it had to happen for him to become who he is. He’s learned from it. I’m sure that if it happened again, he would know what to do this time. It had to happen, and he paid his penalty for whatever he did wrong, and he’s moved on and he’s become a better person because of it.

R: And no reason to dwell on that, I think that’s behind us. But to draw from another NBA “bad boy”, when people see Ron, they see his hair, they see his outspoken personality, and even the way he plays the game, 99% of the time the first person they think of is Dennis Rodman. Any idea how much connection he feels to Dennis Rodman, if he’s drawn inspiration from him, or did they just end up doing similar things by going down their own path?

D: I think Dennis Rodman probably paid some influence on him. Dennis Rodman was playing basketball when Ron was still growing up, so it’s exactly like how it is. He was penalized, the way that people looked at him for what he did. It’s the same thing with how Dennis Rodman acted. I’m sure that he influenced Ron, how he’d become that “bad boy” image for the NBA. Yeah, I’m sure it has. It happened how it happened, and if we look at where Dennis Rodman’s at right now, hopefully he’s not the same person, but if you look at where Dennis Rodman’s at, he has a lot of problems. But when we look at Ron, at least he didn’t turn out in that same direction. He found a way to fix it, and he found a solution on how to become a better person, and to not end up the same way as Dennis Rodman.

R: Well let’s talk about basketball now. You watch a lot of basketball?

D: Yeah, I watch a lot of basketball. My team is the Knicks, but, I don’t know, man.

R: That’s a shame, really.

D: Yeah, they could be doing better. Hopefully they’ll get to pick up Carmelo, or C3P0.

R: That would change the Knicks, that’s for sure. What do you think of their pickups over the summer? Stoudemire, Raymond Felton… Stoudemire’s the big name, clearly.

D: Yeah, he’s a big name. I’ve been in Cali so I’m kinda stuck out with what’s been happening locally with the Knicks, all I see is what’s on ESPN. I don’t know, they could have done a better job picking up some people. I was hoping LeBron would have been with them, but I guess he wanted to enjoy the palm trees and the beaches.

R: Guess so. What do you think about the Heat?

D: The Heat? They’ve got a lot of work to do. There’s three superstars on the team. They have a couple losses under their belt, but a lot of people were expecting them to go 82-0. There’s talent there, but they still have a lot of work to do as far as teamwork and meshing together to work together and get these W’s. But I do expect them to take the Eastern Conference.

R: You think?

D: Yeah, I think so. I think so. It’s either them or Boston. I think down the line, that the Heat are going to figure out how to get these W’s. And the Celtics are kind of an old team, so I think they might not last the 82 games. It could be possible, but I put my money on the Heat.

R: Yeah, interesting. It’s definitely way too early. They’re at 6-4 right now. I don’t think anybody called, I don’t think anybody would have predicted 6-4 right now. But I’ve gotta think you’re right, I’ve gotta think they’re going to figure that out, with all the talent they’ve got on that team.

D: Yeah, they’re just trying to figure out their roles, I think. Wade is a role player, LeBron, Bosh… these are three superstars whose teams were always on their backs. So now they’re trying to figure out, all right, let me spread some of this weight out.

R: What about the Lakers? You talk about being in L.A., are you a Lakers fan?

D: I like the Lakers. I’ve always been a Kobe fan. If I were to pick between Shaq and Kobe, I’d definitely pick Kobe. I like Shaq, and I respect him, but ever since he knocked out my player Patrick Ewing from the starting lineup in the All-Star game, I was kinda like, you know what? Yeah, Patrick’s the man.

R: So Ron took a little bit of flak last year for not fitting in with the Lakers right away, but it seemed like he made up for it at the end. How do think he’s doing with the Lakers?

D: I think he’s going to do good. It’s not as much pressure, when you have all these great players on the team, especially with a team like the Lakers. It gives him more time to relax, instead of like, “Everything relies on me, I’m one of the top two players on the team. If I don’t do good, then the team’s not gonna.” It relieves some stress off of him. It gives him more time to gather his thoughts. Having Kobe on his team, there’s no way you can go wrong with that.

R: Yeah, that’s a good start. So when you watch basketball, are you looking at hair?

D: Of course, yeah, I’m looking at hair. I try to see what kind of styles are out there, try to see what was influenced by what. After I saw Ron Artest’s haircut I starting seeing a lot more people doing crazy things, and I kinda feel like I helped a little bit of that.

R: So who’s got good hair right now? Who do you like?

D: Ron still takes it. He’s got that gold hairdo sometimes. Last time I saw him he had that goldish hair with Chinese or Japanese lettering in the back of it. He got that one, right there.

R: I’m going to ask you about somebody off the cuff, and maybe you haven’t seen him play. But have you seen Brandon Jennings with his 80′s high-top fade?

