Don't know who Jaime Garcia is yet? Don't worry, you will.
Rookie of the year awards are always difficult to project. Voters have very different ideas about what makes a player a candidate for the award. Do you vote for the player who played the best, even if they didn’t play very much, or do you vote for a player who was consistently good (if not great) over a full season?
In the National League, that’s the conundrum we find ourselves in. There are three deserving candidates, one of which played outstanding ball for one month and two of which played great ball for five months. So who gets the vote?
Let’s break it down one player at a time. First, let’s start with the player who played outstanding ball, even if just for one month: San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey. Take a look at these numbers:
| BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | .259 | .289 | .341 | .630 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| July | .417 | .466 | .699 | 1.165 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 13 |
| August | .274 | .324 | .421 | .745 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 15 |
| Total | .329 | .372 | .505 | .877 | 10 | 49 | 18 | 40 |
(This chart leaves out the month of May, when he only had 12 plate appearances.)
A batting average of .329, even if only over three months, has to catch your eye, but what really pops out at me is the .417 batting average and the incredible 1.165 OPS in July. Posey took one month to acclimate to the majors playing outfield for the Giants, but when he made the switch to catcher in July, he absolutely tore apart the league. Impressive, except that he took a nosedive in August, falling back to a line of .274/.324/.421. Not bad, clearly, but not especially remarkable, either.
So I got to wondering – what would Posey’s stats look like if we ignored that scorching hot month of July? Wouldn’t that give us a better idea of what kind of player we’re dealing with? Here’s what I found:
| BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .267 | .309 | .394 | .703 | 3 | 25 | 9 | 27 |
Suddenly, those numbers aren’t quite as impressive. Certainly there’s a lot to be excited about with Buster Posey. As a die-hard Rockies fan, I look forward to hating him for years to come. But I’m just not convinced that anyone deserves a Rookie of the Year award for just one outstanding month of ball. In my mind, there’s already an award for that – Player of the Month.
(Oh my goodness! You mean he already won that award in July? Gasp! Shock! )
So as impressive as Posey is, let’s move on to our next candidate: RF Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves. Feast your eyes on these numbers:
| BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | BB | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | .240 | .360 | .520 | .880 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 26 |
| May | .337 | .453 | .628 | 1.081 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 10 |
| June | .181 | .287 | .245 | .532 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 32 |
| July | .356 | .457 | .458 | .915 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 12 |
| August | .275 | .379 | .513 | .892 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 19 |
| Total | .272 | .382 | .467 | .849 | 15 | 58 | 64 | 99 |
At first glance, Heyward’s numbers are pretty similar to Posey’s, but with one major exception: instead of having one tremendous month, Heyward had four solid months and one terrible one. After struggling through most of June, Heyward landed on the DL with a strained ligament in his thumb. Once he came back, he resumed his assault on the NL East, helping the Braves cruise to the division lead.
So let’s do the same thing we did with Buster Posey. How would Heyward’s numbers look if we just removed that one terrible month? Wouldn’t that be more indicative of his talent?
| BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.300 | 0.413 | 0.537 | 0.950 | 14 | 51 | 51 | 67 |
And just like that, we’ve got a pretty impressive player on our hands. That OBP of .413 is especially impressive to me (getting on base 41% of the time? Yikes!), but a batting average of .300 certainly isn’t anything to sneeze at. A quick look at some advanced stats show us that Heyward has an UZR of 8.8, meaning he allows nearly 9 runs fewer than a replacement-level player (for a bit more on UZR, take a look here), and a WAR (wins over replacement) of 3.5. That means he personally was good for an extra 3.5 wins for the Braves, who, considering they lead the Phillies by just two games, have to be pretty thankful.
And yet, somehow, he’s not my pick for Rookie of the Year. Call me crazy, but I think I know someone who has made a bigger impact this season for his team – Cardinals starting pitcher Jaime Garcia. Take a look at the stats he’s put together:
| IP | ER | ERA | HR | BB | K | K/BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 26.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 1.89 |
| May | 35.1 | 6 | 1.53 | 1 | 18 | 34 | 1.89 |
| June | 26.0 | 13 | 4.50 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 1.90 |
| July | 28.2 | 8 | 2.51 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 2.67 |
| August | 30.2 | 8 | 2.35 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 2.00 |
| Total | 146.2 | 38 | 2.33 | 7 | 58 | 118 | 2.03 |
I know hitting stats are sexier than pitching, but still… yikes. During the months when Ubaldo Jimenez was posting a sub-1.00 ERA, Gardia wasn’t too far behind. That 4.50 ERA in June took some of the bloom off the rose, but all Garcia has done this year is quietly rack up win after win as the fourth arm in the rotation.
That’s right. Fourth. There are 20 clubs that would love to have a guy like Garcia anchoring their rotation, but he gets to pitch behind Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright (who we’ll hear more about on Wednesday). And all this as a rookie.
