NBA Playoffs Preview: Nuggets vs. Jazz

Denver Nuggets (53-29) vs. Utah Jazz (53-29)

Regular season series: Denver wins 3-1

Denver has historically been one of the toughest places to grab a win on the road in the NBA. The arena is a full mile above sea level, and the elevation find players gasping for breath much more quickly than they would be at home. It’s a powerful home court advantage that gives them a huge edge over 28 teams in the league.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, the Utah Jazz are the only team that isn’t fazed by the elevation. They play at altitude, too, so they’ll have little trouble adjusting to the thin air. And both teams play tough, physical ball, so there won’t be much of an adjustment period there. Basically, these are two teams built the same way that play the same way. It ought to be a brutal, no-holds-barred kind of series.

So rather than breaking down recent performances or their momentum, let’s take a look at how the matchups stack up for each team. After all, these guys are going to see each other seven times over the next two weeks. How they match up is going to make all the difference in this series. As always, we’ll use spider graphs (for a primer on spider graphs, start here) to evaluate each player’s performance.

This series features two of the premier point guards in the league. Chauncey Billups has been to the playoffs before. In fact, he’s been to the conference finals for the last seven consecutive seasons. He knows how to get it done in the postseason. But one look at his spider graph shows that he gets it done in relatively modest fashion. Deron Williams, however, puts up slightly gaudier numbers. More importantly, that spike you see for assists suggests that not only can he take care of business, but that he helps his teammates score, too. Score one for Utah. Advantage: Jazz.

Neither of these two are particularly household names. Arron Afflalo is a second-year player putting up solid numbers. Wes Matthews does the same thing as an undrafted rookie. Neither of these guys are lighting up the scoreboard particularly, but that’s not what they’re called upon to do. They shoot efficiently and play a little defense. Good enough. Their stats are almost identical, but I’m going to give the slightest of edges to Denver here, if only because Afflalo has played in pressure situations more than Matthews has. Advantage: Nuggets.

This one shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Carmelo Anthony can do it all. He scores, he’s quick off the dribble, he rebounds, and this year, he even plays a little defense. The man is an MVP candidate just about every year. C.J. Miles? He’s bounced back and forth between the NBA and the D-League. Nothing against the D-League (I’m on record as saying the D-League is the best-kept secret in sports), but there’s a big difference between a good D-Leaguer and an MVP candidate. Melo’s graph completely swallows Miles’ with room to spare. Easy call here. Advantage: Nuggets.

This is an intriguing matchup, if only because it’s possible that we don’t see either of these players. Kenyon Martin has been out of the lineup for a few weeks. While he’s back now, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be at full strength or not. Carlos Boozer sat out of Utah’s finale against the Suns with a strained oblique (rib). He plans to play against Denver, but like Martin, it’s unclear how healthy he’ll be. Assuming both of them play, Boozer clearly gets the nod. If neither of them play, Paul Millsap can fill in the gaps much better than Johan Petro can. Either way, this matchup goes to Utah. Advantage: Jazz.

The center matchup gives us two contrasting styles. Nene is a traditional, low post kind of guy that can ram the ball down your throat. Mehmet Okur is a stretch 5 who spreads the floor and loves to shoot the three. He does just fine on defense, but he’s more of a perimeter player than a paint patroller. Okur can do some damage when he’s on, but when defensive intensity is ratcheted up in the playoffs, interior defense is at a premium. So while Memo is a solid player, I’ll take the guy who can anchor the middle and protect the rim. Advantage: Nuggets.

This could be a mismatch, if Andrei Kirilenko plays. Like Boozer, he was held out of the season finale with a calf injury. He says he’s at 90% and will be ready for the playoffs, but as we haven’t seen him in a few weeks, he’s still a bit of a question mark here. His graph shows just how valuable he’s been to Utah this year. He dwarfs J.R. Smith, and Smith is no slacker on the court. The big red flag to me is Smith’s FG%. He’s not shy about taking threes when he sees them, and they tend not to go in. So if Kirilenko plays, I like the Jazz here. If not, I’m not quite as bullish on Kyle Korver. Advantage: Jazz.

So there you have it. These two teams are about as equally matched as you could hope for in a first-round series. Granted, Utah’s matchup advantages tend to be larger than Denver’s. Normally, that would be enough to sway me toward the Jazz, but since Boozer and Kirilenko are coming off of injuries, that makes me rethink things. I expect to see them trade punches back and forth in seven razor-thin games. And because I see it going all seven, I have to think the team with home court in Game 7 has the edge. Even if it’s just by a little.

Prediction: Denver in seven.