D: The flat-top?

R: Yeah, plays for the Bucks. What do think about that stuff? Turning back the clock?

D: Every time I see something like that it reminds me of like, Kid n’ Play, reminds me of like, Big Daddy Kane, all the hip-hop rappers… back in the days of New Jack City, too. I think it’s cool. They’ve got throwbacks, and everything that was in history in basically just going to come back. It’s old school, but to the new school it’s new.

R: Nice, very cool. Well Defcase, thanks for joining me. Give us a website where we can see your stuff.

D: Oh yeah, you can check out my stuff at http://www.defcase.com, you can find all the information on there. All the posts of haircuts I have, music I have, and all the designs I’ve done for other artists. I specialize in websites and graphic design, so the haircutting is just a hobby at this point. I do it for free, just to do it.

R: Sure enough. I’ll throw up the link to your site, and I’ll put some pictures as well so people know what we’re talking about, which they should probably know already. Thanks for join me, appreciate it.

D: All right Roger, thank you.

Miami's superteam hasn't been as invincible as we thought they would be this year.

After a 112-107 loss to the Boston Celtics, your 2010-11 Miami Heat are now 5-4. Barely one game over .500, or good for the 5 seed in the East. Last year, the team was 7-2 through nine games.

How are those high-profile free agents working out for you, Mr. Riley?

It’s no secret that the Heat haven’t gotten off to the start everyone expected them to. If they were to continue at this pace, they’d be on track for 45 wins, which would be two fewer than last year’s roster of Dwyane Wade and 14 scrubs. Clearly, no one expects them to struggle that much, but it certainly begs the question: what’s going on with these guys? Weren’t they supposed to be a superteam?

It’s an interesting question, and one with equally interesting answers. Let’s start by looking at the Big Three.

While defense has been the story of the Heat this year, their offense shouldn’t be overlooked. After all, when LeBron James and Chris Bosh came to Miami, it felt a little like assembling a fantasy team. We expected these guys to routinely score over 110 points a game. None of them are scoring quite as prolifically as they were last year (which shouldn’t be a surprise; they can’t all hold the ball all game), but they still manage to fill up the stat sheet. What is especially interesting, however, is how they fill up the stat sheet, and how they do it in wins as opposed to losses.

First, let’s examine how the Big Three fares in wins, and then we can compare that to losses. We’ll take a look at their spider graphs (remember spider graphs? if you don’t, read this primer first) to put them on an equal footing.

When the Heat are rolling, the Big Three form a nearly perfect hexagon, meaning they would be balanced in all aspects of their game. Wade works as the primary scorer, putting up a line of 26/6/4 per game. LeBron works as the point guard, racking up over 8 dimes a game to go with his 19 points. Chris Bosh does his best to defend the interior, but it’s telling that Wade outperforms him in every category, including the three primarily defensive ones. But even despite Bosh’s shortcomings, Miami puts up a balanced attack when they win, which is exactly what we expected of them.

But what about when they lose?

Suddenly, that nice hexagon doesn’t look so balanced anymore. Here’s what I notice about this graph as compared to the first one. Wade is no longer the lead scorer. In fact, he looks more like a point guard gambling for steals. His spider graph wouldn’t look out of place for a Golden State Warrior. (Sorry, W’s fans.) James switches from the point guard mentality and seems to revert back to his Cleveland mindset. He’s trying to be everywhere at once, and his stats go up nearly across the board – except for field goal percentage, which drops like a stone. Sound familiar, Cavs fans? When the Heat lose, LeBron puts up eye-popping numbers, but takes a ton of shots to do it. In short, he becomes a volume scorer, which takes opportunities away from other players to score.

This probably isn’t surprising any NBA scouts. Opposing game-planners are looking for ways to make LeBron dominate the game and take Wade and Bosh out of it. Defending one superstar is much, much easier than trying to defend three. (I’m being generous with the “superstar” tag here. Notice that Bosh’s already anemic numbers actually get worse when the team loses.)

So that explains how the Heat lose games. But how do their opponents win? Are there any trends across the board?

Well, of course there are. That’s why I asked the question. Doesn’t work to pose rhetorical questions you can’t answer yourself.

Since we were just mentioning Bosh’s play, we’ll start there. The four teams that have beaten the Heat this year (Celtics, Hornets, Jazz, and Celtics again) have had outstanding play from their power forwards, highlighted by Paul Millsap deciding to turn into a malevolent ball of energy and drop 46 points and 9 boards on them. Here’s a spider graph showing the average production of a power forward playing against Miami.

