2010 NBA Finals: The Lakers and Celtics in Spider Graphs

Los Angeles Lakers (57-25) vs. Boston Celtics (50-32)
Regular season series: Even, 1-1

The Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics played each other twice this year, nineteen days apart. The Lakers won the first by a single point, on a Kobe Bryant game-winner.

And the Celtics won the other. By a single point.

There’s a lot of hubbub over these times that has nothing to do with how good they are. I don’t care that they played each other in the Finals two years ago—it’s not relevant to this year. I certainly don’t care how many times they’ve played in the past. Or how many rings Kobe has in his trophy case.

What we have here is the teams with the first and third-highest payrolls in the league (the Dallas Mavericks are in between), which also translates to arguably the two strongest, deepest talent pools in the league. No tricks. No Cinderella stories. Just a superbly talented starting five for each team, plus a couple of solid contributors off the bench.

In Boston’s case, their Big Three are uber-experienced, uber-talented players, and perhaps none of them are their best player at the moment (that would be Rajon Rondo). The Lakers’ problem is with numbers: do they have a Big Two? Big Three? Big Four, or Big Five? Each position is loaded with talent and experience, so much so that they defy nicknames.

Here at How To Watch Sports we like to break down each position using Spider Graphs. If you’re just getting caught up, learn about Spider Graphs here first.

We might as well start at the point.

There’s no question who’s got the advantage here. Rondo’s graph swallows Derek Fisher’s. Devours it. Puts it on a bed of potatoes, covers it in gravy and has it for dinner.

Fisher knows his role, though, and it’s not to get a lot of touches and score a lot of points. Fish comes out to shine late in games, when he can drop a dagger three when the defense double- and triple-teams Kobe Bryant. That’s when Derek Fisher will kill you.

Expect the Lakers to swap somebody else onto Rondo defensively, as he’s much too quick for Fisher (perhaps Kobe at times, or Shannon Brown off the bench). Rondo’s going to cause trouble for anyone he guards, for sure, but he should also be a huge contributor on offense: it the Lakers bigs collapse on defense when he drives, he’ll dish to an open teammate; if they don’t collapse, he’ll get the bucket every time.

Advantage: Celtics.

Ray Allen is a star, and could be a starter on any team in the league. Kobe Bryant, however, is a superstar, and could start on any team in history.

Ray-Ray has been solid in these playoffs, and despite a few tough nights has scored 20 points or more in over half the games. His best move is the quick jumper off a ball-screen at the top of the key, and when it’s going in he’s absolutely unguardable. He’ll need to be hitting it, because the Celtics will need the offensive production.

I don’t think I need to say much about Kobe. So I’ll just say…

Advantage: Lakers.

One shortcoming of Spider Graphs, just like with box scores, is that they don’t give proper credit to defensive specialists. Paul Pierce’s graph reflects his greater production on offense this season, but Artest will likely give him fits in this series.

Artest has been miserable on offense this year, as you can see from his terrible shooting percentage. He didn’t get as many touches as he’s used to getting, especially coming from Houston where he was an offensive leader, and it seems that he never hit his groove. With the weapons that the Lakers have, it’s going to be better if he lets his teammates take the shots, and focuses on shutting down The Truth.

After a lackluster Cleveland series, Pierce bounced back with 24 points per game (and two 30+ point nights) against the Magic. He’s been Boston’s leading scorer since, let’s see, the 2000-2001 season, and the Celtics are much better when he’s leading the charge. He’ll have Artest hounding him, but he should still make a difference.

Advantage: Celtics.

Pau Gasol is the second-best player on the Lakers’ roster, and his graph illustrates the proper edge he’ll have over Kevin Garnett. We can all hope that for our sakes as fans, these two guys have an Intense Face battle on national television.

When Pau came to the Lakers, he joined a crowded frontcourt and became the third seven-footer on the roster. And yet, somehow, he’s increased his rebounding each season. He’s just getting better and better, and when Kobe starts to fade this’ll be his team. He holds the ball high, takes high-percentage shots, and gets his hands in the way on defense.

While most of the Boston Celtics get accused of being old, Kevin Garnett is showing the most effects. His scoring has been down each season he’s been in Boston, and now he’s more of an emotional leader than a big producer on the court. He’s going to need to show up on defense, or Gasol is going to walk all over him.

Advantage: Lakers.

We’re 2-2 so far in position matchups, and now we’ve reached two centers with nearly identical Spider Graphs. When we hear about Andrew Bynum, he’s often pegged as a potential star. Kendrick Perkins gets tagged as a role player, but in the end their numbers are strikingly similar.

Perkins is a big, solid guy, and he isn’t afraid to be a physical defender. Andrew Bynum can be a very dynamic player, but his knee could be a problem. They drained the fluid, the fluid came back—he’s not 100%, and that’s enough to sway the matchup.

Advantage: Celtics.

When it comes to evaluating sixth men, we have a serious decision to make. Do we consider the Lamar Odom that shows up occasionally, takes over games, and is as forceful as any player in the league for out of every, say eight games? Or do we take the guy that shows up the rest of the nights?

Things aren’t much better on the Boston side of the ball—inconsistency is the name of Rasheed Wallace’s game. Consider his scoring in each of the Orlando games: 13, 6, 10, 4, 21, 0. In about 17 minutes per night.

I’m going to let the Spider Graphs lead the way on picking the advantage. They seem to have it figured out.

Advantage: Lakers.

That makes the graphs even out: the Lakers have the edge in three, and the Celtics have the edge in the other three. It’s not a huge surprise; as we’ve established, both of these teams are loaded at every position.

So who gets the overall edge? Only one of these teams has a player that gets mentioned when we talk about the best players in the league. Rajon Rondo has elevated his game to make him one of the top five or so point guards in the league, but it’s definitely not him we’re talking about.

Whenever Kobe Bryant is on the floor, no late-game lead is safe. He’s credited with six buzzer-beating, game-winning shots this season—meaning he won one out of every 13 or 14 games with clutch shots. The Lakers have an uncanny ability to pull close at the end, and then Kobe has a scary ability to seal the deal.

If it’s a close series, like many people are predicting, then we already know the winner.

Prediction: Lakers in 6.