From Ancient Grudge, the Suns and Spurs Break to New Mutiny

Phoenix Suns (54-28) vs. San Antonio Spurs (50-32)

Regular season series: Suns, 2-1

Since Steve Nash joined the team in 2004, the Phoenix Suns have made the playoffs four times. They have consistently been one of the best teams in the league, averaging 55 wins per season. Yet they don’t have a championship to show for it, or even a trip to the NBA Finals. And the single biggest reason for that is staring them in the face in this second round matchup. Three out of their four playoff runs ended with a loss to the San Antonio Spurs. In fact, the Suns haven’t beaten the Spurs in a playoff series since 2000, when they edged them 3-2 before being swept by the Lakers.

These teams know each other. They don’t like each other. In Phoenix, the Spurs are Public Enemy #1. And with the Suns’ core getting older and older, this might be their last shot at a title. Can they get over the hump? Can they exorcise the Spurs demons holding them back?

Since nothing is quite so important in the playoffs as matchups, we’ll turn to those to see how these teams will fare against each other. As always, we’ll use Spider Graphs to measure each player’s contributions and ability.

The point guard matchup is closer than you might expect. Steve Nash has been having an outstanding season, rejuvenating his team and garnering some MVP consideration. But it’s not as though Tony Parker is a slouch. His numbers stack up pretty well against Nash’s. He’s quick, agile, has excellent court vision, and get into the lane seemingly at will.

There are two things to consider here, though. Parker broke his hand earlier this season, and is still struggling to recover. He’ll play, certainly, and he’ll perform well, but he probably won’t be quite up to his usual standard. And secondly, and perhaps most importantly, Nash obliterates Parker in terms of assists. Nash can score, and score efficiently, but he can also get his teammates involved. In fact, he was the league leader in assists this year. That’s enough for me to take Nash here. Advantage: Suns.

The shooting guard position is an interesting one. Both players are immensely talented and capable of lighting up the scoreboard at a moment’s notice. Jason Richardson certainly did so against Portland, averaging over 23 points per game. But while he did that against the shattered remnants of an injury-riddled Blazers squad, Manu Ginobili scored 19 a game against Dallas, and he did that with a broken nose. Ginobili also tends to create more for his teammates than Richardson, as you can tell by the right side of his graph. I like Manu here, but I think Richardson could really swing the series in Phoenix’s favor by outplaying him. Advantage: Spurs.

The power forward position gives us the two brightest stars in this series in Amar’e Stoudemire and Tim Duncan. These two provide a stark contrast, and sum up their respective teams’ philosophies. Stoudemire is nothing short of an offensive menace. When he gets the ball in the low post, he’s completely unstoppable. He lives to posterize his opponents. He’s the surest two points since Shaq was in his heyday.

On the flip side, Duncan is a defensive terror. Sure, he can score as well as anyone else, but his focus is on rebounds and blocks. He alters shots merely by being in the lane. He’s also a tremendous passer, blessed with court vision and awareness that point guards would kill for. So who gets the edge here? I know offense sells tickets while defense wins championships, but youth has to play a factor, too. Duncan’s not getting any younger, while Amar’e is right in his prime. This one’s too close to call. Advantage: even.

Production at the other positions (small forward, center, and bench) is more or less even, so we’ll stick with these three. This series is going to be close. I think it goes seven games no matter who wins. But does Phoenix have what it will take to edge the Spurs dynasty? An aging dynasty, to be sure, but a dynasty nonetheless. On the other hand, do the Spurs have what it will take to keep up with the high-octane Suns? I’m not sure on either count. I think it comes down to these last two matchups. If Manu and Duncan can turn back the clock and outplay their counterparts, I like the Spurs here. But if Richardson and Amar’e can keep up their production, I think the Suns could break through and finally put away their hated rivals.

I hate to pick against the Spurs, since I know in the back of my mind they’re going to make me look foolish. But I hate even more to pick against the Suns. They may not win the title, but I think they can beat San Antonio. For now, that will have to be enough.

Prediction: Suns in seven.