2010 NBA Playoffs: Magic and Hawks Won’t Be a Short Series

Grrrrr...

Orlando Magic (59-23) vs. Atlanta Hawks (53-29)
Regular season series: Orlando wins, 3-1

The Orlando Magic are beastly. We know that. Not the team you want to see on the other side of a tip-off. They’re deep, they’re talented, and they’ve got a superhero at center—a superhero that looks like he’s on major ‘roids and who mostly focuses on making people wish their parents had never found fit to conceive them.

No, the big question surrounding this series isn’t about the Magic. Instead, the big question is which Atlanta Hawks team is going to show up to play.

Will it be the Hawks that, through November and December, looked like a realistic contender for the East title? The team that stuck it to the Cavaliers in consecutive games to end 2009?

Or will it be the team that needlessly coughed up three games to a Milwaukee Bucks team that was missing its best player?

The biggest answers are going to come from individual matchups. We’ve analyzed them via Spider Graphs, and the results put the series into stark perspective. It looks like there are four matchups that could decide the whole series.

First, the shooting guards.

Regardless of who the better player is, Joe Johnson’s role with the Hawks is greater than Vince Carter’s role with the Magic. If the Hawks are going to have a chance in this series, Johnson needs to be in top form. That’s not going to guarantee a win—rather, if he doesn’t have a good game, it almost guarantees a loss.

For Vince, the key is efficiency rather than prolificacy. Because of Orlando’s depth of offensive weapons, he shouldn’t have to carry the team—and instead he can wait for his shots to come.

Advantage: Even.

Josh Smith is the heart and soul of this Hawks team. Rashard Lewis’s scoring output is pretty comparable, but as you can see from the Spider Graphs, that’s about where the similarity ends.

Smith isn’t the only player-to-player matchup that the Hawks have the advantage in, but he does represent the biggest mismatch that they can exploit.

Advantage: Hawks.

Ahh, Dwight Howard. He led the league in three statistical categories this season (rebounds, blocks, and field goal percentage), and that’s why his graph is maxed out on three axes. He’s the closest thing the league has to the power center of the 2000′s—I’m talking about Shaquile O’Neal mostly, but also Tim Duncan—and nobody else even comes close.

Al Horford, however, is still a compelling force inside. ESPN’s Chris Sheridan points out that Horford’s line in the playoffs so far manhandles Howard’s: 15.6 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 56% from the field and 74% from the line for Horford, while Howard put up 9.8, 9.3, 48% and an abysmal 38% from the line.

It’s completely true that Howard put up those numbers against constant double-teams from the Bobcats’ three-deep center position, while Horford didn’t get nearly that much resistance from the Andrew Bogut-less Bucks. The point is, however, that Horford can play, and that Howard is actually going to have some resistance.

If Horford can parlay Howard’s on-court passion into foul trouble for the big man (Howard literally average 5.5 fouls per game against the Bobs), then the Hawks can steal some games.

Advantage: Magic.

Depth is an interesting comparison between these two teams. The Magic have a competent stable of role players: Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick and Jason Williams. The Hawks, on the other hand, have the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year in Jamal Crawford.

Crawford has been the big difference in Atlanta’s team this year, and he could make an enormous difference in this series.

His scoring burst off the bench is exactly what you need in a sixth man. He can lead the second squad and legitimately spell Joe Johnson without the team missing a beat. Trust me—every teams wishes they had a dynamic bench leader like Crawford.

Advantage: Hawks.

The smart money is on the Magic to take this series, as they’ve proven to be a juggernaut that won’t go down easily. The extra-smart money, though, is not on Orlando to rumble through with a sweep.

While the point guard and small forward matchups are mostly a wash, the Hawks have major advantages at power forward and off the bench, and actually have a center who can at least not get stepped on by Dwight Howard.

I’m still picking the Magic, but I’m also counting on the Hawks returning to their true elite form. And putting up a fight.

Prediction: Magic in 7.