Yikes. Not a lot of blocks and assists, but rebounds, FG%, and points are through the roof. Numerically speaking, opposing power forwards are putting up an average line of 22/9 against Bosh. Simply put, he’s having his lunch eaten night after night for Miami. (Remember that he’s countering that line with 14/6 every night. If you’re a Heat fan, you’re probably kicking yourself for wanting Bosh over, say, Amar’e Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer right now.)

While we need to point out that this is a small sample size and that it includes the night Millsap destroyed the entire world, it’s equally fair to point out that these aren’t guys that are routinely dropping 22 points and 9 rebounds. Thus far, the Heat have given that line up to Kevin Garnett (great, but certainly past his prime), David West (a little past his prime, and certainly not Garnett-level), Paul Millsap (love Millsap, but come on), and Garnett again. Are you as excited as I am to see Bosh go up against someone like Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, or Tim Duncan?

The other key to beating the Heat is solid point guard play. Remember, Miami starts Carlos Arroyo at point guard with Mario Chalmers coming off the bench. Remembering that the four point guards Miami has lost to are Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Rajon Rondo again, take a look at their combined spider graph.

No, that’s not a misprint. Take another look at it. Take a good look.

These point guards aren’t scoring a lot, nor are they scoring particularly efficiently. What they are doing, however, is racking up assists and steals at unfathomable levels. Admittedly, two games against Rondo are enough to skew any sample size, but in these four games, the Heat have given up 17, 19, 14, and 16 assists to opposing point guards. Assuming none of those assisted makes were threes, that’s 34, 38, 28, and 32 points they’re giving up, and when you combine that to the 12 points a game these guys are scoring on their own, it’s not hard to see why the Heat are losing.

So for all the fanfare we heard about the Heat and how invincible they were going to be this year, they look downright beatable. All you need is a solid point guard and power forward. Now that you have those, just convince LeBron to take over the game and start chucking up those ill-advised shots he took for seven years in Cleveland.

I know, I know. It’s nowhere as easy as I’m making it sound. But considering there are three probable playoff teams in the East with a great point guard and big man combo (Boston, Chicago, and Orlando), we might want to rethink Miami’s chances of getting to the Finals this year. At this rate, they might not even make the second round.

Last day to enter to win a bunch of free stuff from AXE! The giveaway is here: http://howtowatchsports.com/2010/11/the-best-and-worst-hair-in-the-nba-plus-axe-giveaway/. Ends today!

I understand that no one cares about stories related to fantasy sports. It’s like looking at photos: if you aren’t in them, who cares? I get it—they’re boring, and no one will give a rip if you go on-and-on about how frustrating it is that you wasted your first overall pick on an Amar’e Stoudemire that is currently averaging 5 turnovers a game (not that I did this or anything). Anyway, given that slightly disturbing and drawn-out comparison, I’d like you to hear me out on a quick fantasy story.

You see, the past two years I was dumb enough to draft Kevin Love on to my fantasy basketball team, and every night I’d watch in frustration as he’d inexplicably hit the bench for quarters at a time. It would invariably happen without clear reason—in close games, in blowouts, on road trips, during home stands, on the second night of back-to-backs—he would sit. Didn’t matter if he hadn’t committed a foul yet or was having his way on the offensive end; he’d always get the bench. Needless to say, my monitor was cussed out a lot.

My frustration seems to finally have found company, as the rest of the NBA world is now up in arms, trying to figure this nuttiness out. Why is he seeing so few minutes? What’s wrong with Kevin Love? Let’s investigate.

We should begin with a look at his first two years in the league. Two years ago, in his rookie campaign, he averaged 11 points and 9 rebounds in just 25 minutes of work. Last year he put up a 14 point and 11 rebound line in just over 28 minutes a contest. And while both of these lines, despite his limited burn, are impressive in their own right, it’s even more astonishing once you realize that during a large portion of those seasons Love laced up next to the high-volume shooter Al Jefferson.

The spark-noted version: in around half a game, next to another sterling big man, on an absolutely terrible team, Kevin Love averaged a double-double. Crazy.

The reason Love excels is because he is a dynamic offensive player. Love can shoot the long ball well, and last year he made a third of his threes. This mark isn’t otherworldly, but you need to remember that given his limited minutes and the duties of being a big (fighting for position on the block, rebounding, and the like) prevent him from settling into a really good rhythm. Regardless, his ability to spread the floor and open up driving lanes with his range is incredibly valuable.

He’s also a fantastic passer. Love reminds me of Pau Gasol because he is so excellent at moving the rock around. The most impressive aspect of his passing is his outlet pass, a skill that shouldn’t be overlooked since a good outlet can ignite easy transition opportunities (especially beneficial for the T-Wolves, given the fact that they will likely have 15 point guards, give or take, on the court at any time). In the half-court set his passing is just as valuable. The Timberwolves run the triangle offense, a system that thrives off of a big man hitting cutters sneaking baseline. Love can do that.

