2010 NBA Playoffs: Cavaliers and Celtics Are Playing for Blood

Cleveland Cavaliers (61-21) vs. Boston Celtics (50-32)
Regular season series: Even, 2-2

Boy, do we love to see a playoff series where there’s bad blood.

I’m being a little presumptuous, of course. I actually don’t have any idea if there are grudges felt between the Cavaliers and the Celtics, or if professional athletes really get caught up in all that like us fans do. I don’t necessarily have any reason to think this particular series digs up any deep, subterranean Eastern Conference rivalry.

But come on. There’s going to be LeBron James, Kevin Garnett and a fistful of other colorful personalities. It’s going to be a good one to watch.

The regular season series was bookended by a pair of Boston victories, with a couple of convincing Cleveland wins in between. The Celtics won when the two teams met in the first game of the season, when the Cavs started slow—but also won a nail-biter on April 4th when LeBron’s game-winning three-pointer didn’t fall.

What’s really going to make the difference in this series is individual match-ups. Let’s take a nice, close look at the key showdowns, with the help of Spider Graphs.

First, the obvious: LeBron James has stolen fire from the gods.

Paul Pierce is a baller—just ask Shaquille O’Neal, Pierce is The Truth—but when matched up with LeBron he looks pretty modest. Pierce’s scoring role is a little bit reduced this year, as well, while LeBron was barely edge out of another scoring title. Let’s be frank: LeBron’s graph swallows up Pierce’s because LeBron is much, much better—and that’s not at all a knock on Pierce.

The bigger question is whether James will guard Piece most of the time, or whether defensive specialist Anthony Parker will take him on. The Cavs might be better suited, however, to put Parker on Rajon Rondo. Let’s see here…

Here’s where the Celtics get a built-in advantage. Mo Williams is a serviceable second banana to LeBron, but Rondo is the new face of these Celtics.

You can see from the Spider Graph that Rondo actually scores slightly fewer points per game than Williams, but the rest of the graph shows how he affects every possession on both ends of the floor. He led the league in steals per game, then was the Celtics’ offensive funnel and came in fourth in the league in assists per game—behind only Steve Nash, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams.

Rondo should be able to shut down Williams, but Mo may not have the defensive chops to return the favor. Watch for Parker to take the assignment, but I’d still count on Rondo having his way.

Which leaves the matchup that may determine the series.

These guys some up all of those goofy words we use to describe veterans, like “wily” and “cagey”. Kevin Garnett has been in the league for 14 years, and Antawn Jamison has 11 seasons under his belt. Basically, we’ve got a couple of dudes who have seen everything.

Almost everything, I suppose—Jamison doesn’t have a championship ring. And if he’d like to get one, this would be a good time to make sure people know his name. He did everything that Cleveland fans hoped he would in the first round against Chicago—he’s averaged 19.4 points per game on almost 51% shooting, and he’s even righted the ship in his free throwing shooting to the tune of 80%.

And then there’s Kevin Garnett. He takes more shots at the rim than Jamison, so his shooting percentage is better. That said, his scoring has gone down every year since his first and championship year in Boston. If he’s the KG of old in this series, then his Celtics are going to have a chance. If, instead, he’s the arthritic, senior-citizen-discount-receiving, chalky bag of bones he can also be, then this is going to be a rather short series.

So, overall?

The Cavaliers have the individual edge, by virtue of having the best player in our galaxy. The Celtics typically have an edge in variety of offensive weapons, but won’t if all the Cavs come to play. The Cavs are 6th in the league in offensive rating, and 7th in defensive. The Celtics are 5th in defense, but an anemic 15th in offense.

The Cleveland LeBrons win the battle of the numbers, but I think they’re also more motivated this year. LBJ looks like he could set a glacier on fire with his determined gaze. These guys have set their sights no lower than a championship, and I think that’s going to give them a major advantage over a Celtics team that has struggled with focus this year.

Prediction: Cavaliers in 6.