Tiger Woods, the second-greatest golfer of all time. Wait, what?
I’m going to make three predictions here. One will be pretty safe, one will be less so, and one will be unthinkably bold. Ready?
First, Tiger Woods will probably not win the Masters this year. Granted, he’s two shots off the lead after the opening round, but I think it’s safe to say he’s unlikely to win his first major after eight months off.
Second, Tiger will probably not win more majors over the course of his career than Jack Nicklaus. Even with just four more to go to tie the Golden Bear, I don’t see him pulling it off.
Third, Tiger will be lucky to win another major ever again. Ever.
Still with me? Take a moment to get your heart started again and I’ll explain myself.
Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods are, in no uncertain terms, the two greatest golfers ever to play the game. Better than Ben Hogan, better than Sam Snead, better than Arnold Palmer. They easily top the all-time leaderboard in major championships with 18 and 14, respectively. The next closest on the list is Walter Hagen, and you’d be forgiven if your first reaction to that name was “Who?” (Hagen won 11 majors between 1914-1929.) No one else even comes within 5 majors. If that doesn’t seem like a lot, consider that in the history of the PGA, only 18 men have won 5 or more majors, period.
Ever since Tiger took the scene in 1997 by winning the Masters at age 21, Nicklaus’ record has been his target. We all assumed he would break it someday. Tiger didn’t disappoint us, keeping pace with Nicklaus early in his career and surpassing that pace by age 26. When he won his 14th major at age 33, he seemed to be a mortal lock to take the top spot.
Some graphs will help to illustrate just how good Tiger has been over the course of his career. This graph shows the pace at which he’s won majors, as compared with Nicklaus.
Jack kept winning majors until age 46. While Tiger might not still be playing at such a high level in twelve years, he might not need that long to get to 19 majors. He’s comfortably above Nicklaus’ pace so far, and has been since 2002. It’s also worth pointing out that he’s not exactly struggling in the tournaments he plays. Let’s look at this graph that shows us his average finish over his career, again compared with Nicklaus.
Tiger’s average has been steadily dropping over the years, implying that he is consistently finishing tournaments well. The spike at the left of the graph shows his first two years on tour, when he finished 41st, 68th, 82nd, and 22nd, when he wasn’t cut or didn’t withdraw. That means he has spent a fair part of his career working off those early debacles. Nicklaus, however, kept his average finish between 6th and 9th over most of his career. That makes it seem like Jack is easily beating Tiger, but if we look at it slightly differently, you’ll notice something illuminating.
This shows us how each golfer finished, on average, over his last eight majors at any one time. This lets us focus on how well Jack and Tiger were doing at the time, rather than letting early competitions when they were inexperienced weigh them down. Nicklaus hit his stride in 1970, after about 40 majors. Over the next decade, he only finished out of the top 10 five times (‘70 US Open, ‘72 PGA, ‘76 US Open, ’78 and ’79 PGA). In fact, in that decade, his worst finish in the British Open was 5th (’71).
And to look at the graph, Tiger is just settling into that same sort of zone. Since 2005, he’s won six majors (’05 Masters and British Open, ’06 British Open and PGS, ’07 PGA, and ’08 US Open), and finished second five more times. Assuming he has a similar career path to Nicklaus – and it certainly looks like he will – he should have five or six more years of consistently finishing in the top five or ten in every major he plays.
And yet I don’t think he’s going to catch the Golden Bear. In fact, I think he may not ever win another major again.
Based on the data I’ve just finished bombarding you with, that sounds absolutely crazy, right? Sure, but there’s one thing those graphs can’t quite account for: Tiger’s knee.
Tiger famously played (and won!) the 2008 US Open on a torn ACL, after which he had major reconstructive surgery that ended his season. While rehabbing his knee, he also tore his Achilles tendon, further complicating the issue. Since that time, he’s played in four majors, won none of them, and only seriously contended in one of them, in which he lost a playoff to Y. E. Yang. Sound like the Tiger you remember?
We live in a world in which football and basketball stars recover from ACL surgeries and come back as good as ever. We accept that an ACL tear puts you out for a season, but that you won’t be any worse for the wear the next year. I think that skews our perception of the injury and of the average person’s ability to recover from it. It’s one thing for an NFL or NBA player to recover from knee surgery. After all, they keep themselves in fantastic shape and are among the most fit people on the planet.
