Heisman hopefuls Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy both led their teams to clutch conference wins last Saturday.
But are either of them actually going to make it in the NFL?
Frankly, they’ve got two strikes against them. Heisman winners have a history of being busts in the NFL, especially quarterbacks—think of guys like Eric Crouch, Jason White, and Gino Torretta. And running quarterbacks are notoriously poor NFL stock.
It all goes to show the difference between the college game and the NFL.
New NFL draftees meet a whole new caliber of athletic ability when they enter the league. While it’s possible to dominate with sheer athleticism and speed in college, everyone in the NFL is superlative in those characteristics.
When a running quarterback hits the NFL game, every single linebacker is faster than any linebacker he’s ever seen before. Games that were once won by straight physical skill now have to be won by gameplan and and execution. And games won with their feet now have to be won with their arm.
Just ask Vince Young.
Quarterbacks that take snaps from shotgun in college—like Tebow and McCoy—are typically at a disadvantage as well, as the shotgun is used sparingly in the NFL. Florida and Texas both run primarily a spread offense, which is difficult to implement in the NFL without the right personnel.
The spread typically involves the QB taking the snap from shotgun with 4 or 5 receivers wide, and throwing the ball on most plays against a defense that’s expecting just that. And in college, but not in the NFL, the quarterback running draws out of the shotgun.
It’s worked for Tom Brady’s New England Patriots, Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts, and now Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints, but for most teams it’s easier to put the quarterback under center and run a more balanced run/pass offense.
Ultimately, it turns out that the Bradys, Mannings, and Breeses of the world are few and far between.
This is also why the USC Trojans have put together such a rich tradition of quarterbacks going to the NFL (Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, John David Booty, Mark Sanchez). In Pete Carroll’s pro-style offense, the QB takes most of the snaps under center and is thus a little better prepared for the transition to the NFL.
It’s worth pointing out as well that very few college quarterbacks actually make it to the NFL in the first place. With 120 teams in the college football FBS (formerly Division I-A) and only 32 in the NFL, it becomes clear that most college quarterbacks end up finding other lines of work.
On top of that, most NFL teams have several quarterbacks on their roster already, and many need to fill other positions long before adding another QB. Only 11 quarterbacks were selected in the 2009 NFL Draft. Thirteen were selected in 2008.
That’s how even a Heisman winner, like Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Jason White in 2005, can go undrafted.
On the other hand, some NFL-quality athletes probably won’t make it to the big leagues—simply because they play quarterback.
The prime example is Washington Huskies quarterback Jake Locker. While his Huskies just toppled USC this week, he hasn’t always been a high profile player. But despite the accolades piled on players from USC, Oregon, or Cal, Locker is likely the most gifted pure athlete in the entire Pac-10.
At 6’3″, 226 lbs., with tremendous agility and pure athleticism, Locker could easily be a defensive back.
But Locker, like so many top-notch athletes, was a quarterback in high school—and a good one. He led Ferndale (WA) High School to an undefeated season and a state title, on his way to All-American honors. He threw for 25 touchdowns that season—and ran for 24 more.
It surely wasn’t difficult to secure a scholarship offer to become UW’s new star quarterback.
Locker had always been a quarterback, probably simply by virtue of his being the best athlete on the field, and he’d always been able to dominate defenses purely with physical skills. That hasn’t changed in college. But in an NFL full of the country’s very best athletes, it’s other characteristics that make great quarterbacks.
If Locker had become a defensive back, he might be preparing an NFL resumé. As a quarterback, his NFL chances are very slim. And while Tim Tebow will probably get his shot in the NFL, would he be a better prospect if he were a tight end?
Or, for that matter, will running quarterbacks ever make a mark in the NFL?
Michael Vick is perhaps the only quarterback that has done it passably well in football’s best league, taking the Atlanta Falcons to the conference championship in 2004. The Miami Dolphins are hoping that Pat White can make the Wildcat offense more than just a passing fad.
We’ll probably get to see Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy wear NFL uniforms after this year is over.
But unless something changes, the smart money isn’t on them taking the league by storm.
Of course, Jake Locker has already signed with the Angels to play baseball. So he’s probably not looking to be drafted by a football team.
I agree with some of your assessments of college to NFL QB transitions, but I think your read on Jake Locker is off. If you’ve watched any of the games this season, you’ll see that Jake is winning with his arm, not his legs & he is rarely lining up shotgun because Coach Sark runs a pro-style offense (you should know him as the former offensive coordinator for the USC team you mention).
Yes, Jake can run, but after his senior season, he will be a 1st-round draft pick in the NFL, even if he doesn’t win the Heisman. The biggest thing missing from Jake’s game is the quality of receivers & offensive line other Heisman candidates enjoy. Check out his passing numbers despite lack of a decent team around him: http://www.jake-locker.com/category/jake-locker-stats/
One thing I don’t understand.. there has never been a QB in college football that has both passed as well as Tebow and ran as effectively and was the decision maker Tebow is. So how can you use past examples to predict how successful Tebow will be? People are completely overreacting to one game where Tebow had low passing stats and in which he WON the game. It wasn’t necessary for Tebow to pass to win the game. It’s clear that the Gators were taking what the defense gave them. People also always forget that Tebow has never had a true runningback playing off him to allow him to play a conventional under center pro style offense. Matt Stafford had a great runningback a great defense and STILL couldn’t win a championship in college football yet still was drafted number one.
I also believe that the lack of success in the NFL isn’t about athleticism.. it’s about the NFL’s inability to use these players effectively. let’s face it.. football people aren’t exactly creative geniuses in my opinion. They are so bound by tradition and the way thing shave been done in the pass they won’t give new ideas ideas a chance. I think more athletic QBs are LONG over due. The pure pocket passer offense is a gimmick offense really. It’s just been in place so long people are afraid to try anything new. I think running Qbs are actually less likely to be injured in today’s game. defenses are too strong and fast and pocket passers can’t be protected. Use a running Qb and it throws the defense off. And Tebow is the perfect running QB for the NFL.. the mistake people made in the past was to use th fastest running Qbs rather than a guy like Tebow that is durable and a better passer rather than a fast guy that can’t pass like Vince Young and Mike Vick. Though Vince Young ran the 4 in the same time as Tebow. So Tebow is plenty fast too.
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