March Madness Round 2: Yeah, Our Brackets Are Busted, Too

Boy, and we thought the first round was packed with upsets.

Through two rounds and 48 games, this year’s tournament has featured a staggering 16 upsets by seed (including 9 over 8 and 5 over 4). That means one out of every three games ended in an upset this year. For comparison, the 2009 tournament featured 16 upsets total.

So if Kansas, Villanova, and Georgetown’s absence from the Sweet Sixteen have left your bracket in shambles, don’t worry too much about it. You’re not alone. 99% of brackets created on ESPN.com had Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen. 60% of those had the Jayhawks winning it all. When Cole Aldrich hung his head after Northern Iowa’s stunning victory, a grieving nation hung their heads with him.

So how did the By the Numbers bracket hold up? Well, to be fair, I was already missing three teams from the Sweet Sixteen, but the fact that I lost five more should tell you all you need to know. Even assuming that you could have started with a clean slate, basing your picks on adjusted scoring margin wouldn’t have done well for you. Favorites by ASM went just 10-6 (62.5%) in the second round. That doesn’t sound too bad, but bear in mind that using that same metric for the first round yielded a record of 27-5 (84.4%).

So let’s forget about the brackets now. Everyone’s are equally ruined, except, of course, for my wife’s, who picked a Syracuse-Baylor final and is sitting on top of the HTWS bracket group. (She made me take a screen shot so she can lord it over me for years to come.) Let’s take a look at the eight games in the regional semi-finals and see what we have in store. Like the first two rounds, it promises to be one for the ages.

Yeaaaaaaah! How does your bracket look now, suckas?

9 NORTHERN IOWA (6.8 ASM, #37) VS. 5 MICHIGAN STATE (7.4 ASM, #32)

There isn’t a person in America who doesn’t know the name Ali Farokhmanesh now. Northern Iowa is brimming with confidence after dispatching the favorite to win it all, and now that they’ll be playing in nearby St. Louis, they’ll have a friendly crowd on their side. Michigan State has the tools for a deep March run, but they’ve struggled to put away their first two opponents. The numbers suggest that this will be another close one, but don’t be surprised if the Panthers extend their miracle run another game.

6 TENNESSEE (7.6 ASM, #29) VS. 2 OHIO STATE (10.0 ASM, #7)

The temptation is to pick the Buckeyes. They’ve won their first two games going away. Evan Turner has been explosive. And Tennessee has hardly been tested, dispatching no. 11 San Diego State and no. 14 Ohio. So why am I so nervous about this one? With the way the first two rounds have gone, anyone with a high seed should be uneasy. I’d be a fool not to pick Ohio State here, but don’t sleep on the Vols.

1 KENTUCKY (12.1 ASM, #5) VS. 12 CORNELL (6.8 ASM, #36)

Surprised to see an Ivy League team here? Don’t be. The Big Red have caught two potent teams napping in Temple and Wisconsin, winning both games comfortably. Will Big Blue be the next victim? Well, while Cornell is good, I’d go so far as to say that Kentucky is great. Cornell hasn’t seen a team anywhere near as good as the Wildcats. In a year like this, I’m hesitant to make write any picks in ink, but when a team is nearly doubled up in ASM, I think you can be pretty confident going with Kentucky here.

11 WASHINGTON (7.8 ASM, #27) VS. 2 WEST VIRGINIA (8.7 ASM, #18)

A lot of people are surprised to see the Huskies still alive, but they’ve actually been slightly favored in each of their games so far. That ends here, but they’re far from overmatched against the Mountaineers. Washington has some major playmakers in Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas. I like West Virginia’s chances here, but I expect Washington to be competitive all the way to the final horn.

1 SYRACUSE (13.2 ASM, #3) VS. 5 BUTLER (8.0 ASM, #25)

Butler has been impressive so far, blasting UTEP and holding off scrappy Murray State. But Syracuse has been murderous in finishing off Vermont and Gonzaga. I don’t doubt that the Bulldogs have the guns to make this game competitive. But as great a team as they’ve been this year, they haven’t seen anyone like the Orange. I can’t pick against a 5.5 ASM advantage. The Orange move on here.

6 XAVIER (9.1 ASM, #15) VS. 2 KANSAS STATE (9.6 ASM, #12)

This should be one of the best games of the round. Kansas State has been lights out so far, blowing out a tremendously underrated BYU squad. But it’s not as though the Musketeers have been sleepwalking through the tournament. They edged a tenacious Minnesota team and knocked off a vicious Pitt group. No way Xavier has stage fright here. In fact, they have more experience under the bright lights than K-State has. The numbers say K-State, but I’m going to follow my gut and pick Xavier here.

1 DUKE (15.0 ASM, #2) VS. 4 PURDUE (8.3 ASM, #22)

Robbie who? Purdue hasn’t seemed to miss their star Robbie Hummel, moving on to the third round despite being a popular upset pick. They now face Duke, another popular upset pick who people felt was overrated as a 1 seed. So who do you take here? Say what you will about Duke, but they’ve shown themselves worthy of that top seed so far. I think the Blue Devils will be too much for the Boilermakers here. Welcome back to the Elite Eight, Duke. It’s been a while.

3 BAYLOR (9.2 ASM, #14) VS. 10 ST. MARY’S (9.3 ASM, #13)

Baylor was a popular pick here, but the Gaels? They’ve breezed to victories over Richmond and Villanova. They aren’t going to be afraid of the Bears. That said, they might want to worry about the crowd. This game is going to be in Houston, and Baylor fans will be out in force. In a virtual coin-flip game, that might be the difference maker. I like the Bears, but I like them in an ultra-competitive game that should come down to the last tick.

As always, if you’re looking to see how the HTWS authors are doing with their picks, or even if you just need a good laugh, take a look at our bracket group on ESPN.com.