The 12-6 record probably scares a few people off from considering him, but think about this for a second: this season, he’s only had two losses by more than just one run. When the Cardinals lose, it’s certainly not because Garcia let them down.
So it’s a tight race. Personally, I expect Heyward to win the award because he hits a lot of home runs and has been in the spotlight since April. But that doesn’t mean I think he’s the better player.
Then again, maybe I’m just a sucker for pitching.
You can follow Sam on Twitter at @TheRealSamOrme.
Well, I think Heyward’s stats would have been even more impressive if he can hit third or down in the order rather than second. People may argue that McCann and Chipper provided him protection but the truth is that the Braves line-up is just simply average at best and hitting in it any where would not have much of protection.
I think Heyward will post even crazier number in September because of the way he has been swinging lately. Young players deal with injury a bit slower than older players. It took him one full month to get his power stroke back. I am expecting a 300/420/1000 line by the year end.
I don’t think anyone can concieve how hord it is to play catcher as a rookie and bat .330
To me Buster is an obvious choice…no brainer.
of course.. he is the best.. no one else deserves it but him
How is Heywards Aug. Numbers better than Poseys?
cuz heyward is a beast and way better than posey. get with it and stop trying to dream posey winning the rookie of the year.
Jason Heyward might be a beast…But my boy Buster Posey is a GIANT.
BUSTER POSEY ROOKIE OF THE YEAR… all you haters back up.
Jaime Garcia is hands down the best rookie in baseball. The season he’s put together as a pitcher THE ENTIRE YEAR hasn’t been matched by a rookie in the last 25 years. 80% of his starts he’s surrendered 2 earned runs or less. The only pitcher better in that category in all of major league baseball is Matt Latos. His 2.35 ERA is the lowest of any rookie who qualified for the league ERA title since John Matlack in 1972. You don’t have to subtract a month of his season to justify his stats like you have with Posey and Heyward, but if you did take away his June stats, Garcia would have a 1.91 ERA!!! Posey and Heyward have had great seasons FOR A ROOKIE. Garcia has just had a great season, period. Hands down the best rookie season of 2010.
Orme’s article does not “subract a month to justify” Posey’s stats, he does just the opposite, he subtracts a month to make them worse. And to review what is pointed out by others, he’s a catcher…. Now let’s look at September and how he and Heyward have faired in the middle of a great pennant race!
Thank you! I was hoping i wasn’t the only person that caught that. Theres one word that describes that whole analigy “IDIOTIC”
not much an impact…granted Garcia will be a consistently great pitcher. I think his stuff is dominant. His impact on the team however was less significant. ROY is hard to give to pitchers because they play every 5 days. Buster Posey is the clear favorite and deserves to win this. He puts up the numbers every day, was an IMMEDIATE impact player on the Giants, and has a cannon of a throwing arm on defense. Heyward strike out rate is a disgrace compared to Posey. Posey has a higher ab/hr rate and higher OPS and significantly higher batting average. If you want to compare pitcher to hitter go ahead but overall (every day considered) Buster has the biggest positive impact. He completely changed the offensive dynamic of that team. Now they’re practically in the playoffs
With August done and September half-way though, Buster Posey is batting .325 and has 14 HRs. Despite having over 100 AB’s less than Heyward, I would not be surprised if he ends up with more HR’s.
On top of that he’s playing catcher. The Giants have the best ERA in all of baseball for September. Something like 1.58. He’s calling great games and throwing out baserunners.
Hand down, Posey is ROY.
But, to be fair, I think Gaby Sanchez of FLA deserved to be on this list as well.
Nylund, it’s hard to argue with the clinic Posey’s put on lately. I’m not sure I believe that he’s calling every pitch of every game he catches, but for someone to be batting .325 as a rookie catcher (and batting cleanup!), he’s definitely special. I still like Garcia, personally, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Posey won it.
He is definitely calling every pitch of every game. That is the reason he didn’t get called up to the majors earlier, to get acclimated to the speed of a major league game. He’s only been playing catcher since his SOPHOMORE YEAR IN COLLEGE! ..and he throws out almost every would-be base stealer. Plus! he plays first…well. And he had the game winning home run last night for his now 15 HRs, .324 avg.
ROY no doubt! next Joe Mauer
thats terrible, for heyward your removing his worst month, for posey your removing his best month? great reasoning! just admit who you like and why, and stop trying to tilt stats.
You guys obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Jason Heyward is by far the best choice. Who hit a homer in there first mlb at bat in a fairly good sized park? Who has come up with clutch hits? Who has over 85 walks as a rookie? Let me guess, none of the other candidates. Jaime Garcia isn’t as valuable playing only 1 in 5 games. Buster Posey is just overrated in a terrible division. Heyward was even out for a month with a thumb injury and he is still close to the top or at the top in every catagory for rookies. So when it all comes down to it, you know who deserves it the most.
