You’ve heard the statistic, but here it comes again.
Since 1980, only eight different teams have won the NBA Championship. Since 1980… so 30 years! That’s the Los Angeles Lakers (8), Chicago Bulls (6), San Antonio Spurs (4), Boston Celtics (3), Detroit Pistons (3), Houston Rockets (2), Miami Heat (1), and Philadelphia 76ers (1, in 1983).
Parity, or competitive balance—meaning, how well teams are evenly matched up and down the league—in the NBA has long been a sore spot for me. While many heralded this year’s Lakers-Celtics Finals as the most recent installment of a great rivalry, to me it was a movie that I’ve seen before. And no matter how it ended, I’d already seen the ending, too.
With a good chunk of the NBA’s top talent hitting the free agent market this year (you know the list—LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Amar’e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, etc. etc.), there could theoretically be a real opportunity to shake up the league. Spread the talent around. Let some underdog teams come out of the woodwork with a new look. It could be the classic robbing of the rich to give to the poor. This 2010 NBA free agent summer could be the catalyst toward a new order in the league.
Too bad it’s not going to happen that way.
The extreme lack of parity isn’t going anywhere in the NBA, and league is most likely going to become even more unbalanced in a couple days. Here’s why.
1. Free agency does not favor underdogs or small market teams
This is a harsh reality for a team like the Clippers, who have an impressive core lineup (really) plus the cap space to sign a max contract player. The Clips aren’t going to get LeBron or D-Wade. They’re probably not even going to get Stoudemire or Joe Johnson. By virtue of being the Clippers (and having terrible management), they’re simply not in the running for any of the top free agents.
The same could be said about any number of small market teams, most of which seem to realize they don’t stand a chance in this free agent buyer’s market. The Milwaukee Bucks have always, in the modern game, struggled to land high-level free agents. Same for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The draft favors underdogs—that’s how the Cleveland Cavaliers got LeBron, and how Minnesota got Kevin Garnett—whereas free agency favors the winners.
It’s not as bad as in baseball, where all the top free agents end up playing for the Yankees or the Red Sox. But one thing’s for sure—free agency moves top players up the ladder, not down.
2. The current powers are not losing their stars
With the exception of possibly Ray Allen, none of the Finals teams from the past few years are losing their stars. The Lakers are staying mostly intact, as as the Celtics and Orlando Magic. The Cavaliers are, of course, likely losing LeBron, but as they’ve been a playoff smokescreen since 2007 I’m keeping them off this list.
So if another team rises—the Heat with LeBron/Wade/Bosh, say, or a LeBron/Bosh/Rose Bulls team—they won’t immediately take the NBA throne. The question will then be whether they can contend with the Lakers or the Celtics, who already have rosters nearly that impressive (perhaps lesser in the starters, but probably also stronger on the bench).
In short, it’s impossible to break up the superpowers this summer and distribute their assets across the league. Because the superpowers are staying right where they are.
3. The free agents are looking to create new superpowers, instead of spreading out
Which brings us to this wild new phenomenon of the players calling the shots, instead of the teams.
It’s looking increasingly likely that two (or three!) top-tier players are going to end up on the same team. And then it’s equally likely that another pair of big-deal free agents, from farther down the list, will end up playing together (consider Stoudemire and Johnson both being courted by the Knicks). The players hold the power this summer, and given the option they’ll choose to tip the league’s balance into their favor. Who wouldn’t?
It seems inevitable now that there’s going to be a new super-team. Following in the footsteps of the Boston Celtics assembling their Big Three in one fateful summer, some lucky team is going to buy themselves a title-winner. And the rest of the league is going to hurt because of it.
4. The free agent front runners are already on the list
This is the final piece of the puzzle. Remember our statistic—only eight teams have won the title since 1980? Well, it’s those teams that look favored to come out on top. Again.
Miami seems to be the free agent destination du jour in the last few days, and they’re one of those eight teams that’s won a title in the last 30 years. That was with Shaq; giving D-Wade another All-Star cast puts Miami back on top.
The next most likely seems to be Chicago. They took six titles in the Jordan years, and the concept of a dynastic Bulls team is all too fresh in my mind. While the Bulls may not take the top spot in an all-time historic look at NBA dynasties, they are the irrefutable kings of the modern era. They’ve had their time. Let’s give someone else a chance.
Ultimately, come July 1st we’re going to witness an NBA free agent madhouse like we’ve never seen (and, if the new CBA ends up anything like has been rumored, like we’ll never see again). The end result isn’t just going to affect what uniforms players are wearing next year—it’s likely going to define the NBA’s powers for the next five, ten years.
And good luck to everybody else.
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