Wins And Losses? For Pitchers, They Don’t Tell The Whole Story

Perhaps the single most misunderstood statistic in baseball is the win. Not the win a team gets when it outscores another team, since that’s about as basic as it gets, but wins that pitchers rack up over the season. You’d think a win would be as simple as the pitcher playing for the winning team, but then, if it were that simple, you probably wouldn’t be reading this article.

Of course, sometimes it is that simple. When Mark Buerhle threw his perfect game for the Chicago White Sox on July 23, he was credited with a win, because his team won, and he was the only pitcher. Easy enough.

But what happens if a team has multiple pitchers in a game, as is nearly always the case? Generally, the starting pitcher is credited with the win, since he usually pitches the longest. In fact, in order to qualify for a win, a starting pitcher has to pitch for at least five innings.

Of course, there’s more to it than that. The other qualification is that the pitcher has to be in the game when his team takes the lead for the last time. If, say, C.C. Sabathia is pitching for the New York Yankees and leaves after seven innings with a 3-0 lead, he would qualify for the win. If a relief pitcher then gives up four runs, but the Yankees come back to win, Sabathia no longer gets the win, since he wasn’t in the game when his team last took the lead. In that case, his reliever is credited with the win (and also a blown save, which we’ll discuss in another article).

As you might expect, the pitcher in the game when his team gives up the lead for the last time is credited with a loss. This means sometimes the starting pitcher will be credited with neither a win nor a loss, since they have come out of the game before the lead changes hands for the last time. In that case, he is credited with a no decision, which does not count against his record.

The interesting thing about the win statistic is that the pitcher only has a partial degree of control over it. A starting pitcher can pitch well enough to win a game for his team, only to watch his bullpen or the defense behind him blow the game. Kansas City’s Zack Greinke only has 13 wins on the season, tying him with five other pitchers for eighth place in the AL. Yet most baseball writers have him as a lock to win the AL Cy Young Award. Why Greinke and not Sabathia, who leads the AL with 17 wins? Sabathia plays in front of a great defense, while Greinke plays for, well, the Royals.

Sometimes it takes a look at more advanced statistics to see the big picture. (If you need a refresher on baseball statistics, take a quick look at this explanatory article.) The San Francisco Giants’ Tim Lincecum, like Greinke, ranks eighth in the NL in wins, also with 13. Colorado’s Jason Marquis has two more wins, giving him 15 and third place.

I may be an unabashed Colorado Rockies fan, but even I couldn’t realistically argue that Marquis deserves the NL Cy Young Award over Lincecum.

Why? Wins don’t tell the whole story. Sure, Marquis has won more games, but Lincecum leads the NL in ERA, K/9, and is third in WHIP (with a minimum of 160 innings pitched).

Marquis, for comparison, ranks 16th in ERA, 34th in K/9, and 20th in WHIP.

One interesting, but still rare, stat that tries to adjust for excellent pitchers on atrocious teams is the “tough loss.” In order to qualify for a tough loss, a starting pitcher has to pitch at least six innings, give up no more than three earned runs, and still see his team lose the game. This frees the pitcher from receiving a loss due to bad defense, a blown save, or a lack of run support.

As you might expect, Greinke is near the top of the AL in tough losses with five, but the MLB leader might surprise you. It’s actually Johan Santana of the New York Mets with seven. Santana, by many accounts, is one of the most talented pitchers in the game, but suffered the indignity of having to play for the Mets while they blundered their way toward the bottom of the NL East.

And despite those seven tough losses, he still posted a 13-9 record.

Just one more reason why wins and losses don’t tell the whole story for a pitcher.