On Saturday, famed USC football coach Pete Carroll reached an agreement in principle to become the next coach of the Seattle Seahawks. Carroll has had an impressive career as the coach of the Trojans, compiling a staggering 97-19 record, and Seahawks management hope that he can bring that same success with him to the NFL?
History, however, is not on his side.
There is a long tradition of successful college coaches making the leap to the NFL, only to find themselves not enjoying the same level of success. Recently, Louisville coach Bobby Petrino left the college ranks to coach the Atlanta Falcons. As coach of the Cardinals, he put up a 41-9 record and a BCS bowl victory (2007 Orange Bowl).
As coach of the Falcons? He lasted just 16 games before fleeing town with a 3-13 record.
Nick Saban, who just won a national championship with Alabama, left his old school, LSU, to coach the Miami Dolphins. His record with the Tigers was 48-16; his record with the Dolphins, just 15-17.
Pete Carroll has had tremendous success at USC. But will it follow him to Seattle?
In fact, the last six college coaches to make the leap (Petrino, Saban, Dennis Erickson, Steve Spurrier, Butch Davis, and Mike Riley) combined to post an NFL record of 108-172 (.385).
Their combined college record beforehand? 301-103-1 (.743).
In fact, Carroll is no stranger to the NFL game. He has been the head coach of two NFL franchises (New York Jets and New England Patriots), posting a combined record of 33-31 in four seasons.
So what gives? Why have so many successful coaches found nothing but mediocrity and failure in the NFL?
Simply put? It’s a very different game. The formations are different, the competition is higher, and the players themselves are different. Tactics that work without a hitch at the college level might not work in the pros. In fact, they might make the situation even worse.
At the college level, the spread offense is common. Teams at the level of USC are generally unafraid to run plays with four or five wide receivers because they know that they have more talent on offense than they are likely to see on defense. Even if they end up turning over the ball, they know that their defense is potent enough to make up for any mistakes.
In the NFL, such is not the case. The spread offense is uncommon because although the potential for scoring is high, the potential for a turnover is also high. Turnovers in the high-scoring college game, while undesirable, are far from devastating. In the NFL, where low-scoring contests are the norm, losing the ball can mean the difference between victory and defeat.
NFL teams can’t simply rely on superior talent, either. A team like Alabama faces difficult competition during the year, but they also play teams like Chattanooga and Coastal Carolina. In the NFL, even when a team like the Colts plays a team like the Lions, the talent gap isn’t as high as you might think. Both teams have numerous players that have won all-conference and all-American honors. If you aren’t one of the best players in the nation in college, you don’t make the NFL.
The fact that there are only 32 NFL teams as compared to 119 FBS schools helps to concentrate talent, too. There aren’t any guaranteed wins in the NFL, even when you play against the 1-15 St. Louis Rams.
The players themselves are a significant difference. In college, players are generally between 18-22 years old. They’re still young, so they respond to older authority figures (well, usually).
Screaming at a 30 year-old multimillionaire isn’t likely to have much impact, especially when they make more than you do. In college, coaches are the franchise; in the NFL, players are.
That leads into my next point: coaches are treated like near-deities at the college level, which is nearly unheard of in the NFL.
Sure, there are exceptions (Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy come to mind), but coaches usually tend to stay on the sidelines and let their star players do their thing. Teams like the Colts and Saints have excelled this year, and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees receive the lion’s share of the credit.
On the other hand, teams like Alabama and Florida have excelled at the college level, but despite a wealth of star players, coaches Nick Saban and Urban Meyer receive the credit.
Essentially, a larger-than-life personality can be a huge success in college (think Mike Leach), but a huge flop in the pros (think Bobby Petrino). Which brings us back to Pete Carroll.
Carroll knows what it takes to succeed in college. He also knows what doesn’t work in the pros. Will his success translate over to the Seahawks?
There’s a chance it will. Carroll has a better NFL record than any of the past six college-to-pro coaches. His teams qualified for the playoffs in two of his four seasons. And while he’s a colorful personality, he’s done a good job of holding his ego in check in favor of the program he’s built.
So it’s possible we could see a resurgent Seahawks team. But is it likely?
Let me put it this way: if I lived in Seattle, I wouldn’t be buying playoff tickets just yet.
I think there is a good chance that Pete Carroll will transform the Seahawks into a competitive team. Although rare, there have been successful college coaches in the NFL (Jimmy Johnson comes to mind). I think Pete has a better shot at doing well than the other coaches you mentioned because he’s coached at the NFL-level before. He also brings so much passion to the game which should be contagious to the other coaching staff and players. I will definitely be tuning in to watch Seattle next year.
He’s got the cards stacked against him, I think… I imagine it taking a while to rebuild the team to be competitive, and often NFL coaches don’t get to stay around that long. The Seahawks are in dire need of a real franchise quarterback, and a franchise running back to boot.
Pete resurrected a USC team that was floundering in the bottom of the Pac-10, but with good recruiting you can upgrade 1/4 of your players each year. Personnel upgrades in the NFL are a lot more tricky.
There are many examples of college coaches
who have had success in the NFL. John Robinson,
Dick Vermil ect. Pete Carroll was no dismal failure
in his first NFL stint. He actually had a winning record and a playoff victory. If Carroll has shown
anything it is the ability to pick talent. As the head
of player personnel as well as head coach he has the
skills to build a winner if given time.
If any college coach could turn the Seahawks around, it would be Pete Carroll. I just don’t think it’s likely, given recent history. Vermeil and Jimmy Johnson were successes, sure, but for every Vermeil, there tend to be three Bobby Petrinos.