However, the most impressive aspect of his offensive game, bar none, is his offensive rebounding ability. Last year, he averaged 3.8 offensive rebounds a game. This was good enough for second in the league behind Zach Randolph (4.1 offensive rebounds a game). But here’s the rub: Randolph played nearly 10 more minutes a game than Love. If we control for minutes played (we’ll use per 48 minutes), Love jumps off the page. Love’s offensive rebounding per 48 clip last year was 6.3. Randolph’s as a comparison: 5.2. Moreover, guys who we consider rebounding beasts—Dwight Howard (4.8 offensive rebounds per 48), Pau Gasol (4.9 per 48), and Joakim Noah (5.4 per 48)—get destroyed by Kevin Love on that end. Second chance opportunities are huge for any basketball team, and Love provided that in bunches for his Timberwolves when given the chance.

Ok, so his benching can’t be because of his offensive prowess. What about defense?

Perhaps the flaw in Love’s game is his lack of quickness. At UCLA, he garnered the nickname Kevin “Lovehandles,” because he was, um, just a bit round in the mid-section (I heard this from a buddy that graduated recently from UCLA). Having that donut around his waist means other power forwards can take him off the dribble and that his help defense might be a bit slow.

There’s also the whole attitude thing. Last year, Love publicly criticized Timberwolves management for his lack of playing time, earning a reputation for being moody. At the time, people knocked him for speaking out and undermining his coach. You settle these things behind closed doors, the critics said.

But can you really blame him? If I was the best player on an NBA team (if only…) and didn’t get enough minutes, I’d be pissed too.

Reports coming out of Minnesota indicate that this might still be the case; Love might have attitude problems, and Kurt Rambis, a coach who values team players and likes riding the hot hand (the one time a year that happens in Minnesota), won’t tolerate.

So that must be it, then. When the T’wolves need a defensive stop, Rambis goes to someone who can move his feet and won’t do it with attitude. This is where it fails to make sense, however. If you look at the T’wolves roster, outside of Love, defensive duties at the power forward and center positions fall to Anthony Tolliver, Darko Milicic, Michael Beasley, and Wayne Ellington. Uh… yeah. These guys may have better defensive skill sets, but none come close to Love’s rebounding and outside shooting touch.

The fault here, then, isn’t with Love. It falls squarely on the shoulders of head coach Kurt Rambis. Rambis is going deep, deep, deep into his bench, giving 9 guys on the team large minutes (including guys that do this). This tactic may work for deep teams like the Los Angeles Lakers or the Boston Celtics. But for the Timberwolves? Wayne Ellington shouldn’t be seeing 25 minutes a game, especially when a guy like Kevin Love is available.

The Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the league (they rank at the bottom of nearly every metric), and benching your best player, a player that is exceptional offensively, because the head coach has some insane notion of how he wants to run a team is ridiculous. Proving points and blindly sticking to a system doesn’t win games. Having your best guys out on the court, working and going after it does.

What can we learn from all this? First, nothing is wrong with Kevin Love. Second, unless you are a masochist, don’t waste an early fantasy pick on the big guy.

But who cares? We want to talk about hair.

While most NBA players favor some variant of the “cut it real short” school, there are those certain few that really go out of their way to entertain and give us something worth talking about. So think of this article as a temporary break from learning how to watch sports. This is more about how to watch hair.

In breaking down the NBA’s most exciting hair styles, we turned to Men’s Celebrity Hair Stylist and Grooming Expert for AXE Hair, Amy Komorowski, who gives us the low-down on the best looks in the league – and a couple that need a little work.

We start with – who else? – Lakers swingman Ron Artest, who has done his best over the years to replace the void left by Dennis Rodman. This photo is from last season, but it represents the spectacular potential of Ron-Ron’s hair at any given moment.

Amy K. says: “Clearly this is a man who takes risks with his hairstyles, it really works for him. Whether it’s with dye, symbols or words etched into the side of his hair, Ron definitely sends a message. One thing these styles have in common is the attention to detail in both the cut and the maintenance of his facial hair. It’s not a style that a buttoned-up business man should sport, but on the basketball court it’s fun and sets him apart.”

We say: Can’t argue with that. I’d love to see someone with “defense” carved into their hair in several languages strolling into a business meeting. As an aside, you might be interested in brushing up on the evolution of Artest’s hair from this fantastic infographic.

Next on the docket is Brandon Jennings, a relative newcomer. Jennings is currently sporting the “Old Reliable” style that most other players wear, but last year he rocked the high-top fade, Scottie Pippen-style.

