NBA Playoffs Preview: Mavericks vs. Spurs

Dallas Mavericks (55-27) vs. San Antonio Spurs (50-32)

Regular season series: Dallas wins 3-1

Dallas and San Antonio square off in a series featuring two teams that know each other extremely well. Not only are they divisional rivals, but they have faced each other several times in the playoffs, including last year’s 3-6 series, when Dallas won in just five games. Both teams are tough, physical, and experienced. The season finale notwithstanding, Dallas has struggled down the stretch, while San Antonio was red hot, knocking off virtually every power team in the association.

Yet momentum isn’t nearly as important as you would think in the playoffs. Matchups are crucial, as the 2009 Cavaliers will be happy to tell you. So let’s take a look at the matchups we’ll see in this series. We’ll use spider graphs (for a primer on spider graphs, start here) to break down the matchups at each position, plus the sixth man position to get a look at the bench.

This point guard matchup is dynamite. Jason Kidd has established himself as one of the best point guards in the game, and perhaps of all time. (Not high on the list, but at least on it.) Tony Parker is no slouch himself, piloting several Spurs teams to championships several years ago. Parker is the quicker of the two (being younger), but interestingly enough, Kidd rates much higher in the speed oriented categories. Parker will probably score more and be more accurate from the field, but Kidd has done much more in more ways this year. Advantage: Mavericks.

Shooting guard is another position with two big time names. Caron Butler was a midseason pickup for the Mavs, and a darned good one at that. He’s put up some impressive numbers and offered some help on defense, too. Manu Ginobili, on the other hand, has been with the Spurs more or less since the dawn of time. He makes his living finding creative and crafty ways to get to the hoop. Try as you might, there’s usually not a good way to stop Manu, short of an injury (which has slowed him up over the last two seasons, actually). Case in point: his graph nearly swallows Butler’s. Advantage: Spurs.

As though we didn’t have enough big names, we see two more at the small forward slot. Here, both teams go with aging stars who were excellent five years ago. Exhibit A is Richard Jefferson, an offseason pickup who is a step slower than the Spurs were hoping. That’s not to say he isn’t effective, though. He still puts up solid numbers and is a serviceable third of fourth option. Shawn Marion fills essentially the same role for Dallas, with one difference: he plays excellent defense. The numbers bear that out, as he easily outdistances Jefferson on the left side of the graph. Can’t argue with that. Advantage: Mavericks.

You’ve probably heard of the guys playing power forward in this series. Dirk Nowitzki? Oh, he just won the 2007 MVP. He’s only one of the most potent offensive players of his generation. See that huge spike at the top of his graph? The dude can score in droves. And Tim Duncan? Oh, he’s just one of the best players in the history of the NBA. He’s just the lynchpin of four title teams. He’s just one of the premier defenders in the association. See that huge bulge on the bottom left? Defense. Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships. Advantage: Spurs.

The center spot is about the only position without two marquee names. When the rest of the roster is that loaded, they don’t really need to be. Neither Erick Dampier nor Antonio McDyess are there to provide offense. Their job is to lock down the middle and keep teams honest by playing a little defense.  Each of those words is key. You can tell they just play defense by the way the graphs are clustered around the lower left. And you can tell it’s little because…well, you know. Dampier plays a bit more than McDyess, so Dallas gets the edge here. Advantage: Mavericks.

Manu Ginobili has traditionally been the Spurs’ sixth man, but with his transition to a starting role, George Hill has filled in the gap. As his graph shows, Hill is quick, accurate, and can score in bunches. That said, Jason Terry can do the same thing, only better, and he’s been doing it longer. We ought to see these two matched up head to head quite a bit, which you can’t always say with sixth men. Hill is a capable player, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Terry rough him up. Advantage: Mavericks.

Most of these matchups are pretty close. Unlike other series, we don’t see any real mismatches, which means we’re likely to see a closely played, hard-fought series. When it’s as close as this, home court tends to make the difference. And with Dallas holding home court advantage, I see this tilting their way. Barely.

Prediction: Mavericks in seven.