After an NFL Season of NBA Games, Lakers and Magic Make the Super Bowl

I often spend valuable showering time thinking about the differences between various sports, and how the different formats affect the sport’s results. Every game matters immeasurably in football, as you play only 17 games. Baseball takes a different tack with 162 games, and as such the goal of any team is to win two out of every three. Somewhere in between is the blessed NBA, with a season of 82 contests per team.

What would happen, then, if MLB teams each had only one starting pitcher and played only once a week for 17 weeks? Or if NFL teams crammed 82 games into a regular season?

Here in late November we’re 17ish games into the NBA season, a number remarkable as the prescribed length of the NFL season. We haven’t worried ourselves too much with Cleveland’s early losses—there’s plenty of time to get their offense straight. Even the San Antonio Spurs are still widely considered a legitimate playoff contender, after starting 4-4. But if the NBA entered the playoffs right now, after 17 games—as the NFL does—what would it look like?

Conscience dictates that we find out.

There are a few logistical differences between the two leagues, of course. The NBA has 16 teams in the playoffs, eight each from the Western and Eastern Conferences. Winning the division ensures a top-4 seed in the conference, but otherwise is meaningless.

In the NFL, only six teams make the playoffs per conference—4 division winners, and two wildcards. The two division winners with the best regular-season records get a first-round bye, while the other two division winners and the two wildcards play to advance. From there the surviving teams play out the division playoffs followed by the conference championships, and the two big winners face off in the Super Bowl.

So if we drop the current NBA season into the NFL’s playoff format, seeding each conference by win-loss record and the appropriate tiebreakers, we get this:

Most of the right teams are represented, of course. The most noticeable dearths are of perennial playoff teams the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets—the East, with its abbreviated depth, looks fine as it is.

Determining a winner is somewhat necessary, but isn’t terribly interesting. The only fair way to continue is by record—the higher seeds win each showdown. The Atlanta Hawks beat the Milwaukee Bucks and the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Miami Heat in the East, and the Denver Nuggets top the Spurs while the Dallas Mavericks oust the Portland Trailblazers in the West. The four teams with first round byes, then, each beat those winners, and end up with the Phoenix Suns playing the Los Angeles Lakers for one Super Bowl spot, and the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics facing up for the other.

Really, even after only 17 games, that’s not too far-fetched.

Going strictly by records, the Suns and Magic would battle it out for the Vince Lombardi trophy. That’s where I’d make my only change, and it’s not for bagging on the Suns—it’s giving the Lakers credit for doing so well even with Pau Gasol, their second-best player, sitting for most of the season so far (they’re only back a half-game behind Phoenix). I’d put the Lakers in the final against the Magic, giving us a replay of last year’s NBA Finals.

I have to assume then, even as a fan of anybody playing against the Lakers, that the purple and gold would pull out a Super Bowl victory in such a situation. The finished bracket shakes out like this:

The more interesting part is to consider whether the NBA’s actual playoffs, come spring and summer, will be recognizably similar.

Some thoughts:

1. The Milwaukee Bucks weigh in here as the #6 seed in the East, which I think is the most compelling seeding in this entire playoff. If they can maintain that until the season’s end, it’ll be entirely because of Brandon Jennings. If Michael Redd can find a role on this team that used to be his, the Bucks could conceivably be dangerous east of the Mississippi.
2. The Cleveland Cavaliers, last year’s league-leader in wins, only rise to #4 in the East. Even as a LeBron fanboy, I think it’s fair to expect to see them with a #4 seed, or thereabouts, in April.
3. Phoenix. Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix. It’s hip to call Phoenix out on their age, and expect them to have a dropoff somewhere mid-season when Steve Nash inevitably disintegrates into a pile of bone dust mid-drive. That’s a characteristic of the NBA’s season format, as well—the length penalizes teams with physical weaknesses. They’ve gotten rid of the Shaq pox, though; they’re getting great production out of Grant Hill and Jason Richardson, and Amare Stoudemire is in a contract year. I expect the Suns to put up big numbers all season long. Can they last through the playoffs in the stacked West? Maybe not, but they’re going to put together 82 games of the best entertainment in the league.
4. Portland as a #5? That might be a little low. They may not secure the #1 seed in the West, but I can see them posting higher than #5. It’s almost frustrating waiting for this team to break out.
5. On the flip side, #2 might be optimistic for the Boston Celtics. Potential injuries hang over this team of arthritic septuagenarians like a huge, glistening guillotine blade. They’re one busted knee from dropping big in the East. That’s an advantage of the NBA over the NFL, though—the season’s length can mitigate the effect of a non-major injury on a team’s record.
6. Every race is close. By win-loss record, there’s only a 4-game difference between the top and bottom seeds in the West, and 4.5 in the East. A single loss by the Orlando Magic could drop them as far as the #5 seed—in a single game. While NBA playoff races often end up close, NFL playoff races are almost always this close.

All of those points will have ample time to play out by the time the real playoffs roll around. But that’s the exact difference between the NBA season and the NFL season—the NFL doesn’t allow this kind of second chances. The Tennessee Titans, after starting 0-6, now likely have to win out if they even hope to make the playoffs.

In the NBA, individual games are a drop in a bucket—a bucket that holds 82 drops.