Amy K. says: “Jennings keeps it old-school with his high-top fades and mohawks. NBA hair has gotten a bit more experimental this year with guys playing with volume, heights and color. Jennings is definitely one who delivers.”

We say: Heck yeah, Jennings delivers. His ever-changing ‘do makes you hearken back to the days when shorts were short and basketball shoes didn’t have anything shiny on them. The added bonus is that he plays for the Bucks, so there’s nothing to distract from Jennings’s style—what, were you tuning in to see Andrew Bogut?

NBA hair isn’t all about finding the craziest look, though. Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki has sported his long, flowing tresses for years. It’s long and light enough now that you could almost get away with calling him Rapunzel. (Try it sometime. I’m sure he’d love it.)

Amy K. says: “Dirk has an amazing head of wavy hair that is on trend with men letting their locks grow. My only suggestion is to have it trimmed regularly and add texture with some layering and a light product to help achieve the natural look, like AXE Understated Look Cream. With longer hair it’s important to keep the facial hair trimmed or clean-shaven so the overall look is kempt and effortlessly groomed.”

We say: Nope. Sorry. Can’t do it. It seems that the trick to making your hair look “effortlessly groomed” is to spend way, way too much time on it. Our advice to Dirk? Cut it off and spend the time on, I don’t know, winning playoff games. Ziiing!

Dirk might be one of the few guys in the NBA with long hair who doesn’t wear braids. Most guys opt for the Iverson/Anthony look (you know, before they both shaved them off). The poster child for that style in the league right now has to be Gerald Wallace.

Amy K. says: “There’s a hair evolution going on in the NBA and the style that players choose can make a statement about their performance on the court. It’s a nice change of pace when guys let their hair breathe or run wild, but this makes it especially important to keep your facial hair groomed and close-shaven compliments.”

We say: I’m not sure there’s a better way to describe Crash or his hair than the phrase “run wild”. Nice.

He’s not the only braider in the NBA, though. You can’t forget about Ronny Turiaf, most recently of the Knicks. Everyone’s third or fourth-favorite Frenchman sports a look that seems to say, “If the guy who plays the GEICO Caveman ever needs a day off, give me a call.”

Amy K. says: “Turiaf’s braided hair is a great look for his face and also a low-maintenance, classic style. To maintain the braids, Turiaf should have them done regularly so they lay flat and smooth, and use a strong hold product like AXE Smooth & Sophisticated Look Shine Pomade to keep frizz at bay and add a little shine. A good trim of his goatee and beard would complete the look.”

We say: I can’t imagine what Turiaf’s face would look like without the beard, but then, I’m not the one who gets paid to evaluate style. Bust out the razors, Ronny.

Of course, no discussion of NBA hair would be complete without everyone’s favorite Sideshow Bob twins, Anderson Varejao and Robin Lopez.

Amy K. says: “Many players have been going against the clean-cut look with longer, grown-out hair, which can convey a sense of rebellion. It’s great for guys to show personality through their hairstyle, but if the hair takes over the entire face, a trim may be in order. Also, if guys keep it natural or curly, it’s especially important to maintain a good shape. Historically, long hair has signified strength and warrior-like status, but Lopez’s wild locks are a bit out of control. With his great face and well-proportioned features, completely buzzing off his hair would be a welcomed new look.”

We say: Wow. There’s no denying that a clean-shaven Lopez would be able to see the court better, but he probably uses that extra five pounds of weight to bang around down low. If Lopez does shave it off, he should at least make it an event and broadcast it live or something.

Finally, we include the NBA’s favorite non-Amar’e Stoudemire Jew, Omri Casspi. His style isn’t as flashy or out there as these other guys, but it’s worth a look.

Amy K. says: “Casspi’s hairstyle, the top a bit longer than the sides and back, is a great way that guys can play with some length without growing out the rest of their hair. By growing out just the top, Omri is able to experiment with slicking it back, parting it to the side or spiking it up.”

We say: Omri is definitely man-crush material, especially as his game continues to flourish. But let’s be honest—compared to the rest of the list, Omri’s male-model stylings are downright timid. Step it up, man. Step it up.

Now the giveaway! We got some expert ideas and tips from Amy K. And we definitely have our faves. But we’re interested in what you have to say. Who’s got the sweetest hair in the NBA? Or who do you think would benefit from a major overhaul? It doesn’t have to be the guys we’ve listed here, either. (We asked Amy about Joakim Noah and Luis Scola. She didn’t even give us a response.) Put your answer in the comments below.

The response we like best will win exciting, AXE-themed prizes, too, so get excited. AXE has generously offered a complete line of their products to give away to the winner, so you too, can look just like Dirk Nowitzki or Ronny Turiaf (or whoever you want to look like). Serious stuff.

