Get used to seeing Kevin Durant compared to these two guys.
Oklahoma City Thunder SF Kevin Durant was named as a Western Conference All-Star reserve today. Durant is a major reason why the Thunder, conference punching bags last season, are in the thick of the playoff hunt midway through the season.
Durant’s nomination as an All-Star Reserve came as a surprise to no one. The question people should be asking is why he wasn’t a starter.
I’m aware that the notion of Durant as a starter in just his third year as a pro sounds ridiculous. Take a moment and hear me out, though.
The starting small forwards are Carmelo Anthony (of the Denver Nuggets) and LeBron James (of the Cleveland Cavaliers). You’d have a hard time finding someone who felt that either of those two didn’t deserve a starting spot. But let’s take a look at their per game stats so far this year, without looking at their names. Try to guess which player is which.
| Player | Points | Assists | Steals | Blocks | Rebounds | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 29.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 46.4% |
| B | 29.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7.3 | 47.9% |
| C | 29.6 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 50.5% |
Having a hard time? That’s because other than Player C’s impressive assist total, all three players have nearly identical stats. That probably gives away his identity, but let’s pull the curtains back anyway.
| Player | Points | Assists | Steals | Blocks | Rebounds | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmelo Anthony | 29.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 46.4% |
| Kevin Durant | 29.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7.3 | 47.9% |
| LeBron James | 29.6 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 50.5% |
If raw numbers aren’t doing it for you, perhaps something more visual will help. Here’s a spider graph showing all three players. (If you aren’t familiar with spider graphs, take a look at the introductory article first.)
Granted, LeBron’s graph completely encircles Durant’s, but for the most part, the Durantula holds his own. (Also, how cool is it to see the Durantula represented in a spider graph?)
The media has been raving about the stratospheric numbers Anthony and James have been putting up, but Durant isn’t far behind. Why, then, the comparative lack of attention to one of the Association’s fastest-rising stars?
A big factor has to be their teams’ respective records. Melo and LeBron have their teams poised for a deep run in the playoffs. The Cavs lead the East (and the league!) with a record of 36-11. Anthony’s Nuggets have been the West’s #2 team for nearly the entire season, posting a record of 31-14.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are sitting at 24-21, good for fourth in their division, and are just a year removed from their 23-59 train wreck 2009 record.
Of course, you’d subconsciously give the edge to the player on the better team, figuring that the better player would elevate his team higher. And you’d probably be right.
But to overlook the brilliance that Durant has been putting forth night after night on the prairie simply because his team isn’t contending for a championship would be short-sighted, to say the least. Durant’s Thunder are poised to crack into the playoffs in the loaded West. Considering the nightmare that his team was last year, that’s saying something. They’re on pace to improve their record by 20-25 games. Wow.
Maybe you’re discounting Durant because of his defense. That’s fair. He was the subject of a small controversy this summer when it came to light that he had a horrible adjusted +/- rating (essentially, measuring how well the team performs while you’re on the court versus how well it performs when you aren’t). He clearly took that criticism to heart and has taken huge strides on defense this year. While he’s hardly a lockdown defender, he’s far from the liability he was last year.
Maybe you’re overlooking him because he plays in Oklahoma City, far from the spotlight. I can’t dispute the fact that many people aren’t really up to date on what’s going with Oklahoma sports other than the Sooners, but that’s why I’m writing this article. As much as it pains me to say, considering they were stolen from Seattle, depriving me of a rival as a hardcore Blazers fan, the Thunder are really quite good.
The only real factor I can see is that James and Anthony have put up numbers like this consistently for several years. For Durant, this is his first time. That shouldn’t discount the sheer amazingness of what he’s doing, but it does temper things a bit. Before we start considering him to be on a par with established superstars, maybe we need to see him keep this pace up for a little while longer. I’m okay with that.
But from where we are right now, Durant is just as statistically potent a player as Melo or Bron. Considering it’s just his third year, and that he’s only 21, maybe we ought to sit up and take notice.
To put it a slightly more provocative way, we are all witnesses.
As productivity generally increases until a plateau around 25, two conclusions: Kevin Durant is very good now, and is likely to improve. Carmelo Anthony is slightly behind Durant now, and is unlikely to improve.
I’d argue that players generally peak around 27, but that’s a really good point. Scary to think that Durant will probably only get better from here.
Cool things in this post: that spider graph, and also (not strictly speaking *in* the post) the fact that Shazaam is over there in the HTWS picks column.
I’m so pleased that you’ve noticed/commented on it. I’ve never actually seen it, but that does not prevent me in the slightest from recommending it to complete strangers.