Orlando Magic (59-23) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (44-38)
Regular season series: Magic, 3-1
So, on one hand we’ve got a seriously overachieving team. Nobody picked the Charlotte Bobcats to win 44 games and show up here as the East’s 7 seed.
And on the other hand we’ve got the Orlando Magic, who dominated the Eastern Conference playoffs last year and have exactly matched last year’s record this year.
As part of How To Watch Sports’s ongoing series covering the playoff matchups, we’ll take a look at how these wildly opposite teams stack up player-by-player. If you’re new to Spider Graphs, learn about them here.
Let’s go.
Just from the names, you’d immediately hand the advantage to Jameer Nelson—but the Spider Graphs make it much more interesting. Nelson is not the same as he was last year; his scoring is down, which can be attributed to playing next to Vince Carter, but his field goal percentage is also down from last year’s All-Star campaign. Meanwhile, Raymond Felton has quietly put together a solid all-around season for the Bobs. Jameer has the name recognition, Raymond has the numbers. Advantage: Even.
Vince Carter has had a good season as well, but here’s another guy getting upstaged by his Charlotte counterpart. Stephen Jackson has been unreal since being traded by the Golden State Warriors in November. Carter can still put the ball in the bucket, and adds some veteran experience, but let’s be honest—Captain Jack’s graph swallows his. Advantage: Bobcats.
Matt Barnes has added some scrap and toughness in a position that used to be filled by Hedo Turkoglu. But that’s all I’m going to say about him—this paragraph is about Gerald Wallace. Crash may have fallen short of his goal of being the league’s rebound champ this year (that honor goes to Dwight Howard, who we’ll see shortly), but that can’t detract from the fantastic year he’s had. It’s Jackson and Wallace that have brought this team to the playoffs. Advantage: Bobcats.
Now things get a little closer. Rashard Lewis has always been an anomaly as a three-point shooting power forward—I bet you didn’t know he’s made the seventh-most treys in the history of the NBA. His opponent here is the dependable Boris Diaw, whose graph is as well-rounded as he is. As much as I like Diaw, and despite his slight advantage on the graph, I have to give the edge to the player who can hurt you most. Advantage: Magic.
Okay. Um… soo… wow. Yeah. Okay. Dwight Howard leads the league in three major statistical categories—blocks, rebounds, and field goal percentage—which gives him three maxed-out axes on his Spider Graph. Poor Theo Ratliff—he’s only appeared in 27 games this year, and he’ll have both hands full with Superman (his graph looks especially small because of his limited minutes per game). It’s true that the Bobcats took the advantage in the first three matchups we looked at—but this matchup will likely be several times more important than all of those put together. Advantage: Magic.
The Magic could just as easily have J.J. Redick here, or even Jason Williams. The Magic’s bench is loaded with role players, and they’re all solid. The Bobcats, instead, have Tyson Chandler and Nazr Mohammed—both of whom have also been the starting center at one point this season. While the Magic’s depth beats that of the ‘Cats, the matchup of these particular sixth men isn’t exactly even. Advantage: Bobcats.
Charlotte has had an unbelievable year, putting together their best record in franchise history, and now their first playoff appearance. The pairing of Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace has made this a motivated, scrappy, rather unexpected contender.
But take a look at the graphs again. Where the Bobcats have the advantage, it’s barely—and where the Magic have the advantage, it’s enormous (specifically, it’s 6’11″, 265 pounds).
The fact that the Magic can, and do, run their offense through Dwight Howard makes them viciously potent. If it seems like everyone on the team shows up rather mediocre in their graphs, it’s because they spread the ball so well—with Howard in the middle they can put four guys on the perimeter to shoot threes. They shot 100 more deep balls than any other team in the league, and they shoot them rather well.
Vince Carter’s stats would be beefier if he had less talent around him. So would Jameer Nelson’s. So would Rashard Lewis’s. This is a team loaded with talent, and that’s why they have the second-best record in the league.
And that’s why this won’t be a close series.
Prediction: Magic in four.
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