Get your comment in by Friday, November 12th, and we’ll get in touch with the winner over the weekend (make sure to use an email address that you check, or you won’t hear from us). To be eligible to win, you’ll also need to become a fan of HTWS on Facebook. Do so by clicking the button here (the one right here is the important one, though the one further down is good too):

So get cracking, click that button, and let us know what you think. We’re excited to hear your ideas – and we’re sure Robin Lopez is, too.

Comments are moderated, so it may take a while for your comment to appear. Don’t worry about it. Just make sure you hit the Like button above, or you’ll get skipped over. And mad props to the folks at AXE for making this giveaway happen!

Edit: We brought in former HTWS contributor Scott Zais as a guest judge, and he selected JEFF WURTZ as our winner! Congratulations Jeff! Scroll down to see his comment, including a link to a sweet mullet picture, below.

One of the guys in the foreground plays for a top-5 team. Guess which one?

Last year, I suggested here that one way to determine a team’s quality would be to see how many top 10 players at each position it has. Championship contenders usually have at least three, fringe candidates have two or one, and the Minnesota Timberwolves have none. (Well, one. Free Kevin Love.) It’s a fun idea, and it usually ends up predicting a team’s ability fairly well. Of course, there’s some debate as to how you can determine which ten players are the best at their position, and there’s a big difference between having the 10^th best center (Al Jefferson, say) versus having the best (Dwight Howard) on your team.

So why don’t we take it a step further this year? What if we ranked all 30 starters at each position and figured out which team has the best starters, on average?

Ranking all 30 starters at each position is bound to create even more controversy and debate than just the top ten would, but fortunately, we have the rankings created this summer by Yahoo!’s excellent Kelly Dwyer. (You can see all of his lists, three for each position, at these fifteen links.) He just ranks the top 30 players at each position, however, which means some teams have two players in one list. If a team doesn’t have a top-30 player at a given position, I just assigned them a score of 30. (Spoiler alert: Minnesota is going to see a lot of 30s.)

First, let’s take a look at how all 30 teams did, and then we can break it down from there.

Interesting stuff. I’m guessing fans of Miami aren’t going to be pleased with their #9 showing, especially considering it’s only just ahead of #11 New Jersey. You know, the New Jersey that managed just 12 wins last year. Clearly, this doesn’t take into account how bench players help the team, nor does it account for chemistry, but it does give us some fun things to talk about.

Like the top 5 teams, for instance. I’m willing to bet that those aren’t the five championship contenders everyone was talking about before the season started. I’m a big Blazers fan, but even a homer like me wouldn’t have the nerve to declare Portland the second-best team in the league this year behind Boston. So let’s break down those five teams and see why they’re rated so highly.

Two things jump out at me here. First, Boston and Portland are ranked #1 and #2 mostly because neither of them has a player outside the top 30. That certainly doesn’t hurt. What’s even more interesting is that Portland only has one top-ten player in the lineup, compared to at least three for every other team. (Four for Chicago. Are they really that good?) So unlike the rest of the teams here that have great players but at least one weak point in the starting lineup (Derek Fisher, I’m looking at you here), Portland has above average players at every position, just no overpowering stars outside of Brandon Roy. Think of them as Team Lake Wobegon.

Clearly, this isn’t a foolproof way to look at the league. I’ve seen the Miami Heat play games, and I can tell you that there’s no way that they’re only the ninth-best team in the NBA. But this whole offseason, we were talking about the fact that while they have three of the best players in the league at their positions, they’re also starting Carlos Arroyo and Joel Anthony. That has to be taken into account somewhere. And yet they’re destroying the world around them with the Big Three, so maybe it doesn’t matter. Sometimes, it’s hard to tell.

What this does for us, though, is it gives us a rough idea of which teams are strong across the board rather than top-heavy. That filters out teams like New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Phoenix that have one spectacular player and a lot of role players. (It would have done the same for Miami and Cleveland last year, which may have been worth thinking about as the playoffs rolled around.) Like any stats-based ranking system, you have to take it with a huge grain of salt, but it’s still instructive.

Moral of the story? Don’t write off the Blazers, Bulls, or Spurs this year, and maybe think twice before penciling the Heat in for 70 wins.

These towering titans will fight for the Southwest crown this year.

The 2010-11 NBA season is just around the corner, and here at HTWS, we couldn’t be happier. We’ll be taking a look at each division and how we think it’s all going to shake out. We’ll talk about offseason moves, potential breakout players, and our expected order of finish, from the bottom to the top. We’ll take it a division at a time so we won’t have to bog you down with 30 separate articles (and partially so we don’t go crazy writing them).

Next up: the Southwest Division.

