Order Is (Sort Of) Restored: Forecasting the Final Four

Orange you glad you got to play Butler? (groan...)

After the first two rounds of this year’s tournament were filled with a historic pace of thrilling upsets, you might have been forgiven for thinking we might see a double-digit seed or two in the Final Four. Really, we were all thinking it, or at least hoping it. But if the first weekend is Cinderella’s time to shine, the second is when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin. It’s not unusual to see underdogs make a run to the Sweet Sixteen, but it is rare to see them go much further than that (2008 Davidson and 2006 George Mason being recent exceptions). So it’s not too surprising to see lovable mid-majors like Northern Iowa, Cornell, and St. Mary’s sent packing, restoring a modicum of order to a crazy tournament.

What was surprising, though, was seeing a pair of top-two seeds ousted this early, even if by respectable programs. I didn’t expect either Syracuse or Ohio State to win it all this year, but I also didn’t expect them to lose to Butler or Tennessee. The double-digit seeds may be gone, but the spirit of the underdog lives on. There’s an excellent chance we could see two five seeds (or even a five and a six!) meeting in the Final Four next weekend.

Picking games based on ASM (learn about Adjusted Scoring Margin here) this round would have given you a record of 5-3. While that’s not a great showing, it’s actually not too terrible considering the carnage most brackets have seen. Anything better than flipping a coin at this point is about all you can ask for.

So it is with extreme trepidation that I present my picks for the Elite Eight. I stand by a system that has posted a record of 43-13 so far, but it’s worth pointing out that the last two rounds have seen a record of 16-8, which isn’t quite as impressive. Pay attention to these predictions at your own risk.

5 MICHIGAN STATE (7.4 ASM, #32) VS. 6 TENNESSEE (7.6 ASM, #29)

I’m just as surprised as you are that these are the two finalists from the Midwest, but looking at the numbers, I’m thinking this is going to be an extremely competitive game. Tennessee was probably underseeded a bit, having been blown to pieces by Kentucky in the SEC tournament, but they’ve been a solid team all year. They ought to give the Spartans all they can handle on Sunday. However, since the game looks to be so close, I think I might give the edge to Michigan State here. The whole team has been here before, making a run to the title game last year. Tom Izzo has certainly coached a few Elite Eight games in his time. The Vols, however, are making their first ever appearance this deep in the tournament. I doubt you’ll see much stage fright from this team, but I imagine it will affect them just enough that one or two possessions will make this game. Should be a doozy.

1 KENTUCKY (12.1 ASM, #5) VS. 2 WEST VIRGINIA (8.7 ASM, #18)

Considering all of the chaos we’ve seen this year, it seems downright strange to see a chalk regional final. It’s even stranger to think that this could just have easily have been an 11 vs. 12 matchup with Washington and Cornell. Just that kind of year, I guess. West Virginia has cruised to the Elite Eight, winning their matchups by an average of 16.3 points, though to be fair, they’ve played an average of a 12 seed. But Kentucky has won by an average of 25.3 points, playing against virtually the same level of competition (average seed of 12.3). So who do you take? Frankly, I think the Mountaineers’ run is over. Kentucky has hardly been challenged in this tournament. I think they continue to roll here. They probably won’t win by 25 points, but don’t be surprised if they make it double digits.

5 BUTLER (8.0 ASM, #25) VS. 2 KANSAS STATE (9.6 ASM, #12)

If there’s one team in this tournament that has consistently surprised me, it’s Butler. ASM had them losing all three games they’ve been in so far (against #17 UTEP, #16 Murray State, and #3 Syracuse), and they’ve defied the odds every time. Then again, if there’s one team that has surprised me that shouldn’t have, it’s Kansas State. The Wildcats won by an average of over 10 points a game this season, and that against the third toughest schedule of any tournament team. Is it any wonder they’re cruising through their opponents? While watching Thursday night’s games, I tweeted that I expected a Kentucky-Kansas State final based on what I was seeing. At the risk of jinxing both teams, I stand by that statement. K-State looks invincible right now. Pick against them at your own risk.

1 DUKE (15.0 ASM, #2) VS. 3 BAYLOR (9.2 ASM, #14)

I know it’s trendy to think that the Blue Devils are overrated, but they’re winning by nearly 20 points a game so far, and that against the toughest teams they could have faced (16, 8, 4). Do I expect that trend to continue against Baylor? The same Baylor that just pasted St. Mary’s by 23? No, probably not. But I think it’s time we stopped thinking of Duke as a team destined to collapse early. They’re not just winning games, they’re winning them easily. And remember, before last night’s slaughter of the Gaels, Baylor was struggling to put away 11^th seeded Old Dominion and 14^th seeded Sam Houston State. The Bears are a trendy pick for the Final Four. (Just ask my wife – she has them winning it all.) But I’m not quite convinced they have the chops to get past Duke. I’m picking the Blue Devils, and I see them winning by at least ten.

As always, if you want to see how the HTWS writers and friends’ brackets are looking, or if you just want to laugh over some hideously busted brackets, take a look at our bracket challenge group on ESPN.com.