2010 NBA Playoffs: Magic and Celtics Meet Again

Orlando Magic (59-23) vs. Boston Celtics (50-32)
Regular season series: Orlando wins, 3-1

One of these teams was expected to be here. That’d be the Orlando Magic.

The Boston Celtics, on the other hand, have surprised a few people.

It’s perhaps this series that will determine how we refer to this era of Celtics. When we assumed that they’d lose to the Cavaliers, it made their definition easy: they were a purchased championship; a team of aging, declining stars who had enough juice to win a title but not enough to sustain much of anything after that. They were a one-hit wonder.

The C’s unexpected demolition of the Cavs, however, starts to instead bring about comparisons to the San Antonio Spurs of recent years: a team who defies its age by bottling up its gusto and releasing it all during the playoffs, and a team who is “experienced” rather than “old”.

Unfortunately for Boston, their road to prove themselves takes them through Orlando, who is playing some of the most dominant basketball we’ve seen from any team this season. They’re extremely well-coached, they stick to their system, and they’ve got an eclectic blend of experience and youthful athleticism.

And the playoffs, as we know, are all about matchups. We’ve used Spider Graphs to break down some of the key individual matchups. Here goes.

This is undeniably the most important matchup for the Celtics. Rajon Rondo showed yet again in the Cleveland series that he’s the best player on this team, and he creates a huge matchup problem on both ends of the floor for underqualified PGs.

Jameer Nelson, however, is just athletic enough to keep up—at least he shouldn’t have nearly the problems that Mo Williams did. We can see from the Spider Graph that Nelson is neither the offensive funnel or defensive menace that Rondo is, but he also has a much smaller role in his team’s offense. He doesn’t need to pour in 30 points a night, but if he can contain Rondo to any extent then the Magic will be poised to take the series quickly.

Advantage: Celtics.

The shooting guards are surprising in how similar their graphs come out. Both Vince Carter and Ray Allen have been around (Carter has been in the league since ’98, Allen since ’96), and if one can significantly outplay the other it might make the difference in this series.

Seeing as the Celtics will have their hands full with Dwight Howard, it’s important that they win the other individual matchups to swing the balance in their favor. Ray-Ray has dropped more than 20 points five times in these playoffs so far—and the Celtics have won all five of those games.

Advantage: Even.

Finally, the elephant in the room. Dwight Howard is, in fact, the size of an elephant, and his Spider Graph shows just how dominant he’s been this season.

That said, Howard is the best in a weak generation of centers. Kendrick Perkins may not be a 2000-era Shaq or a 2003 Tim Duncan, but he’s a serviceable starting-quality center. The drawback? He committed five fouls in three of the six games against Cleveland—and Rasheed Wallace might not be the physical presence needed to contain Howard.

Expect a big series from Superman, no matter what. And if Perkins’s knee is acting up, we might see Howard win this series on his own.

Advantage: Magic.

In the remaining positions, each team takes home one advantage: Paul Pierce can be expected to outperform Matt Barnes at the 3, and Kevin Garnett should clean up Rashard Lewis at the 4.

The biggest wildcard in this series is the Celtics’ play as a team. We haven’t seen anything but dominating, cohesive, cutthroat basketball from the Orlando Magic, and they seem to be a known quantity. The C’s big loss at home to the Cavaliers raises big questions, however. If they play like they did in games 5 and 6 against Cleveland, they’ll be competitive in this series.

If they don’t, then this era of the Celtics may very well be over.

Prediction: Magic in 5.