Predicting the NBA’s 2011 East All-Stars

Three of these four players will make the All-Star Game. Guess who's getting left out?

When All-Star voting totals were released last week, there weren’t any real surprises with the leading vote-getters. Kobe Bryant led all players in votes, and mainstays like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Paul all had a starting spot. And even though he’s only played in five games this year, Yao Ming is your starting center for the West squad, fueled by millions of crazed, partisan Chinese basketball fans.

The real question, though, is who will earn the seven reserve spots on each team. The coaches for each side (likely San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich and Boston’s Doc Rivers, though Erik Spoelstra could make a run at it) get to choose two guards, two forwards, and one center as reserves, with two more picks being at their discretion. (Injured players are replaced by commissioner David Stern.) While we still have over a month until the game will be played, we’re far enough into the season that we have a pretty good idea who will make it.

Earlier this week we looked at the likely reserves for the West team, which was no small feat. The West isn’t struggling for elite players, and it was a challenge to pare the contenders down to just seven players. However, we find just the opposite problem for the East. Choosing five starters isn’t especially difficult, and the voting totals reflect exactly that. Your five starters in the East are Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade at guard, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett at forward, and Dwight Howard at center. No real surprises there.

In determining who deserves the seven reserve spots, we first need to figure out the likely candidates at each position. Let’s start with the guards.

Two of those names shouldn’t surprise you as potential All-Stars, but Raymond Felton might make you look twice if you haven’t seen the Knicks play yet this year. While most of the credit for New York’s rebirth justly goes to Amare Stoudemire (who will get some love later in this article), Felton has quietly been playing the best basketball of his career. Rather than Stoudemire struggling without Steve Nash, we might actually be seeing Stoudemire turning an average (at best) point guard into an elite player.

Joe Johnson has been one of the league’s best shooting guards for years, but his sub-par numbers and prolonged injuries mean he’s unlikely to make the team this year. Derrick Rose, of course, is on the short list for MVP this year. He’s a shoo-in. If I’m picking the teams, I’d go with Rose and Felton here. If you disagree with my choice of Felton, I’d love to hear who else you have in mind at guard. This year’s crop in the East is pretty slim.

Next we take a look at forwards, which are a bit deeper than guards in this conference, but not by much. Take a look at what the conference has to offer in the way of small forwards:

Other than James, these two are the best small forwards in the conference. Granger made the All-Star Game last year, but he’s regressed a bit this year, despite the Pacers’ increased win total. Pierce, meanwhile, has been as fantastic as ever. Even though his graph is a bit smaller than Granger’s, I’d be stunned if he didn’t earn a spot this year. Coaches tend to favor winning teams with their spots, and they tend to be heavily swayed by past All-Star appearances. Granger has one appearance; Pierce has eight. I have to think he’s going to make it nine this year.

Next, we take a look at the power forward situation in the East, where thankfully, we at least have three worthy contenders.

As mentioned earlier, Stoudemire is destroying all comers in New York, effectively putting to bed the idea that he was only as good as Steve Nash made him. He’s easily the best of this bunch, and possibly playing the best at his position in the league. Amare is a lock to get a spot. (In fact, his vote total is virtually identical to Garnett’s, so he may even get a starting spot on the team.)

As a member of the Big Three in Miami, you’d expect Bosh to get a spot, but the fact of the matter is that he’s hardly been playing like an All-Star this year. (We covered Bosh’s struggles earlier in the year when we took a look at why the Heat got off to such a poor start.) Certainly he’s no slouch, but his low rebound and block totals show that he hasn’t made as big of an impact on defense as Miami would have liked.

Instead of Bosh, what about Atlanta’s Josh Smith on the All-Star Team? It was a travesty that he was left off the team last year, and he’s responded by playing even better this year. He dwarfs Bosh on the bottom half of the graph, suggesting that he’s playing lights-out defense. I expect to see J-Smoove  joining Amare on the team this year.

Finally, let’s consider the center situation. Howard is head and shoulders above the rest, but there are some solid contenders to keep in mind.

Roy Hibbert has been having a breakout season for Indiana this year, and is the major reason they’re in contention for a playoff spot this year. I’d love to see Hibbert get an All-Star spot this year, but his graph suggests that maybe he’s not quite as dominant a player as others at his position have been. You know, like Andrew Bogut. Bogut was another player inexplicably left off the team last year, and he’s responded by becoming the league’s blocking leader. He’s been solid on offense too, so it’s not like we’re struggling to come up with a decent player here.

And then there’s Al Horford, who has turned into one of the league’s best centers this year. None of his numbers leap off the page like Bogut’s do, but he has an impressive all-around game. Together with Smith, he’s part of the league’s highest-scoring frontcourt this year. (No joke. Atlanta’s a much more impressive team than most of us realize.) I think Horford will snap up the reserve center spot here, while Bogut will have to pick up one of the remaining two spots.

So that gives us the following roster for the East All-Star Team:

PG: Rondo, Rose, Felton
SG: Wade
SF: James, Pierce
PF: Garnett, Stoudemire, Smith
C: Howard, Horford, Bogut

Maybe it’s not as potent offensively as the West team, but that’s a lockdown defensive team, which should make for an interesting matchup this February.

You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme, or tell him that Chris Bosh clearly deserves an All-Star selection in the comments section below.