While normally an extremely formidable division, last year the Southwest really fell off in terms of producing playoff caliber teams. Only two teams (the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks) made it the postseason, and neither had the moxie to make it past the Conference Semifinals. It’s not hard to see why this division is slipping; the bottom consists of a handful of rebuilding franchises while the top boasts aging, veteran units. In a busy off-season, has any of this changed? Read on to find out.

New Orleans Hornets

2010 Record: 37-45

Key Losses: Darren Collison, Darius Songalia, James Posey, Julian Wright, Morris Peterson

Key Additions: DJ Mbenga, Jannero Pargo, Trevor Ariza, Marco Belinelli

Starters: C. Paul (PG), M. Belinelli (SG), T. Ariza (SG), D. West (PF), E. Okafor (C)

I feel bad for Chris Paul.

It’s almost as if the New Orleans Hornets want him to go New York. I understand that surrounding a superstar with talent isn’t easy, but if the best pick-up you can manage in a busy off-season is Trevor Ariza, you have problems.

At face value, it looks as if the Hornets addressed Paul’s concerns. They sent Darren Collison to Indiana (“You’re our man, Chris!”), disposed of James Posey and Morris Peterson (“Look! We’re going young!), and grabbed an extra three-point threat in Marco Belinelli (“Another Peja!”). Further, new Head Coach Monty Williams has been preaching team defense this off-season, which is certainly wise. The rational makes sense—defensive stops will lead to open court opportunities, and open court opportunities will allow Paul to wreak havoc. None of these are terrible moves; I’ll give them that.

But come on. Does anyone really think this team will hound the ball like the Boston Celtics or Charlotte Bobcats? Look at that roster. Defensive guys are nigh impossible to come by. Outside of CP3 and Ariza, there’s David West, but after West the talent drops off pretty significantly. Emeka Okafor isn’t terrible at protecting the paint, but the truth is he’s an undersized center that gets abused all too often (no one can power lay-up better, though). Other pieces, like Marcus Thorton and Peja Stojakovic, don’t exactly inspire hope either.

The Hornets might just be the new Cleveland Cavaliers—a team containing one transcendent star stuck in a sea of middling talent. This team has too many holes and too many missing pieces. Another frustrating season lies ahead for New Orleans.

Projected Record: 35-47

4. Houston Rockets

2010 Record: 42-40

Key Losses: Trevor Ariza

Key Additions: Brad Miller, Courtney Lee

Starters: A. Brooks (PG), K. Martin (SG), S. Battier (SF), L. Scola (PF), Y. Ming (C)

Houston, Houston, Houston. What are we going to do with you? Full disclosure: I went back and forth on where to place these guys. There are just so many questions about this team that figuring out where these guys stand in the pecking order of the Southwest is rather tough.

The largest question (pun!) is Yao Ming’s health. With a healthy Yao, the Houston Rockets have one of the best centers in the game and can put together a scary team built on interior size and wing quickness. As a skilled big, Yao is nonpareil. But his surgically reconstructed foot has yet to be tested, and the 7’6” giant hasn’t played basketball at NBA speed for over a year. He’s going to need at least the first quarter of the season to get his legs back before he can start making an impact.

Grabbing Brad Miller to shore up these concerns shouldn’t calm Rockets fans’ nerves. Miller’s helter-skelter high post drives, jump shots and passes are unique and valuable, but he’s a sieve defensively and really shouldn’t be considered a replacement for Yao.

Another big question mark is that Houston backcourt. There is nothing wrong with Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin, but both guys are clearly shot-happy, second-tier talents.

Perhaps the one thing we do know for sure is that power forward Luis Scola will continue to quietly rock the high post. Coming off a 17 and 9 season, the dude went into domination mode in Turkey this summer. Scola continues to impress with deft footwork and a soft touch. He is, without a doubt, a bright spot on this team.

There’s good talent and certainly some intriguing plot lines here, but there are still too many questions surrounding the Rockets. I say they flirt with .500 all season.

Projected Record: 41-41

3. Memphis Grizzlies

2010 Record: 40-42

Key Losses: Dominque Jones

Key Additions: Acie Law, Tony Allen, Xavier Henry

Starters: M. Conley (PG), O.J. Mayo (SG), R. Gay (SF), Z. Randolph (PF), M. Gasol (C)

The Memphis Grizzlies somehow managed to both over and underachieve last season. For stretches they were absolutely fantastic, at one point stringing together an 11 game home winning streak while hanging with the elite squads in the league. At other times they were the exact opposite, starting the season 1-8 and going 2-9 in their last 11 games.

So which team is the real team, then? It’s hard to say, but here are some things we do know for sure.

Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo are both great (okay fine; how about good?) guards. They are potent on the offensive end, and if Mayo stopped deferring so often he could easily average 20 a game. Moreover, Memphis may quietly boast the best front court in the entire league. Zach Randolph, once the poster child for off-court misconduct, seems to have finally gotten it together. And Marc Gasol’s development into a defensive-minded rim-protector has almost cleared GM Chris Wallace of his crimes for shipping Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers (note the word choice: almost. You still got fleeced, man).

The one hiccup with that starting five is Rudy Gay’s new contract. Sure, Rudy can put the ball in the hoop (an important part of the game, I’m told), but a 5-year, $82 million contract extension for a guy who can’t really rebound or defend is absolutely ridiculous.

The additions of Tony Allen and Acie Law, as well as the drafting of Xavier Henry out of Kansas will add some talent coming off the bench, sure, and watching Hasheem Thabeet develop will certainly be interesting. But here’s the rub: this team has to compete in the West. In a vacuum, the Grizzlies look really good. But when they are paired up against squads like the Mavericks, Blazers, or Lakers? My money won’t be on the guys from Memphis.

I forecast a season very similar to last year; that is, stretches of brilliance marred by frustrating and perplexing losses. They’ll be on the outside looking in, again.

Projected Record: 43-39

2. San Antonio Spurs

2010 Record: 50-32

Key Losses: Roger Mason Jr.

Key Additions: Tiago Splitter, Bobby Simmons

Starters: T. Parker (PG), M. Ginobli (SG), R. Jefferson (SF), T. Duncan (PF), T. Splitter (C)

Of late, a San Antonio Spurs resurgence has been a trendy pick among analyst-types. The experts cite their unparalleled veteran savvy, the workman Spurs culture, and their superb drafting ability as factors that will keep San Antonio in the title hunt.

I’m not buying it. At some point, this gravy train is going to end. And that end starts this year. I predict that this season the once rock-solid lineup will really start to show its age. Tim Duncan and what’s left of his knees should end up seeing incredibly limited action this year in an effort to save his body for the playoffs. Manu Ginobli, while not as old as the Big Fundamental, will no doubt shatter some part of his body. And the youngest part of the trinity, Tony Parker, is something I like to call a “delicate snowflake.” Sneeze on him and he’s sitting out the next road trip.

The fate of the team really comes and goes with those guys. You can talk excitedly about Brazilian phenom Tiago Splitter alleviating Duncan’s workload, laud DeJuan “No ACL” Blair’s work ethic, or pray that Richard Jefferson wakes up one day and remembers how to dribble again, but those guys are periphery players right now.

I’m not hating on this team, because under Greg Popovich’s tutelage, this team rocked the league for a large chunk of the 2000s. You have to give these guys respect as fiery competitors. But let’s be real—their time in the spotlight is about done. With an array of young talent rising in the West, the Spurs will finally start to fade, even if it’s just a bit.

Projected Record: 48-34

1. Dallas Mavericks

2010 Record: 54-28

Key Losses: Eric Dampier, Eduardo Najera

Key Additions: Tyson Chandler, Brian Cardinal, Dominque Jones

Starters: J. Kidd (PG), C. Butler (SG), S. Marion (SF), D. Nowitzki (PF), B. Haywood (C)

It’s tough being a Dallas Mavericks fan. Every year, this team looks poised to run the rest of the league out of town. They go two deep at every position (three deep in places), are well-coached, and have one of the greatest power forwards of all time. Not to mention, that loaded roster is super diverse. Veterans, young guns, defensive specialists, and athletic wingmen can all be found here. They can successfully match up with nearly any team.

But here’s why it’s tough rooting for Dallas: for all their talent, all their skill, they don’t have what it takes to get past the Conference Finals. Why? How are they not winning 70 games every year?

For one, this team looks like a patchwork of talent. Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are the rocks, sure, but everything else feels thrown together. Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Brendan Haywood, and Tyson Chandler weren’t on the roster two years ago. The rest of the league would kill for talent like that, yes, but they’ve been thrown together without regard for chemistry or complimentary playing styles. They are a team of great individual talent, something that alone simply does not fly come playoff time (just ask last years Atlanta Hawks team).

Secondly, this team has a massive inferiority complex looming over them. I have no facts to back it up, but ever since that absolutely crushing Finals loss to the Heat in 2006 (and then losing to the eighth seeded Warriors a year later), this team has lacked that extra something to put them over the top. It’s almost as if they know they’re not going to make to June. Confidence is a huge part of basketball, as anyone who’s played the game will tell you, and the Mavericks simply lack the appropriate mindset.

Great individual talent will get you a long way in the regular season, which will make this campaign just like so many others. A second seed in the West is something totally reasonable here. Just don’t be surprised when they lose in 6 games to the seventh seed, whoever that ends up being.

Projected Record: 58-24