NBA Playoffs Preview: Celtics vs. Heat

Boston Celtics (50-32) vs. Miami Heat (47-35)
Regular season series: Celtics, 3-0

When Danny Ainge brought Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce together as veterans in Boston, it was with a “win now” attitude.

They did win, then. But it’s gotten a lot harder since.

The Miami Heat won a title a few years back, too, but it seems like a distant memory now. Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem are the only pieces remaining of a team that improbably came back from a 2-0 NBA Finals deficit against the juggernaut Dallas Mavericks.

Both of these teams are in the middle of the pack now (literally, the 4 and 5 seeds), and they’re facing off. We’re going to compare the lineups, player by player, to see who’s got the edge.

Our tool is Spider Graphs—read more about them here.

No contest. Rajon Rondo is one of the top point guards in the NBA, he leads the league in steals, and he’s one of the fastest players you’re going to see. Count on him to carry this Boston team exactly as far as they go. Unfortunately for Miami, the point guard position has had a revolving door on it this season. The starter du jour is Carlos Arroyo, and he’d better be ready to get burned. Advantage: Celtics.

Helloooo, Dwyane Wade! Ray Allen has had a great career, but his age is starting to make him rather ordinary. D-Wade is far from getting old, and he’s going to have his way in this matchup. What Rondo is going to do to Arroyo is exactly what Wade is going to do to Sugar Ray. Chalk up one in the Miami column. Advantage: Heat.

Quentin Richardson had a crazy summer, being swapped around to a handful of different teams, but he’s been a steady starter all season in Miami. He’s had his best season ever from beyond the arc, probably thanks to playing next to D-Wade. His Bostonian counterpart, however, is the league’s newly-minted three-point champion. Paul Pierce’s scoring is down a little this year, but his shooting is better than ever—meaning that he’s passing the torch more than fading away. He’s still got the edge here. Advantage: Celtics.

And here we come to perhaps the most compelling matchup between these two teams. Garnett has the edge in experience and freakish, cartoony intensity—and he’s starting to get his offensive groove back after missing some games because of injuries. Michael Beasley still hasn’t grown up into a legit #2 star on this Miami team, but nonetheless the Heat are 13-6 when he’s scored more than 20 points this season. If one of these players can dominate the other, that might determine the outcome of the series. Advantage: Even.

Both of the centers are having the most efficient offensive seasons of their respective careers. Jermaine O’Neal scores a few more points; Kendrick Perkins takes higher-percentage shots. Both are real-deal defenders and can protect the paint. The Spider Graphs are about equal, and these players should be too in this series. Advantage: Even.

At first blush these graphs look relatively comparable. But a closer look at Rasheed Wallace’s unveils the horrific truth. Here’s a 6’11″ guy who barely shoots 40% from the field and gets fewer rebounds than Rajon Rondo. Udonis Haslem isn’t LeBron James, but he’s still a guy who gives a spark off the bench and averages close to a double-double. Easy call here. Advantage: Heat.

Two for the Celtics, two for the Heat, two even. When the individual player matchups don’t give a clear winner, you look beyond. You look to see if either team has an exceptional coach (not really), if either team has exceptional chemistry (neither really more than the other), and finally, if one team has a star that can take the team on its back.

Yes to that one.

It’s no secret that Dwyane Wade is a superstar. Paul Pierce isn’t at that level anymore; KG hasn’t been there in a while. Rondo is a star, but an inconsistent scorer. He’s scored as many as 30 points in a game this season, but he only averages 13—he’s a pure point, which is great, but doesn’t lend itself as well to carrying a team. Consult Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, and Chris Paul, and ask them each how many rings their heroics have won them.

D-Wade will likely have his way against this aging Boston team, and if he does his team will be in it. These arthritic Celtics do have something left in the tank, but it has felt all season as though an axe is hanging over this team.

My guess is it falls in this series.

Prediction: Heat in six.