Most of the positions in 2010 NBA free agency are pretty clear cut. For centers, Brendan Haywood in the head of a lackluster class. For point guards, Raymond Felton is tops in a similarly weak class. Dwyane Wade leads the way among shooting guards, followed eventually by Joe Johnson, and LeBron James is the top small forward (and, of course, the biggest prize of the summer).
The power forwards aren’t so clear-cut. There’s Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer all in the mix, and it’s not entirely clear who is better than who.
They’re all fine players, but all perennial underachievers. Chris Bosh has been the best player on a non-playoffs Raptors team. Amare Stoudemire is a max-contract player in one out of every five games. Carlos Boozer is well-respected, but wasn’t even the best player on his team.
Today I’m using How To Watch Sports’s brand-new, super-cool tool, the NBA Spider Graph Generator (found at www.spidergraphs.com) to stack up the three PF’s statistically, based on their 2010 performance. If you’re unfamilar with how Spider Graphs work, get caught up here first.
Graphing all three players together is a little confusing, but it gets us started:
Right off the bat, I’m willing to say that Carlos Boozer, who is usually assumed to be the third-most-preferred PF in free agency, probably isn’t getting enough credit. He’s got an edge, if slight, in four of the six measured statistical categories—but he’s last (again, if only by a slight margin) in scoring, and that’s everybody’s favorite stat.
To make this a little easier to look at, let’s take two at a time. First, Chris Bosh vs. Amare Stoudemire.
The graphs of Bosh and Stoudemire come out surprisingly similar. And the differences probably aren’t a big surprise to anyone who’s seen them play.
There are three categories, including scoring, where they line up quite nicely—which leaves only three categories in which they differ significantly. Amare has the edge in field goal percentage, which comes with his habit of slamming it home whenever possible. SHis jumper is passable, as well, but the higher shooting percentage clearly comes from taking the higher percentage shots.
Bosh, in return, leads in rebounding and assists. Both of these power forwards find themselves in similar rebounding situations—neither plays next to a strong center, and so both are called upon to grab a few boards. Bosh is the only one that does (which is doubly surprising considering Stoudemire’s 20-pound edge on Bosh.). His higher assist number is also appealing to a team looking to land Bosh plus another star, as he is both capable and willing to dish back out from the post.
The edge does indeed go to Bosh here, as most people will tell you, but statistically it’s not by much. The bigger edge is in his consistency, where Amare leaves a handful to be desired.
If Bosh wins this battle, then let’s put him up against Boozer.
Here’s where it gets a little trickier. If Bosh is the big prize among power forwards, then why does Carlos Boozer beat him in four out of six statistical categories?
Bosh leads in scoring, with 24 points per game last season—good enough for 9th in the league (Boozer put in 19.5 ppg, good for 21st). He also has the edge in blocks, averaging about one per game to Boozer’s .5 per game. Boozer’s advantages, however, are just that much more in quantity. He has a better percentage from the field plus more rebounds, assists, and steals.
So why does everybody want Bosh? At this point, it has more to do with who you’d rather build your franchise around. Bosh is slightly younger (he’s 26; Boozer is 28, which to a GM sounds a lot closer to the dreaded 30), and has exuded a bit more of the superstar vibe since he entered the league.
I don’t think the stats are misleading here, though, as I’ve never been as high on Bosh as many. I think Bosh’s inclusion with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade as a top-tier free agent is a media creation—he’s an excellent player and one of the top bigs available this summer, but the numbers back up the idea that he’s not head and shoulders above Stoudemire and Boozer. None of them are MVP material, and none of them should be considered to be in LeBron and D-Wade’s tier.
Finally, to have all bases covered, here’s Stoudemire vs. Boozer:
More of the same. Both players like to finish at the rim, so there’s no big advantage in field goal percentage. Stoudemire, like Bosh, has the edge in blocks and scoring, but loses out to Boozer in everything else.
In the end, the numbers give us a couple things: (1) there isn’t a tremendous statistical difference between Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire, though you still have to give Bosh the edge in consistency; and (2) Carlos Boozer won’t necessarily be a consolation prize to whoever gets him (likely Miami or Chicago). He still has plenty of juice left, and he’s going to be making that angry face at opposing players for a while longer.
As of writing this, it sounds like Amare Stoudemire is a done deal to the New York Knicks. More power to them. While they might regret the contract in a few years when Amare’s knees/eyes/motivation give out, they’re getting a solid big man who can cause some real trouble in the middle.
With these three power forwards available, any of the three is a pretty good bet.
Play around with the NBA Spider Graph Generator at www.spidergraphs.com.
Excellent graphs, but I think the biggest reasons Bosh is so much more coveted are Stoudemire’s tendency to play swinging door defense and Boozer’s tendency to stay out for ridiculous amounts of time with little injuries. That’s not to say Bosh is an all-world defender or that he won’t ever get injured, but I think he comes out clearly ahead in those two categories.
I like both of those reasons.
While I don’t think Stoudemire-with-the-Knicks is going to be a rousing team success (especially if they don’t succeed in picking up another star this summer), it looks to certainly be an individual win for Amare. He’s got a massive contract with a team/coach that will encourage stat-padding and not require any defense. No wonder he’s so anxious to sign.
With Boozer it seems to go by season. Here’s how many games he’s played each year, since he’s been in the league: 81, 75, 51, 33, 74, 81, 37, 78. Three of the last four years he’s played solid seasons… but I can make an equally compelling stat by saying that two of the last five years have meant less than 40 games.
Bosh wins by being the least obviously flawed?