Richard Jefferson to the Clippers Makes Almost Too Much Sense

Sometimes people think I’m kidding when I write about the Los Angeles Clippers. Especially about how good they’re going to be next season.

But it all sincerity, Richard Jefferson could be a key piece that the Clips are missing for a playoff run. And he should take an offer from them, if he gets one.

RJ had a bit of a bumpy road last season, as his usual 20ish points a game dwindled to 12 and he never really fit in with the San Antonio Spurs. At 30 years old, it’s likely that he still has a few good years left to play; all reports say that Jefferson, despite meshing fine with Gregg Popovich, wasn’t a good fit with the Spurs’ complex half-court offense. If that’s true, then the reduced production isn’t entirely his fault (some, yes, but not all).

It’s worth noting his shooting percentage didn’t go down. At 46.7%, it was actually the highest it’s been since a career year in 2006. The key stat is that he took fewer shots: 4.5 per game, down from 7.5 two years ago in his last season with New Jersey.

The possible conclusion is that Jefferson wasn’t incapable of scoring last season—he just didn’t. This bodes well for the Clippers, as it puts RJ low (very low, very very low) on the free agent radar this summer, and there’s a chance he could be had for cheap. He opted out of $15.2 million this year with the Spurs, but there’s an outside chance the Clips could lock him up for somewhere around the mid-level exception (roughly $5.6 million a year).

And then, if the new situation facilitates a return to his old form, the Clippers are in great shape.

It works because the small forward position is the one most in flux in the Clippers’ starting five. Baron Davis starts at the point, the rising Eric ‘Webster’ Gordon at the 2, twice-over-rookie Blake Griffin will surely start at power forward, and Chris Kaman was an All-Star last season at center. None of those figure to change.

But at the 3? One-time starter Al Thornton now wears a Wizards uniform. Rasual Butler started most of last season after being acquired from the New Orleans Hornets, but with unimpressive numbers. Travis Outlaw joined the team later in the season as part of the Marcus Camby trade with the Portland Trail Blazers, and managed to start a handful of games. And now the Clippers have drafted up Al-Farouq Aminu, the small forward from Wake Forest, to help plug this leaky position.

But as always, if you think you have several possible starters it’s because you don’t have one player good enough to be your starter. Richard Jefferson would be that guy.

It gives the team some trade ammo, as they could unload Butler, Outlaw, or Steve Novak in a deal to shore up some other positions—they could use a quality backup point guard, as Steve Blake’s contract is up and Baron Davis tends to take breaks. With Camby gone, they could use another big as well. But at least they have solid starters at those positions. And Jefferson would be a nice guy for Aminu to learn from as he grows into his NBA shoes.

The rumor after Day 1 of free agency is that Jefferson wants to move back to the Big Apple and play for the New York Knicks or the New Jersey Nets. Both teams have a lot of money to spend, but let’s be honest—neither have Jefferson even close to their radar at the moment, and both teams would consider him a last, last resort given his performance last season.

The Nets could at least use a starting small forward; the Knicks start Danilo Gallinari at the 3, and he’s one of the few bright spots on that abysmal roster.

Obviously Jefferson isn’t first on the Clippers’ list either, as they met with LeBron James today. But the Clips are still expected to be a long, long, longshot in the LBJ sweepstakes, despite their solid core (their meeting today went less than an hour, and they didn’t have an owner or a coach present). Jefferson looks to be a free agent that will still be standing after all the top-tier and even second-tier players have been taken by sexier teams.

This all said, the chances of the Clippers both getting lucky and striking a great deal—especially with their track record, and current ownership—are very slim. This free agency has already been repeatedly punctured with big deals that are probably too large for the players involved (see: Gay, Rudy and Gooden, Drew). The temptation to overpay when there’s cap space in your pocket is overwhelming.

And in reality, RJ deserves a good solid paycheck when he’s playing up to his standards. It’s unlikely that he’ll dive down into single-digits-per-year when he turned down $15 million from the Spurs. But there’s a chance.

So where does it put the Clippers if they reel in Jefferson? Well, it depends on whether RJ rebounds back into good form, and perhaps even more on how Blake Griffin fares in his NBA debut season. It doesn’t put the Clippers on top of the West, or probably even in a middling playoff seed.

But it puts the 8 seed within reach. Does it make them better than the Rockets (pending any off-season acquisitions), Grizzlies, and Hornets? Likely so. Beating just one more team slides them into that last playoff spot—maybe the Spurs can’t hold on to a playoff spot this time, or maybe the Suns without Amare Stoudemire fall off the map. Or maybe all the Portland centers bust their knees—oh wait, that happened last year.

Richard Jefferson to the Clippers. It’s looking good on paper.

Which probably means it doesn’t happen.