Atlanta Hawks: Here Today, On a Milk Carton Tomorrow

Remember the Atlanta Hawks?

They were one of the East’s elite. They were at least on par with the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic for a reasonable chunk of the season. In late November they still held the league’s best record. And on December 28th, with a full third of the season complete, ESPN’s John Hollinger calculated that they had a 23.1% chance of winning the championship. For contrast, he put the Los Angeles Lakers at 9.4%.

In the playoffs, though, it’s been a different story. The Hawks went to seven games against a mediocre Milwaukee Bucks team that was missing their best player. Now they haven’t shown up at all against the Magic: they’ve lost by 43, 14, and 30—averaging an astounding 29-point loss per game.

Has anybody seen this team?

I boldly predicted, before this series began, that they’d get up to play the Magic, and that they were just taking the Bucks too lightly. My exact words were that it “won’t be a short series.” Please hold while I eat those words.

Okay. This isn’t a team that is going to be the first to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series, either. This isn’t one of those situations where they lost a couple games at the buzzer, or the officiating decided a couple, or a bad bounce turned a win into a loss. This is a team that has quit.

You can’t pin it on a single player, but we all knew that the Hawks wouldn’t have a chance without consistently good production from Joe Johnson. His numbers have only been consistent in that they’ve been consistently below-average: He’s scored 10, 19, and 8 points in the games against the Magic, and (not surprisingly) the game where he scored the most was the most competitive.

This particular Hawks team, however, should have had the depth to compensate. Josh Smith scored 20 points or more in 19 games this season. Jamal Crawford can, and does, fill it up off the bench—but even he had a 5-point, 1-assist, 2-rebound disaster in 34 minutes in Game 1. If the Hawks were leading the series, it would be because of a Herculean performance by newly-minted All-Star Al Horford—and while he posted one double-double game with 24 points and 10 boards, he’s also had games with 11/8 and a painful 4/6.

This, then, is the end of the Hawks’ relevance in the NBA, at least for a while. Or at least it seems like it.

Joe Johnson is one of those free agents in the 2010 class that everyone seems certain will move. Mike D’Antoni is said to have made comments off the record, back in Johnson’s Phoenix Suns days, that Johnson is the type who prefers to be the best player on a bad team, rather than a mere role player on a contender. Regardless, word around the Interwebs is that Joe is gone, and that’s bad news for the Hawks.

Without Johnson, the Hawks roll back a few years in their progress. When he joined the team in 2005, they won 26 games—double their 13 wins the year before. In the following years they won 30, 37, 47, and then 53 this year—which landed them the 3rd seed in the East and league-wide respect.

The final piece clicking into place this year was Jamal Crawford, who has come off the bench playing starter’s minutes and posting starter’s numbers. Without Johnson, and without the acquisition of a solid free agent to take his place, Crawford moves into the starting five and the Hawks hurt sorely in the depth department.

Or, in other words, the Hawks go back to square one. You don’t have a shot against the elite teams in the East with a short rotation.

So, without mincing words, this was the Hawks’ shot. They were a finished product. Years of building came to a head, and they came up royally short. Their only hope of maintaining what they’ve built—let alone taking it further—is a big-time free agent acquisition, but even with a big name it’s still trying to  replace the centerpiece they’ve built around for five years.

Next year, we can count on the Orlando Magic being good. The Boston Celtics will probably still have some fight in them. And chances are good that the Cleveland Cavaliers will still have LeBron James. Beyond that, the Miami Heat will likely be improving their roster, the Milwaukee Bucks are a team on the rise, and the Chicago Bulls should, with a new coach, make waves. There won’t be a lot of room in the East for a Hawks team that suddenly needs to rebuild.

Ultimately, Atlanta has two options if they want to compete: (1) hold onto Joe Johnson, which seems extremely unlikely, or (2) make some major moves in the offseason.

They’re done. They’re finished.

And yes, I use past tense. Because they’re already gone.