These biceps say everything you need to know about #5 Michigan State.
My bracket isn’t complete without a couple of them.
History has come to increasingly favor the #12 seed over the #5. If you factor in the last 25 years, since the field expanded to 64 teams, the #12 seed has a .333 record against the #5′s. If you just count the last 20 years, that goes up to .425. In the last nine years it’s an even .500, with 18 wins apiece.
And last year? The #12′s won a staggering three of the four showdowns, for a .750 record.
This year doesn’t look any different. The #12′s tend to be underrated, small-time teams (like UTEP and Cornell) while the the #5′s are better-known names or trendy picks (like Michigan State or Butler). We’ll break down the matchups, so that you can officially destroy the rest of the office in your bracket pool. Then you can rub it in their sorry faces.
The analytical tool of choice here is the spider graph. It’s a method of analyzing the style and strengths of a player or team—if it’s your first time seeing them, read up on them first here. You may be tempted to “pick with your gut” on the 5-12 matchups, but remember that your gut also thinks fake cheese is going to be good. Better to go with the numbers here.
In the West: #5 Butler vs. #12 UTEP
Take a quick look at the spider graphs. Now take another look, and realize that UTEP’s is the graph completely swallowing Butler’s, and not the other way around. UTEP is statistically superior to the Butler Bulldogs in all six of our categories, and that’s a good start in picking an upset.
It’s true that pace can inflate statistics, but careful analysis gets us past that. Notice that the Miners’ stats tend to be stronger proportionally on the lower half of the graph, which represents defense. This isn’t a New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix-Suns-a-few-years-ago team—UTEP may play at a quicker pace than Butler, but they also jump the passing lanes and modify shots. And crash the boards. And assist their shots.
On top of that, a quicker pace is often a help rather than a hindrance in March Madness. Out of the four matchups, this one is an absolute gimme.
The pick: UTEP. Score one for the underdog.
In the Midwest: #5 Michigan State vs. #12 New Mexico State
On the other side of the coin, this is the easiest 5-12 matchup for picking the favorite. No team coached by Tom Izzo should be dismissed lightly, and Izzo has taken his Michigan State Spartans to five Final Fours and a national championship.
The graphs are pretty similar, and in these six in-game statistics they trade off a little bit. But when it boils down to it, Michigan State went 24-8 this year and played the in the Big Ten. The NMSU Aggies went 22-11 while playing in the WAC. To cap it off, Michigan State’s average point difference was about +10. NMSU’s was about +1.
The pick: Michigan State. I’ll take the big name here.
In the East: #5 Temple vs. #12 Cornell
The Temple Owls aren’t much of a notable power in recent years, unless you compare them to the Cornell Big Red. Temple enters the tournament with some nice credentials—a #13 ranking nationally and a ten-game winning streak.
But Cornell has also had a ten-game winning streak this season. And an eight-game streak. And they’re currently on a seven-game run. They may play in the weak Ivy League, but they’re no stranger to big competition: two of their four (only four!) losses this season come to Syracuse and Kansas.
The spider graph seals the deal. Cornell dominates Temple in every corner except the boards. But that might not matter, since one of those dominating stats is a nice 48% field goal percentage.
The pick: Cornell. That’s two upsets now.
In the South: #5 Texas A&M vs. #12 Utah State
With two upsets in the bag, this showdown of Texas A&M’s Aggies and Utah State’s Aggies is perhaps the most compelling. Utah State is chronically under-regarded, while A&M is typically solid. Who to take?
Texas A&M tied for second in a competitive Big 12 that ended the season with four ranked teams. Utah State dominated a WAC absent of national powers. We go to the spider graph.
Not a lot of help there either, but at least the picture starts to come into focus. We can tell at a glance that Utah State is a strong offensive team, that gets things done efficiently with a high shooting percentage and good teamwork in assisting shots. A&M figures to be a little quicker—steals are a strong indicator of that—but Utah State goes on to hold its own on the boards.
So we go one deeper. Texas A&M has an impressive +7 average point differential over the season, but Utah State’s is impressively about twice that, at +14. And while neither team lost more than one game at home, Utah State’s 8-5 road record gives them a tiny edge over A&M’s mediocre 5-5.
There are good arguments both ways on this game. But with a 5-12, you have to do some soul-searching. Take a good, hard look at your life. And then pick the team that racked up a 17-game win streak during the regular season.
The pick: Utah State. By a hair.
Yep. That’s right. Three #12′s. It’s going to be a great, great March.
[...] on the site. (We’ve been assigned Texas A&M, which sounds good until you read our 5-12 upset special article. Alas.) There’s a prize in store for the blogger voted by fans as the best, too, so [...]