TCU Replaces Boise State as the Prettiest Girl at the Non-BCS Dance

Boise State may have already enjoyed the highest ranking it’s going to see this season, even if it goes undefeated.

The Broncos dropped in the BCS standings (aka, the only rankings that matter) from #4 to #7 this week, finding themselves leap-frogged by fellow unbeaten mid-major TCU—plus one-loss USC and unbeaten Iowa.

And that was after a convincing 54-9 blowout of conference foe Hawaii.

Word around the country (try here, here, here, and here) is that poll voters will pick a one-loss, or possibly even two-loss, team from a powerhouse conference for the BCS Championship game over an unbeaten Boise State. And with TCU from the Mountain West Conference having jumped them in the rankings, it’s possible that the Broncos will get squeezed out of a BCS bowl entirely.

It’s happened twice before. In both 2004 and 2008 (just last season), Utah was selected for a BCS bowl and an undefeated Boise State team was left in the cold. While the BCS system allows for two schools from non-automatically-qualifying conferences to make BCS bowls, it’s highly, highly unlikely that it will ever happen.

Which all raises the question: Did anybody ever believe that Boise State was the fourth-best team in the country, even when they held that ranking?

It’s a tough pill to swallow for Smurf Turf fans, and I can relate as an alum of another longstanding mid-major power. But to really understand the rankings we have to understand where they come from, and why they can ultimately seem fickle and unreliable.

Early in the season, AP ranking voting is predictable. Teams that lose drop down a few spots, and the teams that win typically stay in the same order but slide up to fill the vacated spots.

It’s not always fair, but preseason rankings set the landscape for most of the season. Take last year’s Utah Utes, for example. They started the season unranked, and ended up #2—their trip through the rankings from week to week was a slow climb to the top, as they continued to put together quality wins each week. They jumped into the rankings at #22 after beating Michigan in week one, then were ranked 22, 20, 17, 15, 14, 14, 11, 10, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, and 6 again—apparently reaching their limit, even though undefeated and behind five one-loss teams. They finally impressed voters with their Sugar Bowl win over Alabama and finished the season at #2.

Had Utah started as a top 10 team at the season’s beginning, they likely could have climbed higher than #6 before the bowls were determined—though it’s likely they still wouldn’t have made the BCS championship game.

It’s possible, of course, to jump up in the rankings early in the season—BYU jumped from #20 to #9 this year after beating the then-#3 Oklahoma Sooners in week one—but it’s certainly the exception rather than the rule.

And the rule has held pretty fast for Boise State throughout this season so far. Starting with the preseason, they’ve been ranked 14, 12, 10, 8, 5, 6 (after being jumped by Virginia Tech, who had just beaten #9 Miami), 5 again, and 4, before now dropping to 7.

As the season progresses, which we’re seeing now, that voter behavior starts changing and BCS standings become more important than AP rankings. Gone are the cupcake non-conference schedules. Ranked teams start to play better opponents, and teams are looking for signature wins to boost their BCS standing.

And for a mid-major with no big games left, like Boise State, they may have reached their glass ceiling.

Iowa jumped ahead of BSU in this week’s rankings with a road win over Big Ten challenger Michigan State. With a undefeated pedigree that also boasts wins over Michigan and then-#5 Penn State, it’s hard to argue with the Hawkeyes being ranked fourth nationally. While Boise State had its own marquee win over Oregon to start the season, it’s more difficult to be taken seriously when your second-toughest challenge was a close scrape against Tulsa.

USC also jumped ahead, after exorcising its 2008 demons and beating Oregon State at home. While USC has a loss at the hands of Washington, they also have road wins over then-#8 Ohio State, then-#24 Cal and then-#25 Notre Dame. They’re not done, either—the Trojans could still move up or down with big games coming up against #10 Oregon (in Eugene) and at home against #20 Arizona.

But it’s TCU jumping ahead that must hurt the most to Bronco fans. The Horned Frogs notched their biggest win of the season with a 38-7 on-the-road shellacking of then-#16 BYU. TCU can strengthen its resumé even more with a win over #16 Utah in three weeks.

And Boise State? Their biggest game yet to play is a WAC conference showdown with Idaho. Nevada is their next closest thing to a marquee game. The rest of the schedule is a glass half-empty: San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, New Mexico State.

Even if the Broncos win out, it’s unlikely they’ll move up much in the rankings—if at all—from where they are now at #7. If both teams finish the season undefeated, it’s almost certainly TCU, to the exclusion of Boise State, that will make a BCS bowl—reaping the publicity, prestige, and revenues that come with such an honor.

So, my condolences to Boise State fans. Unless TCU loses a game—which is looking less and less likely—we’re going to have a repeat of 2004 and 2008.

And instead of a BCS bowl, we’ll see Boise State in something like the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.