By the Numbers: Ranking the NBA By Top Ten Players

The playoff future for Atlanta looks bright.

With half the NBA season already in the books, we’ve already started to see separation between championship contenders and teams gearing up for the lottery. We already know that teams like the Celtics, Cavaliers, Lakers, and Nuggets are heading for the playoffs. We also know that some of those will go deeper into the postseason than others. But which ones? Other than looking at wins and losses, how can we tell which teams are more likely to go home with a banner and which are more likely to just go home?

I’m so glad you asked.

No single tool (or combination of tools, for that matter) can predict with complete accuracy which team will win it all in June. That, as they say, is why they play the games. But there are some tools that can give us a fairly good idea. Average scoring margin is one tool that was covered in an earlier article, albeit through the lens of college football. Another one, though less objective, is the number of top-ten players a team has at each position.

Determining which players merit top-ten status isn’t easy, and it’s sure to stir up a few debates. While there are a few players that are clearly among the top ten at their position (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwight Howard, to name a few), some aren’t quite as clear-cut. Is Luke Ridnour a top-ten point guard? What about Andre Miller? Should Emeka Okafor make the cut in the centers category, or should we include Andrew Bogut?

I chose to make my cutoffs using John Hollinger’s PER formula as a guideline, making changes where I thought necessary. (Philadelphia’s Marreese Speights has the sixth-highest PER of NBA centers, but there’s no way he’s a top-ten guy.) Here’s what I came up with. Agree or disagree as you see fit.

Your chart may look a little different, but probably not by much. If you think one of your favorite players deserves a spot on the chart, use this simple test: is there a player on the list that your team wouldn’t trade your player for, straight up? For example, if you think Zydrunas Ilgauskas should be on the list, consider whether or not the Cavs would or would not trade him for, say, Andrew Bogut or David Lee.

(I included Greg Oden with an asterisk, since he would definitely make the cut if he were healthy. Through 21 games, he had posted a 23.50 PER, better than Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Brook Lopez, and, oh, everyone else on Portland’s roster. So unfair.)

Using these players, we arrive at the following results.

With a few notable exceptions, this breaks down more or less how you would expect it to. Title contenders are on the left. Lottery fodder are on the right. It’s not perfect, of course – no one thinks of the Grizzlies, impressive as they’ve been, as title threats, and Cleveland certainly isn’t headed to the lottery – but this gives us a good idea of where the league stands.

A championship team could come from any of these categories (just ask the 2004 Pistons or the 2006 Heat), but they’re most likely to come from the far left. Take a look at the two finalists last year. The Lakers had three (or four, depending on who you ask) top-ten players in Bryant, Gasol, Lamar Odom, and possibly Bynum. The Magic also had three (or four) in Howard, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, and possibly Hedo Turkoglu. Not surprisingly, they cruised past the Spurs and Cavs in the conference finals, who had one or two each (Duncan, Parker, and James).

"What do you mean my team only has one top-ten guy?"

Some of you may find your favorite team lower than you’d like, and you’re probably thinking how stupid I am for ranking them so low. But take a moment to realize what you’re thinking. If you’re a Cavs fan, you’re probably saying, “If Mo Williams and Shaq step up a little bit, we’re a lock to win it all.” Essentially, what you’re saying is, “If we push ourselves into that far left category, we’re a lock to win it all.”

I’d be more than happy to agree with you there. I’m a Blazers fan, and I think the same thing about LaMarcus Aldridge. If he could step it up a notch, we’d be devastating. Until he does, I’m leaving us in the middle category.

One other thing this chart shows us is which teams are likely to surprise or disappoint us in the playoffs. A team with a middling record but a high number of top-ten players has a good chance of going further in the playoffs than you might expect. Memphis is a top candidate here, as well as Utah. Meanwhile, on the opposite end, Cleveland, Houston, and Oklahoma City could be headed for unexpectedly early playoff exits.

As with any statistical tool, this isn’t perfect. Other factors, like scoring margin, per 48 stats, and, you know, actually watching the games, should be taken into account. But there’s something to be said for looking at the league from a different perspective. Based on this chart, while we’re likely to see a Lakers-Celtics Finals rematch, we could just as well see a Hawks-Mavericks Finals.

If it happens, you can say you heard it here first. And if it doesn’t, well, at least you’ll understand why someone might have thought it could have.

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