Los Angeles Lakers (58-24) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (50-32)
Regular season series: Los Angeles wins 3-1
The Thunder have been the darlings of the 2009-10 season, shocking the league en route to a 50-win season, vastly improving on their 23-59 debacle from last year. Kevin Durant made the leap from “promising young player” to “MVP contender” in just one season. Meanwhile, the Lakers went from consensus title favorite to a near lock for a first-round upset after the All-Star break. Sloppy play and poor execution have seen LA drop more than a few games they should have dominated.
So I don’t see this series lasting too long. Five games, six at the most. Book it for the champs.
Wait, what?
Of all the teams the Lakers could have seen in the first round, you’d better believe they’re relieved to see the Thunder. Both the Spurs and the Trail Blazers have been sizzling down the stretch. Oklahoma City? Not so much. Their commitment to defense has faltered lately, giving opponents a chance to pressure and squeeze out wins.
But momentum means little in the postseason. It all comes down to matchups. So let’s take a look using spider graphs (for a primer on spider graphs, start here). We’ll consider the matchups at each position, as well as the sixth man spot.
At the point guard, there’s absolutely no contest. It’s an open secret that Derek Fisher is one of the worst players with a starting job in the NBA. Nothing against him as a person, and he’s certainly had a fine career, but he’s been atrocious this year. Westbrook, on the other hand, is enjoying a breakout season. His graph completely surrounds Fisher’s, which is a bad sign for Laker fans. Fisher can expect to be burned early and often by Westbrook. LA might consider giving Jordan Farmar extended time on the court to minimize the damage. Advantage: Thunder.
Unless you’re relatively new to this “NBA” thing, you’ve probably heard that the Lakers have a pretty good shooting guard named Kobe Bryant. His spider graph certainly tells the same story. His game is primarily based on scoring at this stage in his career. He’s not going to pick up many assists or rebounds, but he doesn’t really need to. Thabo Sefolosha doesn’t compare, but he doesn’t play the same role for the Thunder. His specialty is defense, and he’s going to be asked to lock down Bryant as much as is possible. As you can see, he’s going to have his hands full. Advantage: Lakers.
As big of an advantage as the Lakers have at shooting guard, the Thunder have at the small forward. Kevin Durant made a run at the MVP this year, and he might have won it if LeBron James weren’t the freak of athleticism that he is. Durant scores in droves, but he does alright picking up rebounds, blocks, and steals, too. He’s going to be called upon again and again to shoulder the offensive burden for his team. His counterpart, Ron Artest, will not. Like Sefolosha, he’s here primarily to play defense. And like Sefolosha, he’s going to have his hands full doing it. Advantage: Thunder.
Jeff Green is the third member of the Thunder’s “Big Three”, and he’s probably the one you’ve heard the least about. He’s good, certainly. He’s very good, in fact. He has a pretty sizeable spider graph, with the only real weakness being assists, which power forwards aren’t usually expected to rack up. You’d think he would be able to hold his own, except that he’s going up against Pau Gasol, one of the best players in the league. Gasol’s graph dwarfs Green’s. Expect the Lakers to take it inside early and often against Green. It could get ugly. Advantage: Lakers.
While he’s missed significant time due to injury, Andrew Bynum is targeting a return for the playoffs. I’ll go ahead and list him here just in case. (If he ends up not playing, Gasol slides to center and Lamar Odom moves to power forward.) Bynum may have a tough time rounding back into form, but fortunately for him, he’s not going to be particularly challenged. Nenad Krstic is good, but hardly great. Again, we see a Laker graph completely surrounding a Thunder graph. Oklahoma City has some advantages, but this certainly isn’t one of them. Gotta take the Lakers here. Advantage: Lakers.
For the sixth man spot, I went with the bench player who saw the most time during the season. For the Lakers, that’s Lamar Odom. Odom is capable enough to start on nearly any team, and has started nearly half the season for LA. For the Thunder, it’s rookie James Harden, who has been a valuable spark off the bench. Harden can fire up the crowd and get the team moving. Unfortunately, so can Odom, and he does it about twice as well. Odom’s graph completely surrounds Harden’s. The two won’t see much time covering each other, since they play different positions, but using them as a comparison of the two benches is apt. Advantage: Lakers.
So LA has the advantage at four of our six positions. But aren’t two of those (shooting guard and small forward) essentially defensive specialists versus superstars? Shouldn’t we take that into consideration? After all, if Kobe is limited more than Durant, that could swing the series. To evaluate this, I put together a spider graph showing how well Kobe and Durant played in games against each other, and specifically when they were matched against Sefolosha and Artest, respectively.
As we can see, both held up fairly well. They both produced on offense, and held their own on defense. But Kobe performed a little better than Durant did. And as good as Durant is, I think Kobe has proven he has a little something extra in the playoffs. Based on this, I give the Lakers the slight edge in the superstar department, which leaves us to evaluate the Lakers’ supporting cast against the Thunder’s.
And as compelling a story as “young vs. old” or “Durant vs. Kobe” is, I just don’t see it lasting any longer than five games.
Prediction: Lakers in five.
Here’s hoping (but not believing) you’re wrong. :)