Wallace or Perkins? The Boston Celtics’ Offseason Moves in Spider Graphs

The Boston Celtics made a big move this 2009 offseason, but in doing so opened up one gaping question.

Just who’s going to start, anyway?

The Celtics signed Rasheed Wallace out of free agency, adding the 6’11″ Sheed to a frontcourt that already boasts Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. KG has the power forward starting spot locked down, clearly, but is Perkins’ spot as the starting center in danger?

It is, of course, impossible to predict team chemistry and how a single player will the performance of a team overall, but statistics let us make some rough estimates.

And for this, we turn to Spider Graphs.

If you haven’t seen Spider Graphs before, they’re a new way to reflect a player or team’s statistics in a visual way that gives you an overall impression of their style. If you’re unfamiliar with how to read them and how they’re created, read the quick Spider Graph explanation here before you go any further (really, you’ll regret it if you don’t).

And just as another refresher, the top half of the graph is offense, the bottom is defense; the top right is perimeter players, and the bottom left is big men.

Perkins has been a solid presence in the middle for Boston, including in their championship run two years ago. Wallace has a ring of his own, and has the ability to spread the floor a bit with his shooting.

Without further ado, here’s how they stack up using 2008 statistics. These graphs use per-48-minutes instead of per-game statistics, to remove any discrepancies in playing time:

It’s obvious right off the bat that we’re dealing with two very different players here.

Kendrick Perkins fits the traditional big man mold. The lower left section of his graph dominates, indicating that he does the things expected of a strong interior presence: block shots, grab rebounds, and take high percentage shots.

He scored a career-high 13.8 points per 48 minutes (8.5 per game) last year, but in the Celtics’ system his defensive abilities are paramount.

Rasheed Wallace’s, on the other hand, points to a completely different style of play.

The lower shooting percentage is indicative of his tendency to play away from the basket. The stronger steals axis suggests that he’s much quicker than Perkins, and while he’s one or two rebounds shy of Perkins he makes up for it with a few extra points per game.

Wallace’s graph is actually more similar to those of Ron Artest and Hedo Turkoglu, both small forwards, than traditional power forwards—let alone centers.

With these differences in mind, let’s see how it affects the starting five overall:

This graph adds Wallace and Perkins’ statistics in with the other starters: Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett.

Not a lot is different, clearly, once everyone is accounted for. In most cases, swapping out one player will only make incremental difference to a lineup, and this is one of those cases.

But there are differences. The most evident change is the presence of a strong pivot with Perkins in the middle—the rebounds and FG% are up. Wallace, instead, makes them a more versatile team.

And for Boston, Perkins may actually be a better fit. The aging Celtics, minus Rondo, aren’t known for their quick first step driving into the paint—which Wallace opens up by spreading the floor.

Instead, the Irish have enough shooters on the perimeter that Perkins pounding the middle can be exactly what they need to keep opposing defenses honest.

In the end, if the Rasheed Wallace experiment works, his career could be reinvigorated as he jells with the team’s other stars; with his abilities on both ends of the floor, this Celtics starting five could be dangerous top-to-bottom.

If it fails, the Celts may have just added a sputtering, fizzling 34-year-old forward/center who wanders out of the post and led the league in technical fouls last year.

The great news for Doc Rivers and Boston fans is that they don’t have to choose one or the other. Perkins and Wallace are both on the roster, and will split minutes to keep opponents guessing.

That kind of depth can really make a difference for a team that already has a strong starting lineup.

Perhaps enough to get them back into an NBA Finals.

This is the third in a series of articles analyzing the offseason moves of the league’s elite teams, each using Spider Graphs. Check out the analysis of the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers.