The Summer of 2010: What to Expect from College Football Expansion

Ralphie knocks over opponents. Could Colorado be knocking over the structure of college football as we know it?

Rumors have abounded this spring about conferences expanding and major universities jumping ship. The status quo – largely unchanged for years – was threatening to be turned on its head. Instead of six power conferences, we could be looking at five or even four super conferences dominating the sport. But for all the predictions of doom and gloom, such talk was just that – talk.

That is, until yesterday.

The University of Colorado accepted an invitation to join the Pac-10 yesterday morning, serving as the first domino to be knocked over in a move that will scramble the existing structure in college football. With the Buffaloes leaving the Big 12, it’s likely that the University of Nebraska will head to the Big Ten. (In fact, if those were the only two teams switching conferences, the Big Ten would have 12 members and the Big 12 only ten. Seems like they could just switch names and call it good.) Consistent rumors have most of the rest of the Big 12 South – Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State – following the Buffs to what would become the Pac-16. That would create a superconference out west that could potentially demand two berths in BCS bowls, while leaving the once-mighty Big 12 in shambles.

It’s a big deal, to be sure, and one still in its early stages. No one is quite sure how it’s going to play out. That doesn’t mean we have any shortage of pundits willing to guess, though. Some have the scraps of the Big 12 scuttling to the Mountain West, a conference widely seen as on the verge of becoming an auto-qualifying conference in the BCS. Others see the Big Ten picking up the pieces and becoming a second superconference to rival the Pac-16. Still others see the SEC slipping in and enticing teams like Texas and Texas A&M to join their ranks.

What’s clear, however, is that college football orthodoxy as we know it is going to undergo serious changes over the coming weeks and months. So what should we expect coming into the 2010 season?

Actually, you can probably expect things to be more or less the same. While Colorado has accepted an invitation to join the Pac-10, it won’t take effect until 2012. The Buffaloes are still obligated to play a Big 12 schedule until that time. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, since they (as well as most other teams) already have a schedule in place for the 2012 season. The Huskers will be in a similar situation if they choose to join the Big Ten (which seems almost a certainty at this point).

That said, they will clearly be on their way out the door, which could make for an awkward two years. Colorado’s move is likely to be the catalyst for other major teams to make their moves, which could result in the end of the Big 12 conference. If that happens, expect them to receive unfriendly welcomes in places like Kansas and Missouri, teams expected to be left in the cold during realignment.

If those schools have trouble finding a home, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mountain West, major up-and-comers in the football world, welcoming them with open arms. This is doubly advantageous for the MWC. Not only would they receive celebrated programs that would bolster their credentials as a football conference, but adding the likes of Kansas and Kansas State would do wonders for them as a basketball conference. The more these schools are ignored, the happier the MWC will be.

Assuming the MWC is successful in picking up the pieces from the Big 12 (which would probably be Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, and possibly even Boise State from the WAC), they can realistically expect to be given an auto bid to the BCS starting in 2012. What is less clear is the form the BCS will take after realignment.

Currently, six conferences (the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC) receive auto bids to BCS bowls. If the Big 12 goes under and the MWC takes its place, we could see a similar setup with six power conferences. But if the Pac-10 or Big Ten succeed in becoming 16-team superconferences, they might demand a second bid to the BCS, one for each 8-team division. If that happens, conferences without an automatic spot for their champions will be extremely upset. Complaints that the BCS excludes non-traditional schools will become even louder as at-large spots dry up.

It’s an interesting situation. Rising powers like TCU, Utah, and BYU have to be ecstatic about the future. However, other rising powers like Missouri and Baylor could find themselves out in the cold if things don’t shake their way.

Ultimately, there’s little that can be done at this point but waiting to see how things unfold. One thing is sure, though – the summer of 2010 will long be remembered as the summer that changed college football for years to come.