For BYU Football, Going Independent Is A No-Brainer

Just when you thought you were out, conference realignment pulls you back in again.

The BYU Cougars dropped a bombshell on college football yesterday by letting slip that they’re considering abandoning the Mountain West Conference and becoming an independent school, similar to Notre Dame. The announcement had a ripple effect throughout the sport. The MWC immediately invited two other WAC schools to join the conference in an effort to balance out the potential loss of the Cougars. The WAC responded by announcing that all of its schools have a $5 million buyout to prevent other conferences from raiding their ranks. And on top of that, pundits are debating whether BYU could receive an agreement with the BCS similar to Notre Dame’s, and whether this is a good or really foolish move on the part of the Cougars.

Admittedly, I’m biased to see only the best for BYU (since it’s my alma mater and all), but the more I think about it, the more I think this is a really smart move for the Cougars. Financially, it makes a lot of sense. Right now, as a member of the MWC they share in any BCS money brought in by any members of their conference. This means even though they weren’t selected to play in a BCS game last season, they received some money because TCU played in the Fiesta Bowl.

However, not only do they have to share that money with the rest of the conference, under the terms of the current BCS agreement they have to share that money with every other school outside of an automatically qualifying conference. That means not only is that money split among the 9 MWC schools, but the MAC, WAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt schools also get a piece of the pie. Suddenly that $17 million payout becomes closer to $1 million, tops.

As an independent, BYU would be entitled to keep all of the payout if they were selected to play. That’s about a $16 million difference.

Of course, that’s assuming they play in a BCS bowl game, which they have yet to do. But there’s every reason to think that their road to the BCS would be much clearer than it is in the MWC. Now that they are no longer required to schedule the likes of New Mexico and Colorado State, they can give themselves a much tougher slate and have an easier time climbing the polls.

Who would they schedule? To figure that out, let’s consider the case of Notre Dame, the school (now) most similar to BYU. Every year, the Fighting Irish regularly schedule some combination of Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, USC, Stanford, Boston College, and Navy. Certainly the fact that these are storied rivalries and the Notre Dame name help in getting these schools on the schedule, but the fact is that this is a mutually beneficial arrangement. Both schools get to strengthen their schedules by putting each other on the slate.

Clearly, no one is mistaking BYU for the celebrated history of Notre Dame, but there’s no denying the Cougars are a national power. BYU is a perennial 10-win team and a mainstay in the top 25. They shouldn’t have any problem getting tough schools on their schedule. In fact, since both teams would be independents and have played each other in the past, it’s reasonable to assume that both BYU and Notre Dame would be happy to schedule each other in the future.

Notre Dame bases its schedule on teams from the Big Ten and Big East, but also incorporates teams from the Pac-10, ACC, and other independents. Since some of those conferences are chosen based on geography, let’s switch those for conferences based in the west. (Rumor has it that BYU would join the WAC for all other non-football sports and would be asked to schedule 3-4 WAC teams each year, so we’ll include them, too.) Here’s a best-case scenario of what BYU could come up with for a schedule in 2011.

@ Washington
San Diego State
Fresno State
@ Utah State
Air Force
Notre Dame
TCU
@ UCLA
Nevada
@ Navy
Tulsa
@ Utah

Not too shabby, right? This assumes they would try to continue existing MWC and WAC rivalries, but also add in Pac-10 powers and some independents, and that’s without considering the Big 12. (One could easily switch teams like Tulsa and Navy for Missouri and Kansas State.) BYU could probably do as well as 10-2 against this kind of schedule, which would certainly put them in the top 25. After a couple of years of playing a schedule like this, they would build up some national cred, earn themselves a top-14 ranking, and be eligible for an at-large selection.

But that’s assuming they can schedule tough teams. What if they have a hard time finding decent schools to play against (unlikely, since their 66,000-seat stadium would be a draw for most any school looking for a cut of the gate) and end up playing the dregs of these conferences? Let’s take a look at what such a schedule would look like.

@ Washington State
San Diego State
@ Idaho
@ Utah State
New Mexico
San Jose State
Colorado State
@ Arizona State
Hawaii
@ Army
Southern Methodist
@ Utah

That’s a pretty terrible schedule at first glance, but take a closer look. How many of those games do you realistically see BYU losing? Other than the season finale at Utah and possibly the Arizona State game, those are all easy wins for the Cougars. They could roll through that schedule and cruise to a top-10 ranking, even potentially cracking the top 5 if they were 12-0. If you don’t believe me, just think about Boise State, who routinely plays a schedule like this and is a regular presence in the top 10.

So even if BYU ends up with a horrible schedule, they can rack up wins and demand national attention, if not respect. Sooner or later, just like Boise State, big names start to schedule them (like Oregon and Virginia Tech), and they develop into a national power. Really, this looks like a win-win scenario for the Cougars.

Of course, it creates chaos for the MWC and WAC, but you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs, right?