By the Numbers: In the NBA Playoffs, It’s No Contest In the East

For the Cavs, it feels like the playoffs haven't even started yet.

We’re just over a week into the NBA playoffs now, and what a week it’s been. We’ve had dramatic storylines, ranging from Paul Pierce’s buzzer beater to Russell Westbrook’s dunk on Lamar Odom to Brandon Roy’s dramatic return. Every series has been exciting in its own way, but it’s hard to deny that the most compelling stories have been in the Western Conference. Western Conference underdogs (Utah, Portland, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City) have combined for 10 wins out of 16 games played. By contrast, their Eastern Conference brethren (Miami, Milwaukee, Charlotte, and Chicago) have won just 3 out of 14 games.

So how do we account for this kind of disparity? After all, the East series are currently sitting at 3-1, 3-0, 2-1, and 3-1, while the West series are 2-2, 3-1, 2-2, and 3-1. Why so many blowouts on one side and tight contests or upsets on the other?

The answer is pretty simple, when you think about it: the teams in the East aren’t as good as the teams in the West.

Now, before Cleveland and Orlando fans start screaming at their monitors, let me clarify that statement. I don’t think that the top teams in the East are worse than the top teams in the West. In fact, like my comrade Roger argued last week, I think the winner of the Eastern Conference Finals will defeat whichever team advances from the West. What I mean is that the East is much more top-heavy. Take a look at this chart and you’ll figure out what I mean pretty quickly.

This is more of an issue with the top two teams in the conference, but you get the idea. The East has two great teams, two good teams, and four decent teams. I’m going to use 50 wins as the benchmark for a good team. The definition of a great team is pretty subjective, but for right now I’m setting that cutoff at 58 wins because it excludes the Lakers. (Laker fans, feel free to flame me in the comment section. Your team isn’t great this year.) Cleveland, the top dog in the East, won 61 games this year, while eighth-seeded Chicago only won 41, for a difference of 20 games. That means the Cavs won nearly 50% more games than the Bulls. Meanwhile, let’s consider the Western Conference.

No great teams here, but none that are just decent, either. The West features eight good teams going at it. Top-seeded LA was good for 57 wins this year, while Portland, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City brought up the rear with 50 wins. That means the Lakers won 14% more games than the Blazers, Spurs, or Thunder. That’s a far cry from 50%.

But wins and losses don’t tell the whole story. Charlotte and Miami played extremely well in their respective Games 3, but each came away with a close loss. Games only have two possible outcomes – win or loss – so a strong effort could be hidden away in a loss. Point differential is a much clearer indicator of how competitive a game or series has been. If the matchups in the East have really been more lopsided than their Western counterparts, the point differentials should be correspondingly larger. Are they?

With the exception of the Suns-Blazers series, where the Blazers had two no-shows and have struggled with injuries, yes. The four East favorites have largely dominated their opponents. Only Orlando has struggled to keep up against a scrappy Charlotte team, but considering the Bobcats and the Magic were co-leaders in defensive efficiency this year, the low point differential is hardly surprising. Still, winning by an average of seven points is nothing to sniff at. On the other hand, the Western teams appear to be more closely matched. The Mavs-Spurs series is the best example of how tight the West is; the margins of victory for the series have been 6, 14, 4, and 3. The Spurs won Game 2 by a higher margin than the other three games combined. That’s how close it’s been.

Just for grins, I also calculated the total scoring margin for each of the eight favorites in the playoffs. This doesn’t show how close each game has been, but rather how dominant each of the favorites has been over the course of the series. If nothing else, this ought to convince you just how dominant the Big Four have been in the East and how closely matched the West has been.

Three of the East favorites are winning comfortably, and Atlanta would be in that category as well if they hadn’t given up an 18-point loss. Meanwhile, of the West favorites, only Phoenix comes out ahead, with Los Angeles, Dallas, and Denver holding on for dear life.

So what’s the point of all this? Isn’t this just a lot of words to say that the powers in the East are blasting teams that wouldn’t even make the cut in the West? Essentially, yes. The first round in the East is going to be a snoozer, while the West will be dramatic. I don’t see Dallas or Denver fighting back to force a Game 7, but they should each at least make it to Game 6, while the other two series will likely go the distance. On the other hand, we might see all four East series end in five games.

The solution? We probably could have given each of the Big Four in the East a bye and called it good. Once we get to the second round, every series should be equally competitive. That’s because we’ll have cleared out the teams that are only decent and be left with only good or great teams. From where I’m sitting, we might have been best off only allowing teams with 50 or more wins in the playoffs. The pretenders stay home, and we all get to watch good basketball.

It won’t ever happen, of course, so I’ll just have to wait until the second round to see compelling matchups in every series. Sigh.