It’s something else entirely for a golfer. Think about your average PGA player’s physique. No one is confusing Fuzzy Zoeller or Retief Goosen for Dwight Howard.
Tiger certainly keeps himself in better shape than Zoeller or Goosen, but he’s going to need some time to bounce back from knee surgery. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if his knee takes a lot of the edge off his game. He’s spent his whole life perfecting his stroke a certain way. Now that his knee responds differently, he could end up having to learn the game all over again.
Mind you, these crazy predictions are just that: crazy. Tiger could prove me wrong as soon as this Sunday by putting on a fifth green jacket. He could also fall off the pace over the next few days and again finish out of contention. If he does, a lot of analysts are going to wonder if the media attention on his marital problems was the cause.
Somehow, I doubt that will be the best explanation. Pro athletes can tune those sorts of distractions out. They make a career out of it. They can’t tune out their body, though. You can focus and drown out a media spectacle.
Can’t do that to a knee.
Impressive. I especially like the graph for average finish; Tiger has never been better than Jack there. In most sports leagues, margin of victory predicts future results better than win %. If true in golf, Woods will finish behind Nicklaus, even if he’s slightly ahead when age-adjusted.
Jack framed Tiger. Thats what I think.
This is the most silly thing I have ever seen. Tiger will easily surpass Jack’s record. He only has five to go to and in golf terms he is just hitting his prime years. Your analysis is flawed in that the field of competition is a lot larger now than it was in Jack’s time. That’s not to take anything away from Jack but as far as era’s go you are comparing apples to oranges. Just remember your mea culpa post in three years when he surpasses the record.
All good points, GThomas. I worry that you missed my central argument, though: as good as Tiger has been (and he’s been nothing short of incredible), he’s trying to come back from a major, major knee injury. ACL tears aren’t the sort of thing that people just bounce back from, even ridiculously fit people like in the NBA and NFL. If Tiger can round back into form and win those next five majors, trust me, I’ll be the first in line to congratulate him and eat my words.
Sam, I totally agree with you that Tiger Woods will never win another Major tournament but for different reasons. Watch him when he plays the Majors. He doesn’t enjoy the game and completely stresses out over bad shots. This is a “game” folks and we don’t always get the shot or result we want! Add to that, many other good golfers breathing down his back continuously and not always the same ones so the stress level is not there for the others. He is “expected” to win, they are not! Another reason, his lack of decent morals and his following of a Cult religion. Add these things up and it spells the demise of a great golfer. Nicklaus smiled and played the game for what it was, a “GAME”!
Sam, either you’re a hater or just plain in denial about how good this guy really is. When you’re dealing with this level of greatness, it makes it even more difficult to predict what the future holds for a guy of this caliber. And you’ve completely left out one huge element; Nicklaus had far less competition than Woods – far less. You’ll have a tough time finding people to argue that point. Does this put any more holes in your theory or make your graphs appear less accurate? Perhaps not. But what Woods has done in just the last couple of days makes me a believer that he can do anything when it comes to the game of golf. Furthermore, it reinforces my belief that when it’s time for him to join the Senior Tour, he’ll not only have won more majors than Nicklaus, but also been anointed as the greatest golfer to have ever played the game. Jack won his last major at 46. Tiger will be better then most golfers half his age when he reaches that mark. The knee is a concern, no doubt. But as we get on in our years, medical science only improves. Good article though. It will certainly invite some debate; I mean I sure fell for it.
Scott / So. California
Great points, Scott. I can’t argue that Tiger had tougher competition than Nicklaus did, and he’s certainly impressed so far. I’m just saying that he’s not going to be 2000 Tiger again. He’s not going to be the prohibitive favorite in every event he enters like he used to be.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe he’s as superhuman as he thought and he has no trouble recovering from that knee surgery. If that’s the case, I’m happy to eat my words. But I think it’s more likely that he doesn’t cruise to the record quite like we thought he would.
Nicklaus had greater competition not less and it isn’t difficult at all to find people who agree. Most tournaments come down to 5 or 6 people still in contention with 9 holes to play. That is no different now than it was 40 and 50 years ago. So with 9 holes to play many of Woods’ competitors have been players with zero major victories and little expectation of being in contention again. In the very least, most of them know they won’t compete again consistently. When Nicklaus’ field was widdled down to 5 or 6 remaining competitors they often included multiple major winners who expected to have another chance to win again very soon. That makes them more confident and the pressure is diminished because they believe they will get another to win. In Woods’ era, many of them correctly believe it is their one and only chance.
In addition, Nicklaus never had fans throw his ball back into play as has happened with Woods’ fans at critical times in two separate PGA championships and several other tournaments. One is permitted 5 minutes to look for a golfball. At the WGC in Firestone a few years ago they basically halted the tournament for better than 20 minutes because Woods hit his ball on the roof of the clubhouse and they couldn’t find it. Too damn bad. It doesn’t matter where the ball goes or why you can’t find it, 5 minutes is the allotted time. Golf has a lot of stupid rules but that isn’t one of them. And to permit somebody to withdraw a Woods gofball from his pocket and claim to have picked it up from the roof is ludicrous. The Met Life blimp had a camera on the roof the entire time, why didn’t they show us the man on the roof? Woods is a great golfer, one of the best to be sure but he’s a terrible sportsman. He knows better than to allow such favouritism.
I can tear apart your argument – you failed on your crucial points.
Tiger’s athleticism matches or exceeds that of your average NBA or NFL player.
Tiger has already rebuilt his game from the ground up two or three times in his career, so the ACL should not stop him.
Your charts seem to make a case that he will catch up or pass Nicklaus.
Only question for me is will he be able to do what Nicklaus said a long time ago: pass the combined total of Nicklaus and Palmer?
He’s done well in the first two rounds of the Masters coming back after five months off, under all the scumbag media scrutiny in the world over his personal life scandal.
Why is it scumbag media? If anyone is a scumbag it’s Tiger. I don’t disavow his athletic greatness, but that doesn’t excuse his affairs. Or are you one of those who thinks that celebrity, whether TV, movie, or sports, means a free pass?
If you look at Nicklaus’s total record in the majors (e.g. 19 second place finishes), it isn’t worth making a comparison!
My exact sentiments! 37 1st or 2nd place finishes in the majors. No way Tiger Woods ever comes close to Nicklaus’s records. I personally think Nicklaus had just as tough a competition as Woods has had. It simply shows you how great Jack was. Woods will never make it! Ruth’s record would have never been compromised without steroids and a 162 game schedule. No one will ever come close to Dimaggio’s 56 consecutive game hitting streak. Notice also that Woods plays in the “Majors” but very few of the other tournaments. He’s strictly a “trophy” hunter. He constantly snubs his fans. Add to that the personality of a wet mop and any comparison of him and Nicklaus is a bad joke!
The only record Tiger will surpass Jack N. – how many differnt blonde holes Tiger dipped his putter into ! LOL !
Jack is the Man, Tiger will never be.
Personally, I think Jack’s competition was way, way better than Tigers. Lee Trevino, Miller, Weiskopf, Tom Watson, Gary Player, Palmer, Casper, Floyd – all multiple majors winners and all Hall of Fame players. Tiger’s epic battles came against people like Bob May, Rocco Mediate & Chris DeMarco – all fine players, but not Trevino’s, etc. Mickelson is really the only player of this time to compare with the others named, and he has a talent for throwing away more majors than he’s won…
Another thing that has changed is equipment – mainly the ball. In 1965, when Jack shot 63 at Augusta, he reached #15 with driver / sand wedge. Then, the driver head was persimmon and shaft was steel – and the ball was balata. Put today’s golf balls on titanium clubs and scientifically tuned graphite shafts…
Tiger has the superior short game. He pitches and chips at a level Jack could not dream about. Jack, however is the better driver, iron player and strategist. I’d say they putt equally – with Jack deadly on the 5-10 footers that usually mean championships, and Tiger holing more long range putts than anyone in golf history. Greens are typically faster now – (leave out 1974 Winged Foot and 1973 Oakmont), so Tiger’s accomplishments with the flat stick are incredible.
There is one guy we leave out of this discussion and that is Bob Jones. He never turned pro, but you could say that for a 7-10 year period, his advantage over his competitors was larger than either Jack’s or Tigers.
Yes don’t forget Jones he was just as good as either.