NBA Playoffs Preview: Suns vs. Trail Blazers

Phoenix Suns (54-28) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (50-32)

Regular season series: Portland wins 2-1

At first glance, these two teams couldn’t be less alike. Portland plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, while Phoenix plays at nearly the fastest (second only to Golden State). Portland has been crippled with injuries this year, missing over 300 games, while Phoenix has cruised through the season largely untouched. And the Suns have been here before, while the Blazers are relative newcomers to the postseason.

It was shaping up to a compelling example of two contrasting styles until Sunday’s Blazers-Lakers game, when Brandon Roy left the game at halftime with a knee injury. It turned out to be a slightly torn meniscus, which would require surgery. Doctors have told him that he can’t injure his knee any worse, and he has said he intends to do his best to play through the pain. But a Portland squad without Roy isn’t nearly the same as one with him. How much of a difference will The Natural’s absence make?

Both teams have been red hot down the stretch (17-4 for Phoenix, 16-5 for Portland), so momentum won’t mean much here. Matchups will. Let’s run through them and see how these two teams will fare against each other. As always, we’ll be using spider graphs (for a primer on spider graphs, start here) to get a sense of each player’s performance.

Both starting point guards have been around for a long time. Steve Nash is 36 and is in his 13^th season, while Andre Miller is 34 and in his 10^th. They can both get the job done on offense, and both struggle on defense. Nash uses his speed and court vision to do his damage. Miller is crafty and has a seemingly endless number of ways to get to the hoop. Both will be crucial to their team’s success. But while Miller is an important cog in the Blazers’ offense, Nash is the Suns’ offense. Without him, the machine bogs down. Besides, it’s hard to argue with a two-time MVP. Advantage: Suns.

I don’t know if I can include a large enough asterisk here. Brandon Roy is going to try to play on his knee. He’s been in this situation before (he had meniscus surgery in college), so he knows better than anyone what he is capable of when injured. If he can play, then this is no contest. Jason Richardson is a capable player, but he’s no Roy. His graph is nearly totally surrounded. But that’s assuming Roy plays at 100%. If he can even only manage 80%, Portland still takes this. If it’s lower than that, or if he doesn’t end up playing, Portland has to go with either Rudy Fernandez or Martell Webster, who are streaky at best. Take a look and see for yourself.

These graphs use per 36 numbers so we can get an idea of how each of them would perform as a starter. Both Webster and Fernandez are capable backups, certainly. But starters? You’d better believe Portland fans are praying that Roy can play. Advantage: Trail Blazers*.

You’ve heard of Grant Hill, assuming you followed basketball in the ‘90s and drank Sprite. He’s much older now, but considering how little he played in the middle of his career, he’s not as far gone as you might think. Nicolas Batum, meanwhile, is in just his second season. Hill could probably teach him a thing or two about sneaky veteran moves. Batum, however, could teach Hill a thing or two about tenacious defense. The Frenchman is a one-man wrecking crew on defense this year, and it’s not as though his offense suffers for it. This is a close one, but I feel like youth makes the difference here. Advantage: Trail Blazers.

Amare Stoudemire has been setting the league on fire since the All-Star break. He can score at will, and seems especially fond of dunking the ball on his opponent’s head. (Just ask poor Kosta Koufos.) But as good as he’s been, LaMarcus Aldridge hasn’t been too far behind. He’s not putting up the incredible offensive numbers that Stoudemire has, but he’s more than held his own. Better still, he’s shown he can step up and be the primary guy on offense since Roy’s latest injury. Now, that doesn’t mean I think he’s a better player than STAT, but I do think this isn’t quite the mismatch people are making it out to be. It should be a great battle down in the post. Advantage: Suns.

One of these centers is a perimeter shooter who loves to take threes. One of them loves to play down low and is a defensive menace. I’ll let you guess which is which.

Channing Frye has enjoyed a renaissance in Phoenix, where his ability to space the floor is not only appreciated, but needed. Marcus Camby has done just as well in Portland, where low post defense is prized. With Phoenix being such a deadly jump-shooting team, Camby’s shot-blocking ability probably won’t be as valuable, but with such a soft defense down low, he could have a chance to do some serious damage. And if you think he’s too old to do that at 36, just ask Oklahoma City, who watched him put up a 30/13 on them a few nights ago. Advantage: Trail Blazers.

Obviously, this matchup depends on Roy’s status. If Roy plays, Rudy Fernandez is the sixth man; if he doesn’t, Martell Webster probably is. As dynamic as both of those players are, Dudley can easily hold his own here. He’s just as quick as Fernandez, scores just as much, but look at that field goal percentage. The Suns aren’t a good team to shoot erratically against. A miss, a rebound, a layup, and you’re left to scratch your head and figure out what just happened. Advantage: Suns.

So there you have it. Six positions, and three wins for each team, depending on Roy’s availability. If Roy doesn’t play, it shifts to 4-2 for the Suns. Of course, the Blazers can win in Phoenix without Roy, as they proved in February. But there’s a big difference between the regular season and the playoffs. Can Portland turn it up a notch? If so, I like them in seven. If not, and Roy doesn’t play, I like Phoenix in five.

(UPDATE: Roy will undergo surgery on his knee now in hopes that his team will be able to advance and he can contribute in later rounds. And you know what? I’m still going with optimism here.)

Prediction: Trail Blazers in seven.