If you want to go by who hit a homerun in his first carrer at bat then I think Daniel Nava should be at the top of the podium. He hit a grand slam in his first carrer at bat. Plus he went to my high school. 85 walks are nice if you don’t also have 100+ strikeouts. play good and bad stats buddy. Posey takes the cake easy between him and Heyward.
heyward isnt even in the top three stop kidding yourself
Ouch, Buster, less good division etc, etc, ROY, Catcher of the year, World series champion, Kiss my ring.
Heyward was under all this pressure coming into this season and he performed great this year. Just wait till he’s in the playoffs baby.
He played really great under pressure in the playoffs. Well at least as good as someone who has two hands around their neck can play. 2 for 16 no runs no RBI and no extra base hit. You can go find Posey’s stats for yourself. They were a lot better.
What kind of Stat Bias is this? “You toss out Posey’s Hot July month stats and say he’s ho hum, and then you toss out Heyward’s bad month and say he’s great? Either you toss out both a bad month or toss out their best month. You can’t skew the stats the way your article reads. You said it all, you’re a Rockies fan. Enough said.
I’ve seen a lot of comments on this issue, so I’ll go ahead and address it. The reason I tossed out Posey’s hot month and Heyward’s cold month (which I admit can look like I’m biased against Posey) was because I think the best way to get a representative look at a player is to see how they play most often. Aside from his red-hot July, Posey had a pretty average year (of course, this article was written in August, so it doesn’t reflect his impressive September numbers). Same goes for Heyward, but in reverse (great season outside of a terrible June).
Since Posey turned in an impressive September and was the driving force behind the Giants making the playoffs, I’d definitely write this differently were I to write it today. I still like Garcia a lot, but I think Posey’s probably done enough to earn the Rookie of the Year award this year. (Of course, Heyward will probably still win it, but that’s the east coast bias for you.)
Under Pressure…
NLDS STATS
Posey: 6 for 16, 2 runs, OPB .444, SLG .438, BA .375
Heywood: 2 for 16, 0 runs, OPB .176, SLG .125, BA .125
Advantage Posey. Especially considering the high quality pitching that characterized this series.
Sam since when is batting .240 .360 .520 .880 6 19 13 26 a great month? Oh wait you are a rocks fan where you like your hitters to have a terrible average but mash away at balls for dingers. So to say that Heyward has a great year outside of one month is misleading. Another thing you are not taking into consideration is Buster came up hot starting in late may and going into early June, but then took a serious nose dive as June went on. This is what contributed to his .259 Avg in June and not included those ABs in May are also misleading.
Posey should win the NL ROY because he is doing all that his done while playing the most important position. Nough Said!!!!
Posey was far better in the playoffs than Heyward… Heyward went an awful 2 for 16 (.125 AVG) with 8 stikeouts and 1 walk. Posey on the other hand was 6 for 16 (.375 AVG) 5 strikeouts, 2 walks, a double, 3 runs scored and a stolen base.
If you want to discuss who the better player was under pressure thats what you should be looking at. Both had the same number of at bats and one produced far better than the other did. Heyward choked in the playoffs. Personally, I would want a rookie to win the ROY award who actually won the big games. Heyward simply didn’t.
And just some more food for thought. Heyward had 520 at bats this year to Posey’s 406. Heyward hit 18 HR and had 72 RBI. Posey hit 18 HR and 67 RBI. Heyward did have an impressive 91 walks while Posey only had 30 but Heyward also struck out 128 times while Posey struck out only 55 times.
How about you do your research first and then say Heyward beats Posey. Even if I didn’t have a bias towards Posey I could still see he was a very better player this year.
As for Garcia I think he has done a great job but 8 losses and no postseason wreck any chance he has of winning ROY even though his stats as a rookie pitcher are very impressive.
However, the person I see having the best chance of beating Posey is definetly Gaby Sanchez. In 572 AB he hit 19 HR and had 85 RBI along with along with 57 walks and 101 strikeouts. Unfotunatly, much like Garcia I think he will be hurt by Florida’s abscense in the playoffs.
Posey has made the biggest impact this year for his team and his stats are just as good as both Sanchez and Heyward even though he has 100+ less AB then both of them. Garcia was impressive but its hard for a pitcher to win ROY because of so few games played.
My bet is Posey takes ROY.
O by the way. He is still performing well in the playoffs. 1 for 11 in the first 3 games of the NLCS but is 2 for 2 right now with 2 RBI.
Ok first of all what position does that Retawd i mean heyward play? oh yeah out field?! and what position does Posey play oh yeah catcher…some may say the most important one on the field. Also he caught one of the most feard pitching staffs of the last ten years and helped lead them to a NL west championship…a NLCS championship and oh yeah a WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP! what did Heyward help led his team too… yeah thats what i thought. And all this talk about taking his great month out and taking Heywards shitty month out is rediculous! you cant do that cuz they happened and thats why we play the game. Cuz Posey had a great month cuz he is a beast and heyward is weak cuz he had a horrible month. thats that.