Saves: The Most Overrated Statistic in Baseball?

Trevor Hoffman. Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez. Mariano Rivera. All legends on the mound for their phenomenal ability to save virtually any game for their team.

And all of them, at least statistically speaking, all wildly overrated.

The save is one of baseball’s most intuitive statistics, yet at the same time, one of the most misunderstood. A pitcher is credited with a save if he is the last pitcher in a game won by his team, is not credited with a win, and records at least one out. He also has to do one of the following three things: enter the game with a lead of three runs or less and pitch at least one inning, enter the game with the tying run on base, at bat, or on deck (regardless of the count), or pitch for at least three innings (generally the seventh, eighth, and ninth).

This nearly always means that the closing pitcher on the winning team is credited with a save, provided they enter the ninth inning with a lead of fewer than three runs. The statistic doesn’t take into account whether the lead is in jeopardy or any degree of difficulty. Essentially, most saves are given out in relatively safe situations where nearly anyone pitching would be able to get out of an inning.

This leads to some overinflation of the way we look at closing pitchers. Let’s consider Huston Street, the closer for the Colorado Rockies, winners of the 2009 NL Wild Card. Street, along with the rest of the bullpen, has received credit for the Rockies’ resurgence in 2009, picking up 35 saves and a 4-1 record. His 35 saves are the second-most in his career, which means 2009 was his second-best season. Right?

Well, it depends on how you look at it. Sure, he was in a lot of save situations, but what about his ERA? In nearly 62 innings pitched, Street posted an ERA of 3.07. Not too shabby, certainly, but it pales in comparison to his 2.88 ERA in 2007 and 1.72 ERA in 2005, seasons in which he recorded a combined 39 saves — only barely more than he did this season.

What does this tell us? Essentially, it tells us that Street pitched at the end of more games in 2009 than he did in 2005 or 2007. Not much more than that.

Now, this isn’t to say that I think Street is a bad reliever. As an ardent fan of the Rockies, it’s actually just the opposite. I think Street was a terrific addition to the team. I also think there are more sophisticated ways of looking at Street’s production, such as WHIP, BABIP, or K/9. (Incidentally, a K/9 rate of 10.22 this year? I could marry this man.)

One last note about the save — occasionally, they can be awarded in clearly gratuitous situations. One dramatic example came in a game between the Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles in which the Rangers won by a score of 30-3. Wes Littleton entered the game in the seventh inning with a lead of 14-3 and went on to pitch the next three innings. Even though the Rangers scored a mind-bending 16 further runs, Littleton picked up the save because he met all four criteria for the save; he was the final pitcher in the game, he did not earn the win (since the Rangers already had the lead when he came into the game), he recorded at least one out, and he pitched at least three innings.

Now, is there any aspect of the lead that he could be said to have saved? Not particularly, but he still picked up the save — one of just two he recorded that season.

The statistical revolution in baseball has given us a new way to look at players’ production, both offensively and defensively, but it’s best to remember to look at all of these numbers with an eye of skepticism, too.

Hoffman, Rodriguez, Rivera, Street, and even Littleton can all tell you that.