NBA Playoffs Preview: Hawks vs. Bucks

Atlanta Hawks (53-29) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (46-36)
Regular season series: Hawks, 2-1

So, did it work out for Brandon Jennings to go overseas instead of playing NCAA ball?

Who cares. The Milwaukee Bucks are good this year, and it’s half due to his breath-of-fresh-air style. The other half comes from a breakout season from former #1 pick Andrew Bogut.

The Atlanta Hawks’ story is much less dramatic. They were good last year, and they’re better this year—Josh Smith is playing lights-out, they’ve added Jamal Crawford to the bench, and Joe Johnson is Joe Johnson.

We’re going to breakdown these two teams, player-by-player. Our analytical tool of choice is Spider Graphs, which gives us a quick-glance understanding of a player’s style and statistical contribution per game. Learn more about them here.

And, we’re off.

Here are two players coming from completely different directions. Mike Bibby is a twelfth-year veteran who’s the steadying hand on this talented Hawks team. Brandon Jennings is the hotshot rookie who just might make the Bucks relevant for a few years. Jennings’s big weakness is his percentage shooting the rock, but he’s still shown an ability to take over games. This is a tough pick, but I give the edge to the player who means the most to his team. Advantage: Bucks.

John Salmons has been a great mid-season pickup for the Bucks, providing some solid scoring with Michael Redd out. Unfortunately, he’s matched up against Joe Johnson here, so he’s not going to win the matchup. Joe has been a 20-5-5 player since showing up in Atlanta five years ago, and has been the centerpiece of the Hawks’ return to relevance. Advantage: Hawks.

The small forward spot? Well, it’s probably not going to be what makes or breaks this series. The Hawks have started to run some isolations for Marvin Williams, which opens up some roads for him on offense. Carlos Delfino is a solid defender, but his jump shot can be streaky. Really, this one’s a wash. Advantage: Even.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has a cooler name than Josh Smith—but that’s the only advantage he’s got. Josh Smith is everywhere on defense, and he plays six feet above the rim. He’s shooting better, getting more rebounds, and dishing out more assists than ever before in his career. Mbah a Moute plays great defense, but he’s not going to be able to contain the guy with the very ordinary name. Advantage: Hawks.

Andrew Bogut—I’ll miss you! This is another awful mismatch. Al Horford has turned out an All-Star season in just his third year in the league, and his Spider Graph bears the mark of a real-deal big man. Kurt Thomas’s graph is especially undersized because of his limited minutes behind Bogut—these are per-game stats—but even adjusted it can’t measure up. Horford’s got this. Advantage: Hawks.

Do you know Ersan Ilyasova’s story? He played one season for the Bucks in ’06-’07, went back to Turkey to play for a few years, and he’s back this year. He’s become a bit of a favorite, and has had a solid season. In Atlanta’s color, however, is Jamal Crawford—he’s been a huge spark of the bench for the Hawks, and even garnered some attention for Sixth Man of the Year. Their style is clearly different, but in a sixth man you need that scoring off the bench. Advantage: Hawks.

The Milwaukee Bucks are going to put up a fight in this series. They’re undermanned, they’re missing their star center, but they’re tenacious.

I’ll be watching, if only to see what Brandon Jennings can do in his NBA Playoffs debut. His performance this year faded, like his hair, as the season progressed, but he’s still the same player who dropped 55 points on Golden State. The potential is there. I hate to take about ceiling, so I won’t—because he hasn’t got one.

Nothing will stand in the way, however, of the Atlanta Hawks moving to second round again this year. The advantages are clear in the player-by-player matchups. Even more impressive, however, is their grit—they swept the Boston Celtics in the season series, and eked out wins against Orlando and Cleveland to boot.

In the end, experience wins.

Prediction: Hawks in five.