NBA Playoffs Preview: Cavaliers vs. Bulls

Cleveland Cavaliers (61-21) vs. Chicago Bulls (41-41)

Regular season series: Even, 2-2

These two teams met less than a week ago in a fierce battle that went down to the final buzzer. A Joakim Noah tip-in made the difference, and the Bulls won a nail-biter by the slimmest of margins, 109-108.

Unfortunately for Chicago, that was with LeBron James, Shaquille O’Neal, and Delonte West sitting on the Cleveland bench.

Do the Bulls have much of a chance against the full-strength version of the league’s #1 team? Well, no. But it sure would be a lame analysis if we ended there, so let’s dig in a bit deeper and see what’s going to be at play in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

We’ll use Spider Graphs to stack up each of the starters, plus one sixth man, against each other to see where the mismatches lie. If you’re unfamiliar with Spider Graphs, start here.

Score the first one to the Bulls. Derrick Rose has picked up more of the scoring load this year with Ben Gordon gone, and he’s the unquestioned leader of this team. He’ll create a matchup problem for Mo Williams, too—Rose will take it to the cup (look at his higher FG%), and Williams isn’t known for his defense. Williams is a jump shooter extraordinaire and a talented scorer in his own right, and he hung 35 on the Bulls last week, but scores less with LeBron James in the lineup (he also has a couple of the league’s best help defenders behind him in LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal). Advantage: Bulls.

The shooting guards are a little less interesting. Anthony Parker isn’t in the lineup to score, get rebounds, or really do much of anything that Spider Graphs measure—his job in the lineup to shut down the other team’s best player (he might get some time guarding Rose). Kirk Hinrich is a spectacular defender as well, and occasionally steps up on offense when needed (consider his 30 points against the Celtics on Tuesday). Advantage: Bulls.

What can I say? LeBron James is the best player in the NBA. Luol Deng is… Luol Deng. LeBron’s graph completely swallows up Deng’s, which is what you get when one player’s statistics completely dominate another’s. Advantage: Cavaliers.

Taj Gibson has been a great addition to the Bulls’ starting lineup this year, after being taken 26th in last year’s draft. He’ll have his hands full with Antawn Jamison, but most noticeable from their Spider Graphs is how different their styles of play are. Gibson plays like a traditional post player (compare the shape of his graph to Joakim Noah’s or Shaq’s below), whereas Jamison does less so (his lower FG% comes from his playing farther from the rim, and the steals reflect his quickness even at 33). When it boils down to it, however, you’d only turn to one of these players with the game on the line. Advantage: Cavaliers.

Shaq is graphed here, but it’s yet to see what his role will be. He hasn’t played a game since February 25th, and he’s only averaged 23 minutes a game all season and has plenty to back him up in 7’3″ Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Joakim Noah is the Bulls’ second-best player, a ferocious rebounder, and is quickly becoming an interior force. This is a classic battle of old vs. young. Advantage: Even.

Brad Miller is a solid backup to Noah, and is going to be important in limiting the Cav’s deep frontcourt (Flip Murray could have been graphed here instead, but Miller plays a few more minutes). The Cavs have Delonte West running the backcourt of a second-string team that could have made the playoffs on their own. West has again and again proved to be the X-factor (he’s third on the squad in +/-), and he has the edge here. Advantage: Cavaliers.

In individual matchups, the Bulls don’t actually fare too poorly. If you give Noah the edge over Shaq—which is a popular pick—then we go 3-3 in our graphs here.

That said, a team is anything but just a handful of players. This is a Cavs team that has jelled much more than your average squad, and that plays lights-out Mike Brown defense. If they stay on the ball defensively and run good offensive sets well, they’re unbeatable.

And now I’ve gone long enough pretending that LeBron James isn’t the most dominant player in the league. He’s taken his team to the Finals without a strong supporting cast before. And now that he’s got one? There are very few things that can get in the Cavaliers’ way.

Prediction: Cavaliers in four.