Phoenix Suns’ Key to Playoff Success: Jason Richardson’s FG%?

The Phoenix Suns might be the most inexplicable team in the NBA this year.

They started the season on a 14-3 streak, then spent two months festering in an 11-18 slump, and since then have gone a stellar 24-6. The recent uptick has them fighting for the second seed in the Western Conference bloodbath, and they’ve shown that their ceiling is certainly high enough for a deep playoff run.

The recent success is most often tied to Amare Stoudemire’s recent rebirth as a max contract player, or Robin Lopez’s emergence as a physical presence in the post. But considering neither of those were really happening during the Suns’ early season run, who is the constant? What’s been the same in the Suns’ periods of success, and will be essential in the postseason?

Surprise! More than anything else, it’s Jason Richardson’s field goal percentage.

To find it out, I ran a correlation test on the standard individual statistics of every player on the Phoenix roster, to see how closely they parallel the team’s point differential for each game of the season (point differential means margin of victory; a +20 point differential means a 20-point win, a -5 means a 5-point loss). The results, might I say, were wildly unexpected.

Four of the top five parallels involve Richardson—his field goal percentage (with a very compelling .436 correlation coefficient), his three-point percentage, his scoring, and his number of field goals made. What this means is that when J-Rich is playing well, at least in these categories, the Suns tend to win—and win by more the better he plays.

It’s always a mistake in statistics, however, to assume that a correlation is a cause, and this is no exception. We can’t say that Richardson’s performance actually caused the better outcomes in each contest, but we do know that when the team had a big game this season, J-Rich probably had a big game too—and when they had a down game, Richardson was likely down too. Draw your own conclusions.

I would have guessed that Stoudemire’s points and Steve Nash’s assists would top the list. And while Nash’s dimes ranked tenth on the list, Stoudemire’s scoring isn’t to be found. That means is that the Suns aren’t necessarily more likely to win when he scores more points, or lose when he scores fewer. There are also innumerable other variables at play here, such as how long the starters play in blowouts, but the numbers are still surprising.

Instead, the one common theme that weaves its way through this list is efficiency. Much more important than Richardson’s point total is his shooting percentage(s), and Leandro Barbosa’s off-the-bench shooting efficiency (3rd on the list) far outweighs his scoring (19th). And while Stoudemire’s point total doesn’t correlate directly with the point differential, his shooting percentage does (11th).

Perhaps my favorite result was finding that the team tends to win when Barbosa fouls more (or, conversely, that Barbosa fouls more when the team plays better). Perhaps the zippy Brazilian has a more positive impact on the team when he’s being aggressive. Or it could be that his mere presence on the floor is a boost—he’s the only player whose minutes on the floor are a strong enough parallel to winning that it made the list. Is it because he makes the team that much better, or is it that he just happened to be injured (and thus off the floor) during the team’s abysmal stretch in December? Again, your call.

I did remove a few results to make the list more relevant. For instance, there were some very strong correlations between big Suns wins and the play of Taylor Griffin (remember him? He’s Blake Griffin’s brother)—simply because it’s only in big wins that he sees any floor time. Ditto for Jarron Collins.

So, Jason Richardson has been the constant during this season’s success. You still can’t, and shouldn’t, give him the ball on every play in the playoffs because some numbers tie his individual success to team success in the past.

But I’d make sure to keep him happy.

We all know, however, that it’s not the entire season’s performance that is most relevant to the playoffs, but rather how hot a team is going in to the postseason (or cold, in the Lakers’ case). Out of curiosity, I ran the statistics again, but just for the games while the Suns have been on this league-melting tear since January 28th.

With a small sample size you’re always going to get more extreme results, but these might knock your socks off.

With all of Stoudemire’s scoring lately, there’s actually a strong negative correlation to team performance (-.317). Look: He has scored relatively less in their bigger wins (18 in a 36-point win, 25 in a 38-point win) and his highest-scoring games have come in losses or close wins (41 points in a 3-point loss, 44 in a 10-point win, 37 in a 2-point win). Don’t fret, though, it’s almost definitely because he’s playing fewer minutes in those blowouts—chalk that up Amare’s minutes showing the strongest negative correlation I’ve found (-.644). Amare plays fewer minutes when the Suns win big, because he sits the fourth quarter.

The correlation is also strongly negative for his field goals made (-.383) and attempted (-.488). It’s been nice to see him play so well, and it’s even better when he doesn’t have to.

Also in the negative column? A strong negative correlation between the number of shots Steve Nash takes and the team’s success (-.425). It makes sense. Steve doesn’t have to be a big scorer on this team, and apparently it’s better when he doesn’t push it. The more shots he takes, the poorer the team does.

Instead of Nash and Stoudemire, and with diminished impact of season-long hero Richardson, this list is a who’s-who of the Suns’ bench, led by Lou Amundson.

When Amundson has had big games lately, the Suns have won big. When Goran Dragic is running the offense and Robin Lopez is being aggressive on offense (strong positive correlations for offensive boards and getting to the line), the Suns have been doing well. When Channing Frye has been scoring and Jared Dudley has been shooting efficiently, the Suns have been posting W’s. Like Stoudemire’s negative correlations, this is going to be true because these guys are running the show in garbage time. It means the Suns have been able to put opponents away early, and give these guys good minutes when they’ve already built a healthy lead.

It’s a stark departure from the Mike D’Antoni era, in which he used the bench little and ran shorter rotations. But Alvin Gentry has changed things in Phoenix, and lately it has meant the bench has been the X-factor—Nash and Stoudemire will always do what they do well, but it’s the second string’s performance that correlates strongly to the outcome of games.

This all said, it still doesn’t assemble a cohesive playoff plan for the Suns. Amare is still the go-to in the paint, Nash is going to have the ball in his hands, and Robin Lopez is going to look like a wild, Lord-of-the-Flies version of Carrot Top.

But it’s good to know that when the playoffs roll around, and the Suns are matching up in the second or third round against the Jazz or the Nuggets or (gasp!) the Lakers, that they’ve got some tricks up their sleeve. Jason Richardson has been their wildcard all season long, and lately the bench has made the big difference in games.

Will it be enough to push this Phoenix team into representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals? The talent is there, and the ceiling is certainly high enough.

But you never know with the Suns.