LeBron James’s Title Time is Now; Pencil in John Wall for 2018

The John Wall sweepstakes already has all of NBA internet punditry worked into a lather. We’re still well before the All-Star Game and a half-year before the draft itself, and already we’re speculating on which fourteen teams will qualify for the lottery, and which will have the best chance to pick first.

It’s widely assumed that whichever franchise wins the Wall-flavored prize in the draft—whether it be the Nets, the Timberwolves, the Warriors, or any other dysfunctional organization—will attain some sort of religious salvation. With all the accolades he’s received it doesn’t feel like a stretch to say that drafting John Wall will be a franchise-changer like drafting Kevin Garnett, LeBron James or even the mythical Jordan.

But the Timberwolves didn’t win a title immediately with KG; they never did. King James has taken the Cavs to the Finals but no further in his six full seasons in the league. And the Bulls, led by the greatest player to ever play the game, didn’t win a ring until MJ was in his seventh season.

Kobe eventually won his—HIS—title in 13th season. KG’s ring with the Boston Celtics also came in his 13th season. Tim Duncan’s first title without David Robinson came in his 8th season. For Hakeem Olajuwon it took ten years, for Shaq it took eight. The only championship team in recent memory to not have a clear single leader was the 2004 Detroit Pistons; all the same, Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace had been in the league for seven and nine years, respectively.

Young players, it turns out, don’t win titles.

Not as leaders, anyway. Several young stars have won titles as sidekicks (Kobe Bryant assuredly played second fiddle to Shaq in their three title runs; Dwyane Wade is a somewhat more compelling case), but we’ve all become well acquainted with what it means to lead a team.

This all becomes very encouraging for Cleveland Cavaliers fans, for whom a title seems overdue with LeBron at the helm. With the historical precedent in hand, it’s somewhat ridiculous to criticize the Cavs for underachieving since their Finals appearance in 2007, given the mediocre supporting cast and the fact that their star really hasn’t yet come of age—if it’s really age or experience that is the main factor.

If it’s not, here’s an alternate hypothesis that should carry some weight. It’s simple and reasonable to assume that a team must hit rock-bottom (or close) to earn the rights to draft a superstar. But it’s also well-known that it takes a couple of stars to bring home the trophy, and perhaps it’s after the seven- or eight-year mark that the team is able to build the right team around their star—for Jordan it was Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant; for Garnett it was Stephon Marbury, even though they weren’t able to win it all.

There’s an outside chance, however, that whoever lands John Wall will be able to bypass some of that waiting period because of the blockbuster free agent summer that begins right around the same time. Imagine: New Jersey’s new Russian owner might be very happy come June if the Nets score both Wall and a max contract FA—consider Wall, the most anticipated draftee in years, teaming up with LeBron (the last draftee to garner as much hype). The results could be explosive—there’s a team who might win more than three games by January.

Without a free agent acquisition, though, Wall will end up on a bottom-feeder team and we can (and should) expect seven-ish years before they’re in championship contention. LeBron is coming to fruition before our eyes (it’s his seventh season now), and we’re still waiting out Kevin Durant. Give him a few more years (it’s only his third); his supporting cast is starting to shape up nicely, too.
We’ve come to put a lot of stock in these young guns. Brandon Jennings is bringing salvation to the Milwaukee Bucks as we speak. Tyreke Evans is going to save the Sacramento Kings. Someday, Blake Griffin will take on the inestimably difficult task of righting the Clippers’ ship, if such a pun can be pardoned.

If this were baseball, none of these players would stay with their original teams, but fortunately the NBA has put a lot of effort into keeping players put. For rookies, the fourth contract year is a team option, always exercised for a player worth keeping (especially under their rookie contract salary); beyond that, incumbent teams are able to offer larger maximum contracts than can be offered by new teams in free agency, which is supposedly one of the major factors in keeping LeBron in Cleveland after this year (helpful tip: he’ll stay, don’t worry about it).

Ultimately, the draft certainly does have the power to reinvent a team, as a single player can turn around the backward momentum of a flailing franchise and get it back on its anthropomorphic feet. We’ve seen it time and time again—it just doesn’t typically happen as fast as we’d like.

So, come on. Give these guys a